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Garvin to the NFL

Kyle Liburd said:
Only if you believe his junior year was more indicative of his potential than his sophomore year. Lot of people do not believe that to be the case, hence why people wanted him to come back so he could return to form and improve. He would have another year of competition, weight training, practice & game film to review mistakes, and coaches who are invested in him.
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I think he was much better as a Sophomore, when he had 5.5 sacks, than his Junior Year, when he had 5.0 sacks. That's why I don't think a huge leap is a given.

Competition can sometimes work against you.

Trevon Hill had 3.5 sacks in 3 games his Junior Year. I'm sure he didn't see making 1 start and getting 4.5 sacks in 12 games this year as how it would play out when he transferred here. But Rousseau blew up and took that starting spot away from Hill. Hill didn't improve his stock at all.

Same thing could happen to Garvin next year. Rousseau has 1 DE spot on lock. What if Phillips is the real deal and takes the other DE spot? Garvin could be better next year, but still lose his starting spot, which certainly wouldn't help his stock at all.

I think the pros of Garvin returning are better than him going pro this year. But I think injuries, loss of playing time, leveling off or regressing are possible scenarios that need to be weighed in when making a decision.
 
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bshaw28 said:
I think he was much better as a Sophomore, when he had 5.5 sacks, than his Junior Year, when he had 5.0 sacks. That's why I don't think a huge leap is a given.

Competition can sometimes work against you.

Trevon Hill had 3.5 sacks in 3 games his Junior Year. I'm sure he didn't see making 1 start and getting 4.5 sacks in 12 games this year as how it would play out when he transferred here. But Rousseau blew up and took that starting spot away from Hill. Hill didn't improve his stock at all.

Same thing could happen to Garvin next year. Rousseau has 1 DE spot on lock. What if Phillips is the real deal and takes the other DE spot? Garvin could be better next year, but still lose his starting spot, which certainly wouldn't help his stock at all.

I think the pros of Garvin returning are better than him going pro this year. But I think injuries, loss of playing time, leveling off or regressing are possible scenarios that need to be weighed in when making a decision.
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I guess you want to be disingenuous by only listing sacks. He had 17 TFL compared to 9 last year. 60 tackles compared to 37. There was a night and day between the soph and junior versions of Garvin, whether you saw that or not. Garvin got 7 of his 9 TFL and 4 of his 5 sacks in the last 4 games of the season because he knew he needed better film because he had his mind made up that he was leaving to the NFL. He needed to bring that intensity all season.
 
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Kyle Liburd said:
I guess you want to be disingenuous by only listing sacks. He had 17 TFL compared to 9 last year. 60 tackles compared to 37. There was a night and day between the soph and junior versions of Garvin, whether you saw that or not. Garvin got 7 of his 9 TFL and 4 of his 5 sacks in the last 4 games of the season because he knew he needed better film because he had his mind made up that he was leaving to the NFL. He needed to bring that intensity all season.
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I definitely agree with you he played better his Sophomore year, put up better stats, and was just a better player. I also agree coming back his Senior year would benefit him, and he needs to prove he can give more consistent effort.

IMO - the formula of "Return for Senior Season + Have a Big Year = Get Drafted Higher" doesn't actually work near as often as people think it does.

Garvin's Sophomore Year
First 8 games - 40 tackles -14 TFL - 5.5 sacks
Last 5 games - 20 tackles - 3 TFL - 0 sacks

So he coasted or just was just unproductive for a chunk of his Sophomore season too. It just got worse as a Junior.

Garvin could very well have come back, give full effort, balled out his Senior season, and gotten drafted higher. I think that's a real possibility, but not a probability.

But why didn't he just give full effort, ball out, and turn pro his Junior season? What motivating factors would be there next year that weren't there this year? I doubt he just decided to turn pro in November. I'd suspect he probably was leaning strongly to turning pro well before this season started - and still ended up coasting most of the year.
 
Pretty straightforward: if it was clear Garvin gave MAX effort and his work ethic and effort was unquestionably there, but still had the same production then it would be obvious he should go. It was quite clear of the opposite though, and that’s why it makes more sense to stay and work hard and produce to have a better showing for the scouts.
 
bshaw28 said:
I definitely agree with you he played better his Sophomore year, put up better stats, and was just a better player. I also agree coming back his Senior year would benefit him, and he needs to prove he can give more consistent effort.

IMO - the formula of "Return for Senior Season + Have a Big Year = Get Drafted Higher" doesn't actually work near as often as people think it does.

Garvin's Sophomore Year
First 8 games - 40 tackles -14 TFL - 5.5 sacks
Last 5 games - 20 tackles - 3 TFL - 0 sacks

So he coasted or just was just unproductive for a chunk of his Sophomore season too. It just got worse as a Junior.

Garvin could very well have come back, give full effort, balled out his Senior season, and gotten drafted higher. I think that's a real possibility, but not a probability.

But why didn't he just give full effort, ball out, and turn pro his Junior season? What motivating factors would be there next year that weren't there this year? I doubt he just decided to turn pro in November. I'd suspect he probably was leaning strongly to turning pro well before this season started - and still ended up coasting most of the year.
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Might be better off that he left, people complain about a guy like Jeff Thomas saying he’s a cancer etc but garvin was FAR more lazy on the field and We didn’t see Thomas be lazy on game days. Garvin going to have to play hard consistently if he wants to stick in the league
 
brock said:
Might be better off that he left, people complain about a guy like Jeff Thomas saying he’s a cancer etc but garvin was FAR more lazy on the field and We didn’t see Thomas be lazy on game days. Garvin going to have to play hard consistently if he wants to stick in the league
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Man...Thomas will go down as one of the more frustrating Canes I can remember. Hard to believe we couldn't get more production out of his talent.
 
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bshaw28 said:
I definitely agree with you he played better his Sophomore year, put up better stats, and was just a better player. I also agree coming back his Senior year would benefit him, and he needs to prove he can give more consistent effort.

IMO - the formula of "Return for Senior Season + Have a Big Year = Get Drafted Higher" doesn't actually work near as often as people think it does.

Garvin's Sophomore Year
First 8 games - 40 tackles -14 TFL - 5.5 sacks
Last 5 games - 20 tackles - 3 TFL - 0 sacks

So he coasted or just was just unproductive for a chunk of his Sophomore season too. It just got worse as a Junior.

Garvin could very well have come back, give full effort, balled out his Senior season, and gotten drafted higher. I think that's a real possibility, but not a probability.

But why didn't he just give full effort, ball out, and turn pro his Junior season? What motivating factors would be there next year that weren't there this year? I doubt he just decided to turn pro in November. I'd suspect he probably was leaning strongly to turning pro well before this season started - and still ended up coasting most of the year.
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It’s not just about draft position. It’s also about being ready and sticking in the league. Another year of maturation matters when you are not a Day One pick.
 
DMoney said:
It’s not just about draft position. It’s also about being ready and sticking in the league. Another year of maturation matters when you are not a Day One pick.
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While I agree with that in theory, I don't know if there's any proof to that, and I don't know how much that really moves the needle. I think "maturity" in players is a very individual basis, and can be a slippery slope when trying to do a comparison.

But we've definitely had players go early like RJ McIntosh (physical maturity) or Garvin (mental maturity) that would benefit from more time.
 
bshaw28 said:
Man...Thomas will go down as one of the more frustrating Canes I can remember. Hard to believe we couldn't get more production out of his talent.
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I’ve mentioned this many times before. I’ve followed his career since freshmen year at East St Louis and I knew he was going to be a stud coming out of high school. It’s a **** shame he didn’t have a decent qb and a decent system to play in. Yes he has his faults and is a head case but man it has to be frustrating as **** to have such high expectations and barely get any touches. Hopefully he keeps his head on straight and makes in impact in the NFL.
 
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DMoney said:
It’s not just about draft position. It’s also about being ready and sticking in the league. Another year of maturation matters when you are not a Day One pick.
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I thought it would be interesting to take a closer look at this. This is is something I definitely agree with, because it sounds like it should be true, but wasn't sure if it actually was.

I think it's a very slippery slope to do this because:

Is a RS-Senior more prepared than a Senior?
Is a RS-Junior prepared the same as a Senior?
If 2 Juniors go pro early - but 1 Junior is a full year older than the other - is the older one more prepared?
Is a Junior who started 3 years more prepared than a Senior who only started his last year?

Is it age? Is it class? Is it playing time? Is it all 3 combined?

Here's our Defensive Lineman drafted since 2000, and their years played. Guys who left early are in bold & Practice Squad years counted as 0:

1st - Vince Wilfork (10) Damione Lewis (10) Jerome McDougle (5) William Joseph (6)
2nd - Calais Campbell (12) Michael Boireau (2)
3rd - Olivier Vernon (8) Andrew Williams (2) Allen Bailey (9) Chad Thomas (2)
4th - Jamaal Green (2) Orien Harris (3) Baraka Atkins (3) Kareem Brown (1)
5th - RJ McIntosh (2) Joe Jackson (1) Matt Walters (1)
6th - AQM (3) Anthony Chickillo (5)
7th - Kendrick Norton (0)

Undrafted - I put players that were invited to the NFL Combine but never played as a 0
Marcus Forston (2) - Antonio Dixon (4) - Ufomba Kamala, Olsen Pierre (3) - Derek Ham, Micanor Regis (2) - Gerald Willis, Trent Harris, Adewale Ojomo, Justin Renfrow, Joe Joseph, Dwayne Hendricks (1) - Cornelius Green, Javon Nanton (0)


A lot of ways you can slice this, but my takeaways are:

- Guys like McIntosh/Jackson/AQM could've been better with another year - but that's speculation. There's no way to measure it or tell for sure. Their careers aren't done so we still need to see how they play out - but all are just role players so far.
- There's a huge drop-off after the 3rd Round. Rounds 4 thru UFA - there's basically no difference. It's probably similar for other positions.
- This is only DL. I would imagine RB's would favor Juniors, QB's would favor Seniors - and the rest of the positions would look similar to DL.
- The best case for "Go Early" - Campbell & Vernon - were statistically better as Sophomores than Juniors
- The best case for "Stay & Develop" - Bailey & Thomas - were statistically the same their Junior & Senior year

IMO - there's nothing here that suggests your odds of playing longer are better by staying for your Senior season. Chick is the only Senior outside of the first 3 rounds to get that 2nd contract
 
We've had a historically bad run of coaches...but man, I can not stress enough that players like Garvin and others that leave just because are one of the key reasons why we suck as well. You have no upperclass experience on a team that always needs it and they are always checked out well in advance of the season. They are the types of kids that have senioritis August of their junior year. That's not conducive to winning.
 
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bshaw's post rings true to me. Unless you are a first day pick (and sometimes even then) the NFL is interested in measurables and potential. A year of wear and tear makes you less valuable to an NFL franchise, regardless of how many sacks you put up in your senior season.

Bottom line in the vast majority of cases: go and get paid.
 
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