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Gambling Talk: Canes vs gatta

I put 2K on us with a friend from work that went to UF, ****** bum was a cane growing up went to UF and switched up SMH
 
I think by kickoff it’ll be less than a touchdown. If we had a proven QB this game would be around a FG. Getting it at +7.5 seems like a steal, but we’ll see.

A lot of experts are bullish on UG taking a step back so I just can’t see losing by more than a score unless Jarren has a nightmarish game.
 
Poptimus said:
But if you have an old school bookie using printed out cards, you can make a killing chasing steam. Those guys don't really update their lines often at all so you can bet, say, Canes +8 when it's dropped to +6.5 and **** like that.
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Nothing really to add to the conversation - I just lol’d at “old school bookie” when thinking about how my guy booked my grandpas 5 dimes on the Jets +17 in Super Bowl III.
 
Money management for question for those that actually turn a profit gambling.

It would make sense if you do your due diligence for each game (few do) and you have an edge (as in you win more than 53% of the time) that you would bet the same amount for every game.

So if you bet $100 on 30 games and win say 19 you make about $80. Do this week after week, increase your account size, increase your bet size and instead of $80 you are soon making $800. All this assumes you have an edge and the discipline to manage your bets evenly.

Whereas if you bet big on games "you are sure about" eventually you will get slammed and lose it all.

I know most bet "for fun" and none of this applies but would like to hear your betting strategies you apply
 
Jedi Master Cane said:
I took Miami to win the NT at 150-1 back in January.

The plan is selling it on Prop Swap after a rise in the polls either after a UiF win or an ACCCG appearance. It gives a options to exit at different points in the season, assuming the team improves through the year.

William Hill has them 100-1, last time I checked.
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You got an excellent line. I put in back around the time that line came out on my book and I only got 100 to 1.
 
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Poptimus said:
Offshore just means online casinos. Using a bookie like that cook is a good way to bet into stale lines unless he's using a pay-per-head (pph) service where he's paying like $12 per week per player to some company in Costa Rica who creates a fake website that mirrors one of the offshore casino's odds. You may think your bookie has his own site. He doesn't.

But if you have an old school bookie using printed out cards, you can make a killing chasing steam. Those guys don't really update their lines often at all so you can bet, say, Canes +8 when it's dropped to +6.5 and **** like that.
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Interesting. I use a private bookie who I used to just get texted lines from and would text him back my bets. He often honored his lines throughout the day (with some exceptions) which I found really advantageous. Then a couple years ago he offered to have me migrate to a website exactly like you described above, Pop. Its freakin awesome in terms of what is offered. You can bet on everything under the moon and it has a sick live book as well. It's like having a full vegas style sportsbook on my phone. Amazing. But I do miss have the ability to bet on stale lines.

Anyways, I've long wondered how exactly that site interface works from his perspective. I dont deposit on the site like a bovada, we still square up privately at the end of the month like we did before. I just put all bets in now through the site. Appreciate you sharing that knowledge.
 
For_The_U said:
Interesting. I use a private bookie who I used to just get texted lines from and would text him back my bets. He often honored his lines throughout the day (with some exceptions) which I found really advantageous. Then a couple years ago he offered to have me migrate to a website exactly like you described above, Pop. Its freakin awesome in terms of what is offered. You can bet on everything under the moon and it has a sick live book as well. It's like having a full vegas style sportsbook on my phone. Amazing. But I do miss have the ability to bet on stale lines.

Anyways, I've long wondered how exactly that site interface works from his perspective. I dont deposit on the site like a bovada, we still square up privately at the end of the month like we did before. I just put all bets in now through the site. Appreciate you sharing that knowledge.
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Yeah, you’re using a PPH interface. I’ve been on both sides of the counter, that’s how I know (beyond the statute of limitations now). He has the ability to go in and one-off change lines. We used to do that, if a guy called or texted and asked “what’s the spread on the Florida game?” Or, “can my limit be raised on the UF game?” Guess what we’d do? We’d go in and raise it on the site half a point knowing that’s what side he wanted. Usually they’d ask when they wanted to know if we’d raise the limits for a game.
 
dsddcane said:
I had to get in a parlay yesterday. I took us +7 fiu +2.5 s.car -7 cincy -3 wake forest - 3.5
Than I got us even money & us over on season wins. Yall welcome
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Parlays are terrible bets. They’re especially bad if you bet on games where they spread is on the key number (the case in your Miami, South Carolina and Cinncinatti bets) since some books count the whole parlay as a loss if you get just one push. (The nicer books take the pushes out of the parlay, meaning that if you go 4-0-1 on the parlay they count it the same as winning a 4 game parlay.)

Also, why the **** would you bet a +2.5? You should bet the moneyline. Games are rarely decided by 1 or 2 points.

You are a terrible bettor.
 
TimeB0mb said:
I live in an communist state (Hawaii) with no casinos or sports books- anyone know of reputable online betting sites that won't steal your credit card and sell it to the Russians? I don't really care what the line is- as long as I bet on UF they are guaranteed to lose. I will make the sacrifice play of $100 just to jinx the Gators.
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Bookmaker.eu is extremely legit with a rock solid reputation.
 
Caneman2 said:
Parlays are terrible bets. They’re especially bad if you bet on games where they spread is on the key number (the case in your Miami, South Carolina and Cinncinatti bets) since some books count the whole parlay as a loss if you get just one push. (The nicer books take the pushes out of the parlay, meaning that if you go 4-0-1 on the parlay they count it the same as winning a 4 game parlay.)

Also, why the **** would you bet a +2.5? You should bet the moneyline. Games are rarely decided by 1 or 2 points.

You are a terrible bettor.
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Anyone who bets on a site that makes a parlay lose entirely if a leg pushes is an idiot.
 
Poptimus said:
Yeah, you’re using a PPH interface. I’ve been on both sides of the counter, that’s how I know (beyond the statute of limitations now). He has the ability to go in and one-off change lines. We used to do that, if a guy called or texted and asked “what’s the spread on the Florida game?” Or, “can my limit be raised on the UF game?” Guess what we’d do? We’d go in and raise it on the site half a point knowing that’s what side he wanted. Usually they’d ask when they wanted to know if we’d raise the limits for a game.
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Very interesting. So the people who host the site don't take a rake, they just get like a weekly fee? Are the PPH sites better overall for the bookie than taking bets directly from betters like I used to do with txt messages?
 
For_The_U said:
Very interesting. So the people who host the site don't take a rake, they just get like a weekly fee? Are the PPH sites better overall for the bookie than taking bets directly from betters like I used to do with txt messages?
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Yeah, the PPH sites just get a weekly fee. PPH sites help bookies because they track everything to help reduce player disputes. Plus the bookies choose what lines they want and set limits on everything (parlays should have lower limits than straight wagers) on the back end. The only drawback is the weekly fee per player, so you don’t want your client base to be low limit bettors and you don’t want them inactive for even a week to make it worthwhile.
 
Poptimus said:
Yeah, the PPH sites just get a weekly fee. PPH sites help bookies because they track everything to help reduce player disputes. Plus the bookies choose what lines they want and set limits on everything (parlays should have lower limits than straight wagers) on the back end. The only drawback is the weekly fee per player, so you don’t want your client base to be low limit bettors and you don’t want them inactive for even a week to make it worthwhile.
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Makes sense. I remember an issue one time where an account went inactive and it caused some frustrations. Now I know why. Thanks, Pop, always a pleasure chatting with you about this stuff.

Not sure you ever said... do you have any action in on our opener yet?
 
For_The_U said:
Makes sense. I remember an issue one time where an account went inactive and it caused some frustrations. Now I know why. Thanks, Pop, always a pleasure chatting with you about this stuff.

Not sure you ever said... do you have any action in on our opener yet?
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No action just yet for me. I’m only considering Miami plus the points or the Under, I like to bet late to make sure I don’t get down on the opposite of some major steam. I’m thinking I’ll probably do live betting for this game. I like to bet unders right after a score and bet overs right after a drought. Same with buying a side: I’ll wait until a team gives up a score to hop on. If UF should close -7.5 and they go up 7-0 early (God forbid), we should see some Miami +11 live. Buy low, sell high.
 
Poptimus said:
No action just yet for me. I’m only considering Miami plus the points or the Under, I like to bet late to make sure I don’t get down on the opposite of some major steam. I’m thinking I’ll probably do live betting for this game. I like to bet unders right after a score and bet overs right after a drought. Same with buying a side: I’ll wait until a team gives up a score to hop on. If UF should close -7.5 and they go up 7-0 early (God forbid), we should see some Miami +11 live. Buy low, sell high.
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Great thinking! I do that a lot with basketball (especially during the tourney). I'll be watching a game and, say, a heavy favorite closed at -10. The underdog comes out red hot and hits 5 of their first 6 shots and the favorite starts off cold and after a few mins the dog is up 12-4. Suddenly you can get a live lineof that same favorite at like -2. That there is a recipe to make some money, IMO. Obviously, only if you've been watching the game closely and you feel that score will even out as the odds of one team remaining hot all game and the other cold are low.
 
Novacane32000 said:
Money management for question for those that actually turn a profit gambling.

It would make sense if you do your due diligence for each game (few do) and you have an edge (as in you win more than 53% of the time) that you would bet the same amount for every game.

So if you bet $100 on 30 games and win say 19 you make about $80. Do this week after week, increase your account size, increase your bet size and instead of $80 you are soon making $800. All this assumes you have an edge and the discipline to manage your bets evenly.

Whereas if you bet big on games "you are sure about" eventually you will get slammed and lose it all.

I know most bet "for fun" and none of this applies but would like to hear your betting strategies you apply
Click to expand...

For bankroll management it's a good idea to think about using something called a Kelly Criterion Calculator to figure out the size of your bets. The basic idea is that if you know your bank roll size and your expected win % it will give you an average bet size to maintain bank roll for maximum profit. For example I think if you had a $1000 bank roll, and expected to pick correctly 55% (which would be professional level success) your average bet unit size would only be something like $14.

How to Use Kelly Criterion for Betting

Bettors should always look for a mathematical edge rather than rely on their impulses. Learning how to use the Kelly Criterion, for example, is a great way for bettors to determine how much they should stake. Read on to find out.
www.pinnacle.com www.pinnacle.com
 
I'm getting really interested in this Miami Team Total OVER 20.5 -110

I think Enos can figure out 3 TDs against this defense. Last year South Carolina, Missouri and Tennessee averaged 32 pts against a defense that lost a lot of production.
 
Caneman2 said:
Parlays are terrible bets. They’re especially bad if you bet on games where they spread is on the key number (the case in your Miami, South Carolina and Cinncinatti bets) since some books count the whole parlay as a loss if you get just one push. (The nicer books take the pushes out of the parlay, meaning that if you go 4-0-1 on the parlay they count it the same as winning a 4 game parlay.)

Also, why the **** would you bet a +2.5? You should bet the moneyline. Games are rarely decided by 1 or 2 points.

You are a terrible bettor.
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That last point....LOL

You give someone advice that literally no serious bettor would give and call the guy terrible. Only on CIS
 
Looks like most online books have moved the line to +7.5. Late surge of Gator money is a good thing.

BetPoints has it at MIA +7.5 -105
 
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