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Gambling Talk: Canes vs gatta

dsddcane said:
I have a place in southern highlands so it's not too far at all. But for me I've either gotta be in a really ****** mood that rhino sapphires or crazy horse 3 cant fix or just not be able to sleep for me to step in there.
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It’s definitely not a great vibe and caters to horse racing, but I like that they never turned down my bets and they are one of the few Vegas joints to post basketball odds the day before the game for regular season games.
 
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dsddcane said:
I have a place in southern highlands so it's not too far at all. But for me I've either gotta be in a really ****** mood that rhino sapphires or crazy horse 3 cant fix or just not be able to sleep for me to step in there.
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I used to have a place in Red Rock CC. I remember when Southern Highlands started building.
 
Jassid82 said:
I like the UM +3.5 first half and the +7 for the game for big money.

Gonna go light on the ML. I lost a lot of money on these guys last year ESPECIALLY that UVA game. So they have to earn my faith back.
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Same for me. Lost a lot of money betting on us last year. Thankfully I made a good chunk of it back betting Wisky in the bowl game.
Although I couldn’t help but to take +7.5 this week.
 
Thinking of dropping a "happiness bet" taking those phaggots with the moneyline.

I'm too emotionally invested in this game. I have to walk out of there with either a win, or money. I'll gladly sacrifice money to the football gods in exchange for a win. I'll buy us victory boys.
 
RVACane said:
I used to have a place in Red Rock CC. I remember when Southern Highlands started building.
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You're aging yourself brother. For me my two favorite neighborhoods out here(I'm thinking bout picking up something as an investment property)is southern highlands and the cliffs. Cliffs is brand new and very modern.
 
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Jedi Master Cane said:
Thinking of dropping a "happiness bet" taking those phaggots with the moneyline.

I'm too emotionally invested in this game. I have to walk out of there with either a win, or money. I'll gladly sacrifice money to the football gods in exchange for a win. I'll buy us victory boys.
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I am a terrible gambler and lose 100% of the time. So I'm considering putting money on the Gators, since that basically guarantees they will lose.
 
I like the under also for the Gator game but nothing is for sure.

Some reasons to like the under
---The two OL in this game combine for the fewest OL starts of any game opening week. Not even close, UF is 3rd from the bottom UM is 8th. 87 teams bring back more OL starts than UM and UF combined.
---Miami starts a RSF with 3 career atts at QB
---Miami was #105 in total O Last Year.
---Both teams bring back most of their D.

Some reasons not to like the under
---UF brings back a 3 yr QB starter who finished last year strong
---Sans the OL ,UF brings back virtually everyone on O

I am going to guess the line moves to maybe +8 or 8.5 by game time.
Gates have the edge on paper.
 
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I took Miami to win the NT at 150-1 back in January.

The plan is selling it on Prop Swap after a rise in the polls either after a UiF win or an ACCCG appearance. It gives a options to exit at different points in the season, assuming the team improves through the year.

William Hill has them 100-1, last time I checked.
 
A couple other things I forgot to mention earlier:

1. Vegas follows offshore, offshore doesn't follow Vegas. Every Vegas casino is using Don Best behind the counter and checking the offshore lines. If you go up to the counter and want to bet on an obscure game like UC-Irvine against Pepperdine and you want to bet 4 figures, they're calling over the manager, triple checking Don Best to make sure they're not offering a stale line, and probably limiting you to $500 or so. You don't have to worry about this with the major sports, especially the day of the game, but those are the most efficient markets and harder to win at.

2. Some casinos move on air and will adjust their lines simply because they're staring at the Don Best screen and see the lines starting to move at other casinos. They're thinking "oh crap, we're about to get hit with a serious bet on this, better alter our lines". Certain casinos will not move their lines on air: if the line moves, they took a sizable bet or a bet from a "respect" account they've profiled. Naturally, if you know what casinos don't move on air, those are the ones to pay attention to. I couldn't care less about Bovada, sportsbook.ag, or those mickey mouse casinos like Bet Islands, Bet Revolution, etc. Chasing steam because you're following a line that moved on air is completely meaningless. The point is to tail the sharps and you're tailing nothing but casino fear.
 
Novacane32000 said:
I like the under also for the Gator game but nothing is for sure.

Some reasons to like the under
---The two OL in this game combine for the fewest OL starts of any game opening week. Not even close, UF is 3rd from the bottom UM is 8th. 87 teams bring back more OL starts than UM and UF combined.
---Miami starts a RSF with 3 career atts at QB
---Miami was #105 in total O Last Year.
---Both teams bring back most of their D.

Some reasons not to like the under
---UF brings back a 3 yr QB starter who finished last year strong
---Sans the OL ,UF brings back virtually everyone on O

I am going to guess the line moves to maybe +8 or 8.5 by game time.
Gates have the edge on paper.
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Poptimus said:
A couple other things I forgot to mention earlier:

1. Vegas follows offshore, offshore doesn't follow Vegas. Every Vegas casino is using Don Best behind the counter and checking the offshore lines. If you go up to the counter and want to bet on an obscure game like UC-Irvine against Pepperdine and you want to bet 4 figures, they're calling over the manager, triple checking Don Best to make sure they're not offering a stale line, and probably limiting you to $500 or so. You don't have to worry about this with the major sports, especially the day of the game, but those are the most efficient markets and harder to win at.

2. Some casinos move on air and will adjust their lines simply because they're staring at the Don Best screen and see the lines starting to move at other casinos. They're thinking "oh crap, we're about to get hit with a serious bet on this, better alter our lines". Certain casinos will not move their lines on air: if the line moves, they took a sizable bet or a bet from a "respect" account they've profiled. Naturally, if you know what casinos don't move on air, those are the ones to pay attention to. I couldn't care less about Bovada, sportsbook.ag, or those mickey mouse casinos like Bet Islands, Bet Revolution, etc. Chasing steam because you're following a line that moved on air is completely meaningless. The point is to tail the sharps and you're tailing nothing but casino fear.
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Thank you for all the info/posts!

I'm lost in this new world of offshore, etc..

Much easier when the cook at the Italian restaurant down the street gave me line updates everyday ;)
 
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CandideCane said:
Thank you for all the info/posts!

I'm lost in this new world of offshore, etc..

Much easier when the cook at the Italian restaurant down the street gave me line updates everyday ;)
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Offshore just means online casinos. Using a bookie like that cook is a good way to bet into stale lines unless he's using a pay-per-head (pph) service where he's paying like $12 per week per player to some company in Costa Rica who creates a fake website that mirrors one of the offshore casino's odds. You may think your bookie has his own site. He doesn't.

But if you have an old school bookie using printed out cards, you can make a killing chasing steam. Those guys don't really update their lines often at all so you can bet, say, Canes +8 when it's dropped to +6.5 and **** like that.
 
I'm bullish on the year. Took Miami o 9 wins at +120 instead of o8.5 at -140

Smallish money line bet on the UF game at +240 and a sizable UM bet +7.5 at -115. Not baller sizable, just me sizable. It may lose, but I think it is a good bet.

I can't bet over/under on games the Canes play because I hate being conflicted. (If Miami scores again I lose an under)
 
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GuptaKnows said:
They will allow you to bet 50K on openers?
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Of course they will I use to sit in the big boys room in LV Hilton now called Westgate. Most of the time it was just 20k bets or so. At the Hilton that would only be a small line move if any. A couple times a season you'd see 5-6 point moves, just the casino trying to get money on the other side. It could be a rich drunk coming in and betting a game or it could be a smart gambler, only the casino knows. That's why when you're in Vegas you shop all the casino's. The real rich guys are not sitting in the big boy room either, many have front men. Some real wise guys are banned from many Casino's.
 
Poptimus said:
A couple other things I forgot to mention earlier:

1. Vegas follows offshore, offshore doesn't follow Vegas. Every Vegas casino is using Don Best behind the counter and checking the offshore lines. If you go up to the counter and want to bet on an obscure game like UC-Irvine against Pepperdine and you want to bet 4 figures, they're calling over the manager, triple checking Don Best to make sure they're not offering a stale line, and probably limiting you to $500 or so. You don't have to worry about this with the major sports, especially the day of the game, but those are the most efficient markets and harder to win at.

2. Some casinos move on air and will adjust their lines simply because they're staring at the Don Best screen and see the lines starting to move at other casinos. They're thinking "oh crap, we're about to get hit with a serious bet on this, better alter our lines". Certain casinos will not move their lines on air: if the line moves, they took a sizable bet or a bet from a "respect" account they've profiled. Naturally, if you know what casinos don't move on air, those are the ones to pay attention to. I couldn't care less about Bovada, sportsbook.ag, or those mickey mouse casinos like Bet Islands, Bet Revolution, etc. Chasing steam because you're following a line that moved on air is completely meaningless. The point is to tail the sharps and you're tailing nothing but casino fear.
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Yup some small games they do limit how much you can bet or a least they use too. Those are some of the best games to bet. That's where you can find the off lines. I've been hit with that before @ Samstown.
 
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