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Gambling Talk: Canes vs gatta

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GuptaKnows said:
People who do this for a living are betting a lot more than 5K.
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You'd be surprised. And also, regardless, this is a discussion on a message board. I doubt any of us are doing this for a living. If you are, my hats off to you. I love the grind, but I couldn't do this for my ability to eat.

How many guys betting on a Sunday at Southpoint do it for a legitimate living? As in, their only source of income is sports handicapping? It's an incredibly small percentage.
 
I want to know how all you degenerate gamblers did on the opening game last season vs LSU when we all knew we were poised to have a great season? I’m just stirring the ****. Not a gambler for many reasons. But good luck!
 
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You can chase steam using several outs as a lone wolf and you will make money over a large sample if done properly, but you have to be a slave to the screen and possess impeccable discipline. Lines don’t just move linearly, so you have to get a feel for when the move was a setup to get the steam chasers to follow before the originator gets down on the “real” side at better odds. If Bama is playing Vanderbilt and the opening line immediately drops in Vandy’s favor, red flags should go off. Like who the fvck is in a rush to bet Vandy? You also have to be incredibly fast and check that the move wasn’t due to some major injury/suspension announcement. If not, you’ll bet into a line you think sharps hit when in fact the casino is simply adjusting the odds based on news.

And you shouldn’t get greedy and start parlaying “safe” moneylines with spreads. It’s tempting when you can buy points to justify it by getting down at the original line the sharps ostensibly took, and still pay just -110 (or even +EV) because you’re parlaying it with some -1800 ML. But mostly you’ll have trouble chasing steam when you can’t bet the same amount on each game. It’s just flipping a coin with the odds slightly in your favor rather than the casino’s.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
You'd be surprised. And also, regardless, this is a discussion on a message board. I doubt any of us are doing this for a living. If you are, my hats off to you. I love the grind, but I couldn't do this for my ability to eat.

How many guys betting on a Sunday at Southpoint do it for a legitimate living? As in, their only source of income is sports handicapping? It's an incredibly small percentage.
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I don't do it for a living. You are correct, 99.99% of people don't make money long term betting sports. Although I've heard South Point doesn't ban winners like every other sportsbook in that town, the amount they will take on bets is nowhere close to an offshore shop like Pinnacle.
 
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CAT5Coming said:
Finally time to step up to the window and place your bets, what's everyone looking at from a gambling angle? What season win total over/unders you guys looking at? Any great prop bets on the game?

I'm seeing...

Miami Season Reg. Season Wins o/u 8.5 -135
Game line seems to be holding at Miami +7 -110
Game Total o/u between 47.5 -48.5
Miami Money line +230
1st Half Line Miami +3.5 -105
1st Half Total U23.5 -105
Miami Team Total O/U 20.5O -110
Florida Team Total O/U 27.5 -120
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I had to get in a parlay yesterday. I took us +7 fiu +2.5 s.car -7 cincy -3 wake forest - 3.5
Than I got us even money & us over on season wins. Yall welcome
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
That's not correct. Most +ev bettors place a large number of their bets immediately after the lines come out, obviously if they disagree with what the line should be. That's why you'll hear the guys who are good at this say "I don't bet teams, I bet numbers". During the season, the limits are not low when the lines are first announced. If you're talking about lines for Week 1 that come out in the summer, yes. You're 100% correct, those are low limit lines. But for example after the Saturday of Week 4, then week 5's lines will post early Sunday. There's usually no different limits at that time than there are later in the week. And if they are, you're talking about 0.1% of bettors who those will effect.

Walk into Southpoint with $5k on Sunday morning and ask to get down on a game for the following Saturday. They'll take it. Now, if you want $100k, that may be a different story.
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Only reason to walk into south point period is if it's late night & all the other books are closed.
 
dsddcane said:
I had to get in a parlay yesterday. I took us +7 fiu +2.5 s.car -7 cincy -3 wake forest - 3.5
Than I got us even money & us over on season wins. Yall welcome
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LOL great minds think alike. I put in a week 1 long shot parlay months ago when lines first came out. Miami+7.5/GT+33.5/Utah-230/FSU-180. Pays just over 6x.
 
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Poptimus said:
That line moved heavy and late in LSU’s favor.
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Interesting. No judgment on those who bet (like I said I was just stirring the ****). It’s not my thing. But I hope those here who bet do well. Will see what the line does as we get closer.
 
I still like the under at 47,5 for this game and Miami +3,5 for the first half, Miami money line might be worth looking into too. I will probably not touch this game, just the emotional rollercoaster will be enough for me no need to put financial risk in it
 
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For_The_U said:
I'm on Miami+8 (I bought it up to 8 when it was at 7.5 months ago) which I absolutely love! I'm also in for smaller on the Miami moneyline at +250. I think there's a 50% chance, easy, that we win the game outright. Canes getting 8pts is my favorite play of the entire week 1 schedule. My book right now has Miami+7.5 again (at -115) and the ML is back up to +245. I like either of those plays.

I'm also on Miami over 8.5 total wins and turds under 9. So, needless to say, the opener will be big for both of those as well.

I like the under, but I liked it much more at 52.5 where it opened. If I had to bet the over or the under at 47 (which is where my book is right now) I'd take the under still. But I'm staying away from the point total.
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I like us on the ML quite a bit, we're a very live dog. I am also on over 8.5 wins.
 
Poptimus said:
South Point is solid but it’s so far that I prefer Westgate so that if I need to run elsewhere for a better line I can.
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I have a place in southern highlands so it's not too far at all. But for me I've either gotta be in a really ****** mood that rhino sapphires or crazy horse 3 cant fix or just not be able to sleep for me to step in there.
 
I like the UM +3.5 first half and the +7 for the game for big money.

Gonna go light on the ML. I lost a lot of money on these guys last year ESPECIALLY that UVA game. So they have to earn my faith back.
 
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