Gambling Talk: Canes vs gatta

[CAT5Coming]

Finally time to step up to the window and place your bets, what's everyone looking at from a gambling angle? What season win total over/unders you guys looking at? Any great prop bets on the game?

I'm seeing...

Miami Season Reg. Season Wins o/u 8.5 -135
Game line seems to be holding at Miami +7 -110
Game Total o/u between 47.5 -48.5
Miami Money line +230
1st Half Line Miami +3.5 -105
1st Half Total U23.5 -105
Miami Team Total O/U 20.5O -110
Florida Team Total O/U 27.5 -120

 

[Brandinho]

Bought in at +7.5, like that number a lot for us. Either way it'll be a 1 possession game in my mind.

 

[Stylie]

Got it at + 21 with an idiot Gator fan. Doubt he pays up.

 

[South Side Chi Cane]

For all you gambling guys, I am not one and have only cursory knowledge, but I have talked to a lot of gamblers and they tell me about this phenomena where the line can sometimes point to a winner depending on how it moves( almost like an omen). So I guess my question is, what does us being plus 7 mean at this point besides the obvious ???

 

[Brandinho]

For all you gambling guys, I am not one and have only cursory knowledge, but I have talked to a lot of gamblers and they tell me about this phenomena where the line can sometimes point to a winner depending on how it moves( almost like an omen). So I guess my question is, what does us being plus 7 mean at this point besides the obvious ???

Nah, modern sportsbook use a bunch of both qualitative and quantitative data to source their lines. For example, Florida gets a bump for more returning starters, an upperclassman QB, a likely 60/40-70/30 split at this "neutral" site. They're the favorite for a bunch of reasons.

Line movement depends on money wagered on both sides. The line dropped form Florida -8.5 drop to -6.5 because it is such a terrible gambling number. You can see this to be true as once it got to +6.5 Miami (an equally terrible line), it jumped back up to 7 or 7.5 which is where it'll likely settle.

 

[Canedog]

I bet everything I own and could borrow on the under at 50.5.

 

[South Side Chi Cane]

Nah, modern sportsbook use a bunch of both qualitative and quantitative data to source their lines. For example, Florida gets a bump for more returning starters, an upperclassman QB, a likely 60/50-70/30 split at this "neutral" site. They're the favorite for a bunch of reasons.

Line movement depends on money wagered on both sides. The line dropped form Florida -8.5 drop to -6.5 because it is such a terrible gambling number. You can see this to be true as once it got to +6.5 Miami (an equally terrible line), it jumped back up to 7 or 7.5 which is where it'll likely settle.

Thanks for that !

 

[BigDikCane]

we will win big. plus we have more fans

 

[For_The_U]

For all you gambling guys, I am not one and have only cursory knowledge, but I have talked to a lot of gamblers and they tell me about this phenomena where the line can sometimes point to a winner depending on how it moves( almost like an omen). So I guess my question is, what does us being plus 7 mean at this point besides the obvious ???

What you are referring to is known as chasing steam. Here is a good explanation:

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Online Betting is the ultimate sports betting coach. With tips, tools and expertise, we will find you the best sportsbooks and coach you to betting success.

www.onlinebetting.com

Whether you agree with the concept or not, suffice it to say, sportsbooks have been known to ban gamblers who are openly chasing steam. So IMO there is some merit to it.

It is generally a concept that only comes into play on very late line moves. It usually reflects a major late play by sharps.

I don't think it has any application to the current Miami/**** line.

 

[Fzac75]

For all you gambling guys, I am not one and have only cursory knowledge, but I have talked to a lot of gamblers and they tell me about this phenomena where the line can sometimes point to a winner depending on how it moves( almost like an omen). So I guess my question is, what does us being plus 7 mean at this point besides the obvious ???

The belief is that the “wise guys” lay their money in the end, so if the line starts going down “wise guys” are putting money on Miami expecting us to definitely cover or win, while if t goes up close to game time obviously the opposite. And this all under the belief the guys on the “inside” know something or the “smart money” pouring in to bank

Again supposedly

 

[Fzac75]

What you are referring to is known as chasing steam. Here is a good explanation:

Free Expert Sports Picks | Best Odds & Sportsbook Free Bets

Online Betting is the ultimate sports betting coach. With tips, tools and expertise, we will find you the best sportsbooks and coach you to betting success.

www.onlinebetting.com

Whether you agree with the concept or not, suffice it to say, sportsbooks have been known to ban gamblers who are openly chasing steam. So IMO there is some merit to it.

It is generally a concept that only comes into play on very late line moves. It usually reflects a major late play by sharps.

I don't think it has any application to the current Miami/**** line.

^^^^^^^ this
Ok what @For_The_U just said while I was typing

 

[Brandinho]

The belief is that the “wise guys” lay their money in the end, so if the line starts going down “wise guys” are putting money on Miami expecting us to definitely cover or win, while if t goes up close to game time obviously the opposite. And this all under the belief the guys on the “inside” know something or the “smart money” pouring in to bank

Again supposedly

This used to be common practice but it's not the same anymore. Far too many bettors in the marketplace now to make chasing points following the sharp money worthwhile.

 

[For_The_U]

Finally time to step up to the window and place your bets, what's everyone looking at from a gambling angle? What season win total over/unders you guys looking at? Any great prop bets on the game?

I'm seeing...

Miami Season Reg. Season Wins o/u 8.5 -135
Game line seems to be holding at Miami +7 -110
Game Total o/u between 47.5 -48.5
Miami Money line +230
1st Half Line Miami +3.5 -105
1st Half Total U23.5 -105
Miami Team Total O/U 20.5O -110
Florida Team Total O/U 27.5 -120

I'm on Miami+8 (I bought it up to 8 when it was at 7.5 months ago) which I absolutely love! I'm also in for smaller on the Miami moneyline at +250. I think there's a 50% chance, easy, that we win the game outright. Canes getting 8pts is my favorite play of the entire week 1 schedule. My book right now has Miami+7.5 again (at -115) and the ML is back up to +245. I like either of those plays.

I'm also on Miami over 8.5 total wins and turds under 9. So, needless to say, the opener will be big for both of those as well.

I like the under, but I liked it much more at 52.5 where it opened. If I had to bet the over or the under at 47 (which is where my book is right now) I'd take the under still. But I'm staying away from the point total.

 

[streetja]

Got the over/under at 50 and put a sizable bet on the under. At 47.5 now. ****ed up back in July by not pulling the trigger when it was at 52.5.

 

[For_The_U]

This used to be common practice but it's not the same anymore. Far too many bettors in the marketplace now to make chasing points following the sharp money worthwhile.

I agree with that, KBC. I never was able to buy into the concept much myself as it simply goes against logic to me and I have an overly rational brain. But I will say, some of the gamblers I respect the most absolutely believe in the concept, so much so that it's made me start to accept that there is some merit to it. @Poptimus has shared some excellent thoughts on the idea of steam before on this forum.

We'll have to start a weekly gambling thread on here again this year. I enjoyed that a lot last season.

 

[scrantoncane]

The belief is that the “wise guys” lay their money in the end, so if the line starts going down “wise guys” are putting money on Miami expecting us to definitely cover or win, while if t goes up close to game time obviously the opposite. And this all under the belief the guys on the “inside” know something or the “smart money” pouring in to bank

Again supposedly

To the contrary, early money is generally a better indicator of a bad line. When the opening line comes out Sunday night, sharps will sniff out the bad lines and hammer them until the market corrects them. Then the line settles, and moves a little here and there according to action at certain shops, large wagers, wagers by respected bettors, etc.

I say generally because (1) there are certainly gameday bets that come in and move the line, which are (2) generally because the sharps think the opening line will move in the other direction, and they will get a better number by waiting.

I am not too concerned about this game going back up to 7.5 after Jarren got named the starter. It was around all summer for the market to get it set properly. In fact, it opened at 8/8.5 and came down - that, in my opinion, is a better indicator of what sharp money thought... too many points.

I got some +7.5, more +7 (couldn't live with myself if I had to take 6.5, being that ill be at the game), and a decent amount of under 50.5.

I will probably also play the win total over if I can find a good price. That is basically a ML canes bet, cause if they beat the gators there is no way they dont win 9.

 

[The Owl]

To the contrary, early money is generally a better indicator of a bad line. When the opening line comes out Sunday night, sharps will sniff out the bad lines and hammer them until the market corrects them. Then the line settles, and moves a little here and there according to action at certain shops, etc.

This isn't true. Why would people with an actual edge be betting into extremely low limit lines? That makes zero sense. People who actually do this for a living have to wait for the limits to increase before it makes it worthwhile for them to bet.

 

[For_The_U]

This isn't true. Why would people with an actual edge be betting into low limit lines? That makes zero sense. People who actually do this for a living have to wait for the limits to increase before it makes it worthwhile for them to bet.

I think he is talking about weekly lines, not lines set months out. I don't have a limit on the CFB lines that get released on Sundays during the season.

 

[The Owl]

I think he is talking about weekly lines, not lines set months out. I don't have a limit on the CFB lines that get released on Sundays during the season.

They will allow you to bet 50K on openers?

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

This isn't true. Why would people with an actual edge be betting into low limit lines? That makes zero sense. People who actually do this for a living have to wait for the limits to increase before it makes it worthwhile for them to bet.

That's not correct. Most +ev bettors place a large number of their bets immediately after the lines come out, obviously if they disagree with what the line should be. That's why you'll hear the guys who are good at this say "I don't bet teams, I bet numbers". During the season, the limits are not low when the lines are first announced. If you're talking about lines for Week 1 that come out in the summer, yes. You're 100% correct, those are low limit lines. But for example after the Saturday of Week 4, then week 5's lines will post early Sunday. There's usually no different limits at that time than there are later in the week. And if they are, you're talking about 0.1% of bettors who those will effect.

Walk into Southpoint with $5k on Sunday morning and ask to get down on a game for the following Saturday. They'll take it. Now, if you want $100k, that may be a different story.