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Gamblers- Week 6

Well, I was wrong. We are now -14 vs. F$U at Pinnacle. I'll happily admit I did not anticipate this line move. If this holds, this game will be a bloodbath for sure. Another reason why it's best to wait and see how the line moves before betting.

Someone bet a huge wager on us this morning at 10:11am. Pinnacle moved the line from -13 straight to -14, without even going to -13.5 and the ML price rose from -445 to -572 in one swift move. That is....insanely great to see.
 
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Gatorhater said:
Interesting to see stock market lingo used in gambling- resistance, support, range, confirmation. I always consider the market to be the biggest casino in world, cheating and house edge included.
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You can make money gambling if you put the work and research in along with proper money management on bets. If you treat gambling like a job and never ever go all in on any one bet,it can be done. Stock market traders (not investors) usually do not risk more than 1%-2% on any one trade
 
Novacane32000 said:
Texas,having no big play ability,may get slaughtered vs OU. Only chance they have is in a low scoring game.
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There was a major move towards Texas today so I'm still considering it.

Texas has won the game or lost by exactly 5 each of the last 5 years, even when OU had Mayfield or when Texas had Strong as coach. +14 is very tempting with a teaser.
 
I just don't see LSU losing to UF unless Burrow absolutely ****s himself. It's basically going to be Burrow vs. Franks as I think both defensive lines will be so focused on stopping the run. I'll take Joe in that duel every time.
 
LSU is now just -1 vs. Florida.

This makes zero sense to any of us, which is why I would not recommend betting LSU. A move from -3.5 to -1 is huge with no major injury announcement. I'd wait to see if it pops up a bit in LSU's favor because, while that would indicate some sharps favor LSU, the odds of losing the bet by snagging LSU at -2 or LSU -1.5 (if it rises) instead of -1 is extremely low.
 
Poptimus said:
LSU is now just -1 vs. Florida.

This makes zero sense to any of us, which is why I would not recommend betting LSU. A move from -3.5 to -1 is huge with no major injury announcement. I'd wait to see if it pops up a bit in LSU's favor because, while that would indicate some sharps favor LSU, the odds of losing the bet by snagging LSU at -2 or LSU -1.5 (if it rises) instead of -1 is extremely low.
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So the play is Florida ML or tease them to get a TD in points? That’s what I’m thinking.
 
BeastMode said:
So the play is Florida ML or tease them to get a TD in points? That’s what I’m thinking.
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A 6.5 point teaser to get UF +7.5 looks good now, but rarely do these lines move linearly without some sort of reversal. I'd hate nothing more than to bet UF now and then watch this line climb back to LSU -2.5 before Saturday morning. I'm waiting until Friday night at the earliest, but this is definitely a play I'm watching along with Texas, Old Dominion (which has now dropped in ODU's favor), NC State, and Clemson. I'll probably pick two of those for a teaser.

Florida ML at -105 or +100 is definitely better than Florida +1 -110. You're saving 5 or 10 cents on the off-chance that they lose by exactly one point. But I'm just looking at it for a teaser.
 
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Poptimus said:
LSU is now just -1 vs. Florida.

This makes zero sense to any of us, which is why I would not recommend betting LSU. A move from -3.5 to -1 is huge with no major injury announcement. I'd wait to see if it pops up a bit in LSU's favor because, while that would indicate some sharps favor LSU, the odds of losing the bet by snagging LSU at -2 or LSU -1.5 (if it rises) instead of -1 is extremely low.
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Ugh! I put mine in earlier in the week at LSU-2.5 as I really thought that line was going to go higher. ****.

I still think LSU rolls, regardless of line movements. Line movements, while telling, obviously cannot predict the outcome of a football game. And ultimately, I think Florida sucks donkey balls.
 
For_The_U said:
Ugh! I put mine in earlier in the week at LSU-2.5 as I really thought that line was going to go higher. ****.

I still think LSU rolls, regardless of line movements. Line movements, while telling, obviously cannot predict the outcome of a football game. And ultimately, I think Florida sucks donkey balls.
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If it was as easy as just watching line moves, we'd all get rich following them. But they are right more often than they are not, by enough of a margin that if you try chasing steam in Vegas you will get banned or limited. And if you try chasing steam online they'll simply confiscate your account. They know you have the edge, it's like counting cards for sports. Still a ton of time before that LSU/UF game to see a big move the other way, though.
 
What we looking like tonight for Thursday night games?. Where yall at with it?. I like Tulsa covering and Troy.
Will do a parlay with: Tulsa rl, Tulsa/Houston Game over, Troy rl
 
Poptimus said:
If it was as easy as just watching line moves, we'd all get rich following them. But they are right more often than they are not, by enough of a margin that if you try chasing steam in Vegas you will get banned or limited. And if you try chasing steam online they'll simply confiscate your account. They know you have the edge, it's like counting cards for sports. Still a ton of time before that LSU/UF game to see a big move the other way, though.
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Very well said, Pop.
 
gogeta4 said:
What we looking like tonight for Thursday night games?. Where yall at with it?. I like Tulsa covering and Troy.
Will do a parlay with: Tulsa rl, Tulsa/Houston Game over, Troy rl
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I don't like anything tonight myself. Don't trust any of the dogs; lines are all too high on the favorites.
 
Poptimus said:
Well, I was wrong. We are now -14 vs. F$U at Pinnacle. I'll happily admit I did not anticipate this line move. If this holds, this game will be a bloodbath for sure. Another reason why it's best to wait and see how the line moves before betting.

Someone bet a huge wager on us this morning at 10:11am. Pinnacle moved the line from -13 straight to -14, without even going to -13.5 and the ML price rose from -445 to -572 in one swift move. That is....insanely great to see.
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Don't agree with this at all and anyone who knows the importance of getting the best number wouldn't either. The point is to beat people to the line not wait until after the line move when all the value is gone unless you are waiting to get a better number on the opposite side of the line move. Steam chasing is a sure fire way to lose all your money. Anyone who is simply betting in the direction of line movements after they have already moved is 100% a -EV bettor.
 
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GuptaKnows said:
Don't agree with this at all and anyone who knows the importance of getting the best number wouldn't either. The point is to beat people to the line not wait until after the line move where all the value is gone unless you are trying to bet the other side of the line move. Terrible advice to wait to bet the same side as the line move after it has already moved. Steam chasing is a sure fire way to lose all your money.
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Of course it's important to get the best number, but if you aren't the originator of the line move you'll never know when to time it. Letting the line marinate to get a feel for which direction it's settling is best because, take LSU/UF, we know the sharp money is on UF. The odds of the steam being right are significantly greater than the odds of Getting UF +1 and losing because you didn't get UF +2.5.

If chasing steam wasn't a profitable venture then tell me why you'll get banned for doing it at any casino (I've been banned from Pinnacle and limited for chasing steam at the Stratosphere, South Point, Mirage, Caesar's, Riviera, the Hilton, etc). But it's hard to do, the first line moves are often head fakes. That's why I let the lines marinate a bit and then bet if I agree with it. Will I lay -7.5 when I could have had -6.5? Obviously not. But yeah, taking +1 instead of +2.5? I'll do that every time.
 
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gogeta4 said:
What we looking like tonight for Thursday night games?. Where yall at with it?. I like Tulsa covering and Troy.
Will do a parlay with: Tulsa rl, Tulsa/Houston Game over, Troy rl
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Not a fan of either college game. I like the Pats to cover. I may just bet the 1st half Pats -6.5. Short weeks and colts are banged up on offense. I don’t see how they keep it close. I’ll probably bet on some hockey games also.
 
Poptimus said:
Of course it's important to get the best number, but if you aren't the originator of the line move you'll never know when to time it. Letting the line marinate to get a feel for which direction it's settling is best because, take LSU/UF, we know the sharp money is on UF. The odds of the steam being right are significantly greater than the odds of Getting UF +1 and losing because you didn't get UF +2.5.

If chasing steam wasn't a profitable venture then tell me why you'll get banned for doing it at any casino (I've been banned from Pinnacle and limited for chasing steam at the Stratosphere, South Point, Mirage, Caesar's, Riviera, the Hilton, etc). But it's hard to do, the first line moves are often head fakes. That's why I let the lines marinate a bit and then bet if I agree with it. Will I lay -7.5 when I could have had -6.5? Obviously not. But yeah, taking +1 instead of +2.5? I'll do that every time.
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LOL so you are telling you got banned from Pinnacle but some of the sharper bettors around have continuously been able to get down with them? If you aren't a line originator you aren't making money long term. I find it laughable people think beating these markets is this easy lol. These are some of the slimmest edge markets on the planet. I'd love someone to show me a bettor who has hit over 56% in NFL long term with fully documented picks since it's as easy as chasing steam. This **** is borderline hilarious. 99.99% of people fail to make money in sports betting long term. I would lay big money every single person in this thread is a -EV bettor including myself.
 
GuptaKnows said:
LOL so you are telling you got banned from Pinnacle but some of the sharper bettors around have continuously been able to get down with them? If you aren't a line originator you aren't making money long term. I find it laughable people think beating these markets is this easy lol. These are some of the slimmest edge markets on the planet. I'd love someone to show me a bettor who has hit over 56% in NFL long term with fully documented picks since it's as easy as chasing steam. This **** is borderline hilarious. 99.99% of people fail to make money in sports betting long term. I would lay big money every single person in this thread is a -EV bettor including myself.
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You aren't making sense so let me clue you in:

"LOL so you are telling you got banned from Pinnacle but some of the sharper bettors around have continuously been able to get down with them?" - I got banned for chasing steam. The sharp bettors get down because they are the originators. And Pinnacle bans U.S. customers, which you clearly don't know, but there are ways to get an account if you know the right people.

"If you aren't a line originator you aren't making money long term." - Wrong, if you're chasing steam, you're getting down at the same price as the originator. There's a reason casinos will ban you for doing this.

"I find it laughable people think beating these markets is this easy lol." - Where did I ever say it was easy? It's extremely hard.

"I'd love someone to show me a bettor who has hit over 56% in NFL long term with fully documented picks since it's as easy as chasing steam." - If you can hit 54% laying -110 with a breakeven point of 52.38% you can retire with sufficient volume, which you won't find in the NFL, which is why NCAAB, NCAAF, and inefficient markets are better than the NFL. 53% is a world of difference. 56%? Billy Walters and a couple others might be the only ones to hit that percentage.

"I would lay big money every single person in this thread is a -EV bettor including myself." - Sorry you're a losing gambler. Step your game up, son. Not all of us are.
 
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