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Gamblers- Week 6

Poptimus said:
You aren't making sense so let me clue you in:

"LOL so you are telling you got banned from Pinnacle but some of the sharper bettors around have continuously been able to get down with them?" - I got banned for chasing steam. The sharp bettors get down because they are the originators. And Pinnacle bans U.S. customers, which you clearly don't know, but there are ways to get an account if you know the right people.

"If you aren't a line originator you aren't making money long term." - Wrong, if you're chasing steam, you're getting down at the same price as the originator. There's a reason casinos will ban you for doing this.

"I find it laughable people think beating these markets is this easy lol." - Where did I ever say it was easy? It's extremely hard.

"I'd love someone to show me a bettor who has hit over 56% in NFL long term with fully documented picks since it's as easy as chasing steam." - If you can hit 54% laying -110 with a breakeven point of 52.38% you can retire with sufficient volume, which you won't find in the NFL, which is why NCAAB, NCAAF, and inefficient markets are better than the NFL. 53% is a world of difference. 56%? Billy Walters and a couple others might be the only ones to hit that percentage.

"I would lay big money every single person in this thread is a -EV bettor including myself." - Sorry you're a losing gambler. Step your game up, son. Not all of us are.
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LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL I'm sure you are sharp and a long term winning gambler. You're another fraud tout among the other tens of thousands of losing bettors. Keep pumping your chest out about chasing steam though. Go ahead and post all your picks here against Pinnacle spread lines on the day of the game when higher limits are available. Lets see how sharp you are. We can keep a thread open just for you for years so we get can a larger sample size of your bets. I guarantee you can't even break even over 1000 picks against Pinnacle or Bookmaker spread lines the day of the game in NCAAF or NCAAB let alone NFL.
 
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GuptaKnows said:
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL I'm sure you are sharp and a long term winning gambler. You're another fraud tout among the other tens of thousands of losing bettors. Keep pumping your chest out about chasing steam though. Go ahead and post all your picks here against Pinnacle spread lines on the day of the game when higher limits are available. Lets see how sharp you are. We can keep a thread open just for you for years so we get can a larger sample size of your bets. I guarantee you can't even break even over 1000 picks against Pinnacle or Bookmaker spread lines the day of the game in NCAAF or NCAAB let alone NFL.
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You type like a scorned 16 year old girl. This is just a hobby for me. But I grind out a profit between bonus hustling and betting games over the long-term. I'll have losing weeks like everyone else, not sure where you think I said I don't lose. I'll oftentimes parlay a "safe" high ML trending up with a spread I liked due to a major move, buying 1.5 or 2 points to get the spread to where the originator took it before the move. Thus I'll get down at the same line as the originator, which you yourself stated was so important. Are you mad because I went 4-0 in the Gambling Week 5 thread (and I'm not even including the Miami game which I said you could bet with confidence once....wait for it... the line moved in our favor)? Where are your picks?
 
GuptaKnows said:
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL I'm sure you are sharp and a long term winning gambler. You're another fraud tout among the other tens of thousands of losing bettors. Keep pumping your chest out about chasing steam though. Go ahead and post all your picks here against Pinnacle spread lines on the day of the game when higher limits are available. Lets see how sharp you are. We can keep a thread open just for you for years so we get can a larger sample size of your bets. I guarantee you can't even break even over 1000 picks against Pinnacle or Bookmaker spread lines the day of the game in NCAAF or NCAAB let alone NFL.
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Why are you so f'ing hostile, bro?!? Poptimus never once came on here bragging about his gambling prowess. Rather, he's been a part of the gambling thread every week offering his thoughts on games infused with **** good knowledge he has been willing to share that clearly comes from a lot of experience; much more than many of the rest of us likely have. That's the purpose of this thread and he's been a great part of it and his insights are welcomed by all. He never a single time presented it in a condescending or superior way.

WTF is wrong with you that you have to come on here and act like a little b-tch and jump all over him? It's not a competition, bud.
 
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For_The_U said:
Why are you so f'ing hostile, bro?!? Poptimus never once came on here bragging about his gambling prowess. Rather, he's been a part of the gambling thread every week offering his thoughts on games infused with **** good knowledge he has been willing to share that clearly comes from a lot of experience; much more than many of the rest of us likely have. That's the purpose of this thread and he's been a great part of it and his insights are welcomed by all. He never a single time presented it in a condescending or superior way.

WTF is wrong with you that you have to come on here and act like a little b-tch and jump all over him? It's not a f'ing competition, bud.
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I admitted I was a -EV bettor like the rest of you in a post and this was his response: "Sorry you're a losing gambler. Step your game up, son. Not all of us are."

Where was I trying to compete? He's the one that insinuated he's a long term winning gambler with that statement, correct? if you are a winning bettor long term, you should be able to prove you can at least break even long term against Pinnacle and Bookmaker spread lines with decent limit sizes. "Step your game up, son" right?

I've never heard of someone who actually has an edge but treats it as a hobby. Kind of just like I've never met Santa Claus or the tooth fairy. Let me tell you some "**** good knowledge" as you say..the people who actually have edges in these markets are very good at math and work extremely ******* hard. But i'm going to stop derailing the thread so you and him can get back to murdering the books.
 
GuptaKnows said:
so you and him can get back to murdering the books.
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I never once said I murder anything. I've only gambled for a handful of years and I don't bet big money at all. I do it mostly for fun as I enjoy having action on games and talking about it with friends, and hope to make a few hundred bucks here and there while at it. It's this exact kind of attitude I was calling you out on; unquestionably, you were the one who turned the thread hostile.

All good. Let's move on.
 
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For_The_U said:
Ugh! I put mine in earlier in the week at LSU-2.5 as I really thought that line was going to go higher. ****.

I still think LSU rolls, regardless of line movements. Line movements, while telling, obviously cannot predict the outcome of a football game. And ultimately, I think Florida sucks donkey balls.
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I did the same and I'm kicking myself for it. Put money down yesterday and most of the teams I took lines have moved by a point or two.
 
15-9 ATS - YTD

Here's who I'm looking at this week:

OU -7
Syracuse -3.5
Navy -3
Toledo -20.5
UK +5.5
Mississippi St. +4
Washington St. -17
Fresno -11.5


I like the Canes to cover, but who cares about betting outcomes just stomp the Noles. I also like LSU to win against UF, but line movement has me staying away. Will place a tiny parlay on Tulsa/Troy just for fun tonight with no expectations that this is a good bet.
 
@GuptaKnows

I'm not here for petty B.S. and I trust neither are you. How to grind out a profit? How about bet both sides? Read this that I posted in the Week 1 gambling thread. I'm curious what you think:

Poptimus said:
3x rollover is great for a 100% bonus. So now let me clue you in on something that will blow your mind: the Bonus Game.

You invest, say, $1,000 at Bookmaker and decline any bonus they may offer so you have the freedom to withdraw when you want. You invest $1,000 at SBG and have $2,000 in your account with the 100% bonus. Here's where it gets ingenious: you bet both sides of the same game on the ML, trying to win the game at Bookmaker, and lose at SBG. You bet the amount you expect to win on the favorite as your risk on the underdog.

e.g. New England Patriots are -500 against the New York Jets at +400. So you bet, say, $100 on the Patriots to win $20 profit. You bet $20 on the Jets even though you expect them to lose. This way you protect yourself in case of an upset. But the goal is to win, win, win at Bookmaker and lose, lose, lose at SBG. Do that enough and you've moved your SBG account from $2k to zero. But you've transferred that $2k (or thereabouts because there will be upsets and even though you're betting both sides, there is vig) over to Bookmaker. You now have $3k in your Bookmaker account, can withdraw it right away because there was zero rollover, and you made a cool $1k.
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I used to throw heavy money on Boise State 1Q under Peterson. He had an insane hit rate.

Alabama 1H lines might be a good value.
 
Poptimus said:
@GuptaKnows

I'm not here for petty B.S. and I trust neither are you. How to grind out a profit? How about bet both sides? Read this that I posted in the Week 1 gambling thread. I'm curious what you think:
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Very interesting strategy @Poptimus. Would definitely take a lot of work and attention to detail to get the most out of it, like all gambling strategy. If a player is disciplined and focused on profit seems like a good scheme. Somewhat limited upside to bonus amounts. Have you used this method before?
 
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For_The_U said:
Like the idea of riding Bama in the 1H. They roll people early and then usually call off the dogs a bit. Thats a massive 1H line, but probably a solid bet.
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I cashed on ULL against Bama last week, but man it is really weird to ride for that backdoor cover, especially with Bama up 50 at half. It's like Bizarro Football.
 
CAT5Coming said:
Very interesting strategy @Poptimus. Would definitely take a lot of work and attention to detail to get the most out of it, like all gambling strategy. If a player is disciplined and focused on profit seems like a good scheme. Somewhat limited upside to bonus amounts. Have you used this method before?
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Yeah, I've done it and still do it when the bonus is attractive enough. It's far from foolproof, I'm glad you recognize that. You lose a few big ML's and then you're losing quite a bit of juice to make that up. You still need to know how to pick winners. New England ML tonight is a solid choice as of now.

What you should understand is that these crappy casinos offering huge bonuses to lure in players couldn't care less if you're playing the bonus game. Why? Because you're trying to lose with them. You're using their "free" 100% bonus (usually capped at $1k) to win real money elsewhere. Even if they know what you're up to - and trust me, they'll know, because what type of guy bets huge dogs on the ML every time - they simply don't care.
 
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CAT5Coming said:
I cashed on ULL against Bama last week, but man it is really weird to ride for that backdoor cover, especially with Bama up 50 at half. It's like Bizarro Football.
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I won $25 on ULL. I couldn’t help but to bet something on that massive spread. I don’t remember where I saw the stat but Bama was a better play in the road verse at home there for a few years. First half may be the way to go with them this year.
 
On a side note: looking at about 2000 games over the course of 10 years, 14 pt fav win about 85% of the time. Just trying to make myself feel good before that 3:30 game this Sat.
 
Texas +7.5

Trust the trends. Rivalry game. Herman will cover.

Ehlinger does suck though so don't go too crazy.
 
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