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Gamblers- Week 6

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Poptimus said:
Yeah, best to wait. I bet by confirmation, not anticipation. Have your own opinion on games and see if the market agrees and it starts moving your way. If so, lock and load. If not, I pass. Right now you've got sharps setting up a lot of games by betting the "wrong" side intentionally. They know the sheep follow and move that line a little further. And then they'll hammer the "true" side closer to game time at the better price.

I think our game is going to see resistance at -13 and support at -11. It won't move outside that range, FSU +13 would get hammered, as would Miami -11.
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Interesting to see stock market lingo used in gambling- resistance, support, range, confirmation. I always consider the market to be the biggest casino in world, cheating and house edge included.
 
Gatorhater said:
Interesting to see stock market lingo used in gambling- resistance, support, range, confirmation. I always consider the market to be the biggest casino in world, cheating and house edge included.
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The same principles of technical analysis apply to both. These pointspreads are dynamic and trade like stocks. I didn’t believe it until I started charting games and watching the screen, just like if I was watching the 1 and 5 minute candlestick charts with Level II for stocks. Day trading is better, of course, because each bet isn’t all or nothing if you’re using stop limit orders and, unlike sports gambling, the bid/ask spread is invaluable info that tells you where it’s likely moving and we don’t have that with sports.
 
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Poptimus said:
The same principles of technical analysis apply to both. These pointspreads are dynamic and trade like stocks. I didn’t believe it until I started charting games and watching the screen, just like if I was watching the 1 and 5 minute candlestick charts with Level II for stocks. Day trading is better, of course, because each bet isn’t all or nothing if you’re using stop limit orders and, unlike sports gambling, the bid/ask spread is invaluable info that tells you where it’s likely moving and we don’t have that with sports.
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I’m not a technical trader but do refer to its charts for some confirmation. Using it for sports gambling is fascinating. With the recent court ruling, the data pool, access to it and liquidity level will increase and make it even more so. All we need is a gambling Fed to prop up the market and protect the rich gamblers and we will have a second Wall Street. Good luck.
 
Poptimus said:
I was in awe. Going into Mile High and winning on MNF is something serious, especially down 10 in the 4th.
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No doubt. He made one gritty phenomenal play after another. How many times did he elude pressure, roll away with what seemed like nothing going and then fire a deadly accurate laser downfield for a big gain? Kid has ice in his veins.
 
Captain Uberpants said:
Seemed to be an up and down week for most. It’s a new week so let’s get to it. Some early lines to discuss and keep an eye on.


Miami (-12.5) vs FSU. This one will be hotly debated. I’m not touching this with my money. If it goes near 10 I will. If it rises over 14, I would take FSU. We absolutely should blow them out but these games are historically close.

Tulsa (+17) @ Houston. No D still the D coordinator? I expect Tulsa to keep it within 2 scores even if it means a garbage TD to do so.

GT (-3.5) @ Louisville. Short week hurts Louisville after blowing the FSU game. Some horrible coaching was displayed coming from Whoville. I would buy the .5 point but I expect GT to win here.

USF (-14) @ Umass. No head coach for umass who gets blown out when they lose. This a potential high $ for me.

LSU (-3.5) @ UF. This seems a little low to me but I don’t think UF scores all that much against LSU.

VT (+5) vs ND. Blacksburg, night game. ND may win but I think it’ll be a 28-24 type game.

Bama (-33.5) @ Arkansas. I say this every week that high spreads scare me but Arkansas is BAD and this Bama team is unstoppable. Bama should have this covered at half.

Texas A&M (-6) vs Kentucky. Kentucky will lay an egg at some point. I think it’s this week.

Oklahoma (-7.5) vs Texas. Buy the .5 point. Oklahoma will win by 7+.
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*************************************************

We will cover this. 36-17 FINAL.

LOU will win this game.

ALA is due for a scare, and this is the week. Even if they win, -33.5 is too much wood.
 
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memphisbred said:
I would stay away from GT, they find ways to let u down from a betting perspective lol. USF game was the last straw for me.
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GT cost me that game also. Besides the two kickoff returns, they really blew the cash when they fumbled in the red zone with a chance to put the game away
 
plantcity3 said:
GT cost me that game also. Besides the two kickoff returns, they really blew the cash when they fumbled in the red zone with a chance to put the game away
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The two kickoff returns (in one quarter for christ sake!) were the only reason that didn't hit. Most teams who don't face it every year struggle mightily with defending the triple option. Having said that, this is not a very good GT team even on their standards.
 
Captain Uberpants said:
Seemed to be an up and down week for most. It’s a new week so let’s get to it. Some early lines to discuss and keep an eye on.


Miami (-12.5) vs FSU. This one will be hotly debated. I’m not touching this with my money. If it goes near 10 I will. If it rises over 14, I would take FSU. We absolutely should blow them out but these games are historically close.

Tulsa (+17) @ Houston. No D still the D coordinator? I expect Tulsa to keep it within 2 scores even if it means a garbage TD to do so.

GT (-3.5) @ Louisville. Short week hurts Louisville after blowing the FSU game. Some horrible coaching was displayed coming from Whoville. I would buy the .5 point but I expect GT to win here.

USF (-14) @ Umass. No head coach for umass who gets blown out when they lose. This a potential high $ for me.

LSU (-3.5) @ UF. This seems a little low to me but I don’t think UF scores all that much against LSU.

VT (+5) vs ND. Blacksburg, night game. ND may win but I think it’ll be a 28-24 type game.

Bama (-33.5) @ Arkansas. I say this every week that high spreads scare me but Arkansas is BAD and this Bama team is unstoppable. Bama should have this covered at half.

Texas A&M (-6) vs Kentucky. Kentucky will lay an egg at some point. I think it’s this week.

Oklahoma (-7.5) vs Texas. Buy the .5 point. Oklahoma will win by 7+.
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Take The Canes (I believe Kosi is the difference, we finally have the potential of legit great QB with him), Tulsa, GT, USF, LSU, ND, Bama, Kentucky and Texas (think thats a FG game). I'm very tempted to actually pick the gayturds but I think leu gets a late TD and toys to rack up as many wins prior to the gauntlet of their schedule.
 
plantcity3 said:
GT cost me that game also. Besides the two kickoff returns, they really blew the cash when they fumbled in the red zone with a chance to put the game away
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Once they fumbled in the red zone, I knew at that point. Everytime I put something on GT they F the money up. Normally in similar fashion to the USF game. Like I told myself the last time never bet with Tech then I pulled the trigger on that game lol.
 
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LSU just dropped to -2 1/2. I mean this has to be a victory for them right?!?!?
Also Texas and Oklahoma is off the board. Is there a major injury/suspension that Vegas knows about for that game?
 
BeastMode said:
LSU just dropped to -2 1/2. I mean this has to be a victory for them right?!?!?
Also Texas and Oklahoma is off the board. Is there a major injury/suspension that Vegas knows about for that game?
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Dude, I predict LSU is going to crush UF.
 
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BeastMode said:
LSU just dropped to -2 1/2. I mean this has to be a victory for them right?!?!?
Also Texas and Oklahoma is off the board. Is there a major injury/suspension that Vegas knows about for that game?
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My book still has it up. OU-8
 
BeastMode said:
LSU just dropped to -2 1/2. I mean this has to be a victory for them right?!?!?
Also Texas and Oklahoma is off the board. Is there a major injury/suspension that Vegas knows about for that game?
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Oklahoma rose to -8 so that teaser I was thinking of including Texas in is a hard pass for me as of now.

Re: UF/LSU, respect the line movement. It's still very early, we'll know where this line should settle late Friday or Saturday morning, but to move off the 3 takes a lot of money and this has dropped from -3.5 to -2.5. I know, I know...LSU smacked us around and we're light years ahead of UF. But I respect the guys in Vegas way more than my own opinion so I'm not touching this game so long as it stays -2.5. If it climbs back to -3 late in the week I'd consider it.

Linesmakers have pretty much faded LSU each week since they crushed us. Yeah, they're winning and covering, but this trend is continuing this week.

Miami is now -13 up from -12.5 yesteray, but there are a couple signs this will reverse. Juice at Pinnacle has dropped from -112 to -106 and the price on the ML has linearly dropped from -503 on Miami to now -445. I fully expect the pointspread to drop a point or so in FSU's favor so if anyone wants to bet the Canes, I advise you wait.
 
Poptimus said:
Oklahoma rose to -8 so that teaser I was thinking of including Texas in is a hard pass for me as of now.

Re: UF/LSU, respect the line movement. It's still very early, we'll know where this line should settle late Friday or Saturday morning, but to move off the 3 takes a lot of money and this has dropped from -3.5 to -2.5. I know, I know...LSU smacked us around and we're light years ahead of UF. But I respect the guys in Vegas way more than my own opinion so I'm not touching this game so long as it stays -2.5. If it climbs back to -3 late in the week I'd consider it.

Linesmakers have pretty much faded LSU each week since they crushed us. Yeah, they're winning and covering, but this trend is continuing this week.

Miami is now -13 up from -12.5 yesteray, but there are a couple signs this will reverse. Juice at Pinnacle has dropped from -112 to -106 and the price on the ML has linearly dropped from -503 on Miami to now -445. I fully expect the pointspread to drop a point or so in FSU's favor so if anyone wants to bet the Canes, I advise you wait.
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Florida teaser may be worth a look to get them +more than a TD at home.
 
What has A&M done to deserve to be favored by 6 over KY? I’d take the points and ML all day, KY has made me some money this year, will keep riding them.
 
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