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Gamblers- Week 6

Captain Uberpants

Captain Uberpants

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Seemed to be an up and down week for most. It’s a new week so let’s get to it. Some early lines to discuss and keep an eye on.


Miami (-12.5) vs FSU. This one will be hotly debated. I’m not touching this with my money. If it goes near 10 I will. If it rises over 14, I would take FSU. We absolutely should blow them out but these games are historically close.

Tulsa (+17) @ Houston. No D still the D coordinator? I expect Tulsa to keep it within 2 scores even if it means a garbage TD to do so.

GT (-3.5) @ Louisville. Short week hurts Louisville after blowing the FSU game. Some horrible coaching was displayed coming from Whoville. I would buy the .5 point but I expect GT to win here.

USF (-14) @ Umass. No head coach for umass who gets blown out when they lose. This a potential high $ for me.

LSU (-3.5) @ UF. This seems a little low to me but I don’t think UF scores all that much against LSU.

VT (+5) vs ND. Blacksburg, night game. ND may win but I think it’ll be a 28-24 type game.

Bama (-33.5) @ Arkansas. I say this every week that high spreads scare me but Arkansas is BAD and this Bama team is unstoppable. Bama should have this covered at half.

Texas A&M (-6) vs Kentucky. Kentucky will lay an egg at some point. I think it’s this week.

Oklahoma (-7.5) vs Texas. Buy the .5 point. Oklahoma will win by 7+.
 
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I'm right there with you re Miami. if it goes under 10 I'll jump on it, but it won't. If it got to 14+ I agree the smart money would be on the Noles, but I could never bring myself to place that bet. I expect FSU to play their best game of the season against us, just like they did last year. I'm staying away from this one.

LOVE UCF-14 vs Umass! I'll be heavy on that after watching their performance vs pitt Saturday.

I like GT and LSU as well. I think LSU pummels the Gators.

That VT bet scares me. The only reason it is under a TD+ is because it's at The Burg. There's just no way to know which Hokie team will show up.

I haven't rode The Bama Cover Train all year (it missed this week, right?), but I think I will vs Ark.

Though I haven't put anything in yet, others I have my eye on are...

Colorado-2.5 at home vs ASU. Colorado is playing great football right now.

NW/Under teaser (or NW teased to 17.5 with another game). Sparty can't seem to cover against anyone right now.

Auburn-3 vs Miss St. Miss St sucks, I don't GAF what all the SEC-blowhards think. Quintessential example of a team that gets a ton of hype and boost by all the SEC homers and excuses every one of their loses as a "good loss" and then makes it seem any team that beats MSU is a "good win". No, it's not, MSU is garbage.

Ole Miss -22 vs UL Monroe. Ole Miss can put up points in droves vs a bad defense, and they are going to be home and ****ed off.

I'm going to throw in a long-shot parlay right now on a few of those above, but going to wait til later in the week to start putting the real action in.
 
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For_The_U said:
I'm right there with you re Miami. if it goes under 10 I'll jump on it, but it won't. If it got to 14+ I agree the smart money would be on the Noles, but I could never bring myself to place that bet. I expect FSU to play their best game of the season against us, just like they did last year. I'm staying away from this one.

LOVE UCF-14 vs Umass! I'll be heavy on that after watching their performance vs pitt Saturday.

I like GT and LSU as well. I think LSU pummels the Gators.

That VT bet scares me. The only reason it is under a TD+ is because it's at The Burg. There's just no way to know which Hokie team will show up.

I haven't rode The Bama Cover Train all year (it missed this week, right?), but I think I will vs Ark.

Though I haven't put anything in yet, others I have my eye on are...

Colorado-2.5 at home vs ASU. Colorado is playing great football right now.

NW/Under teaser (or NW teased to 17.5 with another game). Sparty can't seem to cover against anyone right now.

Auburn-3 vs Miss St. Miss St sucks, I don't GAF what all the SEC-blowhards think. Quintessential example of a team that gets a ton of hype and boost by all the SEC homers and excuses every one of their loses as a "good loss" and then makes it seem any team that beats MSU is a "good win". No, it's not, MSU is garbage.

Ole Miss -22 vs UL Monroe. Ole Miss can put up points in droves vs a bad offense, and they are going to be home and ****ed off.

I'm going to throw in a long-shot parlay right now on a few of those above, but going to wait til later in the week to start putting the real action in.
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I wouldn’t actually place the bet on the Noles, I’d become violently sick if I did.

Bama did not cover last week but against ULL I didn’t expect them to keep pushing after the first quarter. I think Tua only threw like 8 passes or something like that.

Good call on Aub/MSU. MSU is a joke.
 
Auburn -3 @ Miss St. I like that one.

LSU -3 (taking .5) @ UF. Yeah, give me that.

Won't touch the Canes line but I know once I'm 4 modelos deep at W22 on Saturday, I'll lay down some quiche. I think we should cover that.
 
Kendall Boy Cane said:
Won't touch the Canes line but I know once I'm 4 modelos deep at W22 on Saturday, I'll lay down some quiche.
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LOL!!

BTW, I misread your post above, Capt. I thought you said UCF vs Umass not USF. I would have pounded UCF at -14, but they are playing SMU and it's -24.5. I won't touch that. I'm not sold on USF either, though I could definitely see that covering.
 
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Put my parlay in...

GT-3, LSU-3, Bama-34, Auburn-3, Ole Miss-21. $50 pays $934.

I'm going to put in bets on Auburn and LSU both -3 right now before those lines move (which i think they will).
 
Captain Uberpants said:
LSU just went to 2.5 in my site lol yeah I’ll grab that now
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Mine is still -3. Hmm. it's at -105 though so I think it will fall to 2.5 here shortly. I'll get mine in as soon as it does. Though, to be honest, I like them plenty at -3 as well. They will roll the Gators, even in the swamp.
 
Leave the Canes line alone.... just know love is blind sometimes ...

Early Likes

USF -14 (Lock)
Indiana +27 (Always gives OSU fits)
Bama -35 (Arky is one of the worst power 5 teams)
Vandy +27 ( Too many points against Vandy Defense)

JC
 
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I would stay away from GT, they find ways to let u down from a betting perspective lol. USF game was the last straw for me.
 
Take Arkansas,Texas,nd and Louisville and troy .Houston reason for Texas ou defense not so good.bama is hot but they've got to cool down sometime.troy has 12 of they're last 13 games have covered the spread.don't think Tulsa will blowout houston
 
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BeastMode said:
That LSU line looks fishy. My eyes tell me they cover that with ease. Who has Florida actually beat this year? Tennessee is trash and Miss St is overrated.
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The only good team they played was Kentucky who is overrated themselves. I can’t see UF doing anything on offense against LSU.
 
I haven't pulled the trigger just yet, but a teaser on Texas +14 and Old Dominion +21.5 is something I've got my eye on.
 
I burned myself putting in early bets last week with grabbing Duke on instinct before really looking into the game. I’m going to wait till closer to game times. I know that I risk not getting the best line, but I want to weigh all my options. Also got burned taking Oak -3 and the line moved to -2 1/2 and I got the sorry *** push in that one.
 
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BeastMode said:
I burned myself putting in early bets last week with grabbing Duke on instinct before really looking into the game. I’m going to wait till closer to game times. I know that I risk not getting the best line, but I want to weigh all my options. Also got burned taking Oak -3 and the line moved to -2 1/2 and I got the sorry *** push in that one.
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Yeah, best to wait. I bet by confirmation, not anticipation. Have your own opinion on games and see if the market agrees and it starts moving your way. If so, lock and load. If not, I pass. Right now you've got sharps setting up a lot of games by betting the "wrong" side intentionally. They know the sheep follow and move that line a little further. And then they'll hammer the "true" side closer to game time at the better price.

I think our game is going to see resistance at -13 and support at -11. It won't move outside that range, FSU +13 would get hammered, as would Miami -11.
 
Pretty much agree with ya'll. LSU -2.5, AUB -3 , OU -7.5. I like ND -5 their rollin & CUSE -5 against Pitt. Gimme ECU +11.5 vs Temple , Mizzou +2 vs SC , KSU +5 vs Baykor , Kentucky +6 vs Texas A&M on teasers
 
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