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Estimated Miami's 2019 Class Ranking Including Transfers

brcane1

brcane1

Sophomore
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Nov 5, 2011
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In an effort to properly discuss the incoming talent level, I wanted to estimate what our class rank would be with the transfers following the publication of 247 composite scores for them. There was an article posted recently that did this analysis, but their math was bad (and they should feel bad).

The team score figure includes some aspects that scale based on various factors when you add recruits. It does this to better account for class size and depth, but importantly does it with an algorithm thats not publicly available. To estimate this best, we'll use their "class calculator" by plugging in replacements with comparable scores to see how the 247 math would scale the talent.

After the addition of JHH, our starting score is 209 with no transfers, good for 33rd nationally. I'll substitute our current transfer haul as follows.

QB Tathan Martell (.92) -> Taisun Phommachanh (.9156)
RB Asa Martin (.90) -> Cameron Davis (.9016)
WR KJ Osborn (.91) -> Drake London (.9087)
OT Tommy Kennedy (.86) -> Taylor Miterko (.8601)
DT Chigozie Nnoruka (NR) -> Beaux Tagaloa (.7998)
S Bubba Bolden (.95) -> Tyler Owens (.9513)

That brings the class score up to 240.2 good for 22nd Nationally, with 5 initial counters left to fill. Let’s forecast what it could look like in a week. I’m going to go with us having a good showing this week with those 5 spots as follows:

DE Trevon Hill (.89) -> Trace Ford (.8897)
OLB Jaelan Phillips (.96) -> Tyron Hopper (.9595)
OT Darius Washington (.8810)
DE Kris Bogle (.9677)
CB Christian Williams (.9328)

This is likely blindly optimistic on the last five, but #TNM has me drinking that kool aid. That takes us to a score of 263.87, good for one spot ahead of Florida at 11th. If we remove Bogle and Williams, we’re still at 251.97, one spot ahead of Florida State at 16th.

Edit: By popular demand, here is Jeff Thomas (.9807) -> Frank Ladson (.98) brings us to 271.92, good for 10th just behind Clemson. Fun fact, 247 Sports still has Jeff Thomas as a Sophomore playing for Illinois.
 
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Yeah I have no idea where people got that we would have #3 class behind Bama and UGA. That never made any sense at all
 
Nice work, OP. Thanks for figuring out the real ranking of this class. The recruiting sites are never going to fully follow suit as they're all too vested in the status quo.
 
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I like this class better than any class in a long time. Looks like we have some quality linemen it's about time. I'm big on linemen, the best teams have great ones. That has been lacking for years, IMO. Depending on who can play next year, this will be a better team than last years on paper too. I would say these coaches have done a great job with only a month in. The portal has made a huge difference for our team. We only have one player that will be real hard to replace, Willis. Next year our class will be even better.
 
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brcane1 said:
In an effort to properly discuss the incoming talent level, I wanted to estimate what our class rank would be with the transfers following the publication of 247 composite scores for them. There was an article posted recently that did this analysis, but their math was bad (and they should feel bad).

The team score figure includes some aspects that scale based on various factors when you add recruits. It does this to better account for class size and depth, but importantly does it with an algorithm thats not publicly available. To estimate this best, we'll use their "class calculator" by plugging in replacements with comparable scores to see how the 247 math would scale the talent.

After the addition of JHH, our starting score is 209 with no transfers, good for 33rd nationally. I'll substitute our current transfer haul as follows.

QB Tathan Martell (.92) -> Taisun Phommachanh (.9156)
RB Asa Martin (.90) -> Cameron Davis (.9016)
WR KJ Osborn (.91) -> Drake London (.9087)
OT Tommy Kennedy (.86) -> Taylor Miterko (.8601)
DT Chigozie Nnoruka (NR) -> Beaux Tagaloa (.7998)
S Bubba Bolden (.95) -> Tyler Owens (.9513)

That brings the class score up to 240.2 good for 22nd Nationally, with 5 initial counters left to fill. Let’s forecast what it could look like in a week. I’m going to go with us having a good showing this week with those 5 spots as follows:

DE Trevon Hill (.89) -> Trace Ford (.8897)
OLB Jaelan Phillips (.96) -> Tyron Hopper (.9595)
OT Darius Washington (.8810)
DE Kris Bogle (.9677)
CB Christian Williams (.9328)

This is likely blindly optimistic on the last five, but #TNM has me drinking that kool aid. That takes us to a score of 263.87, good for one spot ahead of Florida at 11th. If we remove Bogle and Williams, we’re still at 251.97, one spot ahead of Florida State at 16th.
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Hope you are 100% correct! Manny please knock it out of the park! Your energy has most of us very excited about the future.
 
YUMU said:
Our recruiting intangibles. These cats below were "HUGE" recruiting get by TNM and will make a "HUGE" difference in 2019 and forward

#1 Dan Enos
#2 Butch Berry
#3 David Feeley
#4 Jeff Thomas
Click to expand...
I would put Manny at or very near the top of this list! Remember that he was Temple bound.
 
good post.

you can see the difference going by blue chip ratio too.

right now we have 6 four stars and 10 three stars in the 2019 class per 247 composite.

martell, bolden, osborne and martin are 4 stars in 247's transfer rankings. kennedy is a 3 star and nnoruka is not rated. that puts us at 10 four stars and 12 three stars.

phillips or hill gets us to 11 four stars, both get us to 12. obviously bogle, williams etc could bump that number up, with washington and emerson being the 3 stars left on the board.

we most likely finish somewhere at a 50/50 blue chip ratio this year between recruits and transfers, which is the minimum baseline for something near elite level recruiting.

let's say it's 13 four stars (phillips and bogle/hill), and 12 three stars. last year we had a blue chip ratio of 15/8. our two year haul would be 28/20, or roughly 60%. over a time span of 4 years, that would put us on par with teams like clemson, LSU, michigan, auburn https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/8/22/17606048/blue-chip-ratio-2018
 
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YUMU said:
Our recruiting intangibles. These cats below were "HUGE" recruiting get by TNM and will make a "HUGE" difference in 2019 and forward

#1 Dan Enos
#2 Butch Berry
#3 David Feeley
#4 Jeff Thomas
Click to expand...

Can you guys knock off the tnm crap. Sounds like a gum disease or something. We are The U and that one of the best known brands in the world. You’ll like McDonals starting to call itself The New Burger.
 
brcane1 said:
In an effort to properly discuss the incoming talent level, I wanted to estimate what our class rank would be with the transfers following the publication of 247 composite scores for them. There was an article posted recently that did this analysis, but their math was bad (and they should feel bad).

The team score figure includes some aspects that scale based on various factors when you add recruits. It does this to better account for class size and depth, but importantly does it with an algorithm thats not publicly available. To estimate this best, we'll use their "class calculator" by plugging in replacements with comparable scores to see how the 247 math would scale the talent.

After the addition of JHH, our starting score is 209 with no transfers, good for 33rd nationally. I'll substitute our current transfer haul as follows.

QB Tathan Martell (.92) -> Taisun Phommachanh (.9156)
RB Asa Martin (.90) -> Cameron Davis (.9016)
WR KJ Osborn (.91) -> Drake London (.9087)
OT Tommy Kennedy (.86) -> Taylor Miterko (.8601)
DT Chigozie Nnoruka (NR) -> Beaux Tagaloa (.7998)
S Bubba Bolden (.95) -> Tyler Owens (.9513)

That brings the class score up to 240.2 good for 22nd Nationally, with 5 initial counters left to fill. Let’s forecast what it could look like in a week. I’m going to go with us having a good showing this week with those 5 spots as follows:

DE Trevon Hill (.89) -> Trace Ford (.8897)
OLB Jaelan Phillips (.96) -> Tyron Hopper (.9595)
OT Darius Washington (.8810)
DE Kris Bogle (.9677)
CB Christian Williams (.9328)

This is likely blindly optimistic on the last five, but #TNM has me drinking that kool aid. That takes us to a score of 263.87, good for one spot ahead of Florida at 11th. If we remove Bogle and Williams, we’re still at 251.97, one spot ahead of Florida State at 16th.
Click to expand...

Add Jeff Thomas
 
Gatorhater said:
Can you guys knock off the tnm crap. Sounds like a gum disease or something. We are The U and that one of the best known brands in the world. You’ll like McDonals starting to call itself The New Burger.
Click to expand...

We always the U.. from the recruiting standpoint it was killed by the Shanon, Golden, Richt .. last 15 seasons, the results itself ..etc....... TNM will bring the U back we all want it to b
 
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brcane1 said:
In an effort to properly discuss the incoming talent level, I wanted to estimate what our class rank would be with the transfers following the publication of 247 composite scores for them. There was an article posted recently that did this analysis, but their math was bad (and they should feel bad).

The team score figure includes some aspects that scale based on various factors when you add recruits. It does this to better account for class size and depth, but importantly does it with an algorithm thats not publicly available. To estimate this best, we'll use their "class calculator" by plugging in replacements with comparable scores to see how the 247 math would scale the talent.

After the addition of JHH, our starting score is 209 with no transfers, good for 33rd nationally. I'll substitute our current transfer haul as follows.

QB Tathan Martell (.92) -> Taisun Phommachanh (.9156)
RB Asa Martin (.90) -> Cameron Davis (.9016)
WR KJ Osborn (.91) -> Drake London (.9087)
OT Tommy Kennedy (.86) -> Taylor Miterko (.8601)
DT Chigozie Nnoruka (NR) -> Beaux Tagaloa (.7998)
S Bubba Bolden (.95) -> Tyler Owens (.9513)

That brings the class score up to 240.2 good for 22nd Nationally, with 5 initial counters left to fill. Let’s forecast what it could look like in a week. I’m going to go with us having a good showing this week with those 5 spots as follows:

DE Trevon Hill (.89) -> Trace Ford (.8897)
OLB Jaelan Phillips (.96) -> Tyron Hopper (.9595)
OT Darius Washington (.8810)
DE Kris Bogle (.9677)
CB Christian Williams (.9328)

This is likely blindly optimistic on the last five, but #TNM has me drinking that kool aid. That takes us to a score of 263.87, good for one spot ahead of Florida at 11th. If we remove Bogle and Williams, we’re still at 251.97, one spot ahead of Florida State at 16th.
Click to expand...
awesome work OP!!

the 3rd rank class studf was because of CanesWarning they added the transfers with their old high school scores and according to OP some bad math. We would be top 25 then with what we have added and if we land some more studs/ transfers we land from 11-17? not bad considering the circumstances. This class then becomes a solid class and not a lost cause , building on Storm 18 and catapulting us to cat20
 
mirvin88 said:
Add Jeff Thomas
Click to expand...
I'm on board with this.
JT4 had a .9807 so replace him with our friend Frank Ladson @ .9800 and do the fuzzy math that 247 uses... :6fps6:

For no other reason than to get us going some more! Keep the Flagler Southern Railroad rolling South to CG!
 
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