Early Line: UNC vs Canes

[WanderFranco]

I agree miami favored is ridiculous. The public probably agrees too which is why the line will drop as too much money starts coming in on UNC. The line drops to entice some money on the Miami side to balance it out so the house can make their money on the juice

If the line was so ridiculous, the dudes who do this for a living with five- and six-figure bets would have crushed the line already. But they haven't.

The reality is that Miami fans are looking at the line with emotion. But the power rankings don't use emotion. The power rankings have Miami a point or two better than UNC on a neutral field. So -4 makes sense. A line of -4 is going to get roughly equal money.

To show how unpredictable college football is, consider Missouri. Those guys lost to Kansas State by four touchdowns. They were playing a team that had allowed one touchdown all year. If the line had come out at Georgia -5, the whole betting universe would have sold all of their possessions to bet on Georgia. And they would have lost.

So relying on the MTSU game as the measuring stick is pretty unwise.

 

[JgDaCane]

Opened Miami -5, O/U 63.5 at Circa. Seen Miami -4 other places. Miami -3.5 is the lowest I’ve seen at open.

Books are begging people to bet UNC. Screams trap line. But I’ve seen a bunch of lines over the past 4-5 years involving Miami, that scream trap and end up backfiring. Can’t wait to see the movement this week.

Agree agree agree. The movement is gonna tell us everything.

 

[LatinCane]

Line is now 5.

 

[305407cane]

Man it’s just crazy considering mtsu was bombing us like crazy. Now bring in unc with P5 athletes and a better quarterback, better running backs and better receivers. Including Josh downs who may be a first round pick.

Now if you want to say our team will be fired up? Sure I’ll accept that. But enough to overcome significant matchup disadvantaged at covering receivers, backs and tight ends? Nope. And our bad tackling.

Not to mention our injuries to arroyo, Stevenson, parrish, knighton, Chaney, citizen, X and George? Man I just don’t see what Vegas is seeing.

Also I’m expecting a half full stadium at best

 

[BeastMode]

Miami wins 34-28. UNC can't stop the run. You can't score 7 TDs if you never have the ball. This isn't a game where an above average running game and mediocre pass game will automatically equal a lost. Our sole offensive strength plays very well into UNC's weakness. If Gattis goes uptempo this game I'll officially be on the Fire Gattis train (if we score under 50 at least)

We don’t even have RB to run the ball with. All are injured besides Franklin and the UAB kid/walk-ons

 

[BeastMode]

Man it’s just crazy considering mtsu was bombing us like crazy. Now bring in unc with P5 athletes and a better quarterback, better running backs and better receivers. Including Josh downs who may be a first round pick.

Now if you want to say our team will be fired up? Sure I’ll accept that. But enough to overcome significant matchup disadvantaged at covering receivers, backs and tight ends? Nope. And our bad tackling.

Not to mention our injuries to arroyo, Stevenson, parrish, knighton, Chaney, citizen, X and George? Man I just don’t see what Vegas is seeing.

Also I’m expecting a half full stadium at best

I plan on moving down into Great seats once the blowout starts

 

[NJshoreCane]

I expected responses like this.

Let's do the quick game set up:
UNC coming off their best game of the year.
Canes coming off their worst game of the year.
UNC scores a ton.
Miami doesn't score.

I am not betting on my Canes, but...
This is exactly the type of game my Uncle Rocco would tell me to stay away from because it's too easy.
I'm curious to see where the line goes later in the week.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

If the line was so ridiculous, the dudes who do this for a living with five- and six-figure bets would have crushed the line already. But they haven't.

The reality is that Miami fans are looking at the line with emotion. But the power rankings don't use emotion. The power rankings have Miami a point or two better than UNC on a neutral field. So -4 makes sense. A line of -4 is going to get roughly equal money.

To show how unpredictable college football is, consider Missouri. Those guys lost to Kansas State by four touchdowns. They were playing a team that had allowed one touchdown all year. If the line had come out at Georgia -5, the whole betting universe would have sold all of their possessions to bet on Georgia. And they would have lost.

So relying on the MTSU game as the measuring stick is pretty unwise.

Insane to me that everyone here is (presumably?) adults and people don't understand even a smidgen of this.

If UNC is such a lock, then I would expect everyone on this board to get rich betting it. And also, I expect several sportsbooks to take a bath on Saturday due to the bloodshed from their losses on this game. Right?

 

[The U is back to work]

Line is now 5.

This makes absolutely zero sense to me.

Their offense has put up major points and ours hasn’t.

Their defense may suck but our offense potentially is worse.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

This makes absolutely zero sense to me.

Their offense has put up major points and ours hasn’t.

Their defense may suck but our offense potentially is worse.

Our defense had 1 bad game, where the entire team was terrible. UNC gave up 650 yards to App State and 576 to Notre Dame. They did play better last week, only giving up 10 points and 273 yards to VT, but VT genuinely has one of the worst 5 offenses in the country.

 

[NC_Canes_11]

Agree agree agree. The movement is gonna tell us everything.

Unless people are waiting to hear who’s starting at QB or if Parrish will be available, today and tomorrow tell us everything we need to know. Sunday afternoon limits are gone.

If you’ve already bet Carolina post your tickets. You’re more of a man than I am. I’m running for the hills on this one.

 

[MiamisMoperiestMopes]

-4/-110 on DK but first I’ve seen ML move +160 UNC from +165

 

[TouchMoney26]

simple fix - tae james and kam need to all play
LT - needs to play the most snaps on the d line period. First time in a long time a 5 star is playing like one on limited snaps, i know . its mind blowing that hes not in on more snaps.

TVD - has no passion, body language is horrible, but Mario thinks differently, we're stuck. It's not Gattis. Idk why fans want to blame him, maybe blame ponce the qb coach over him? on top of that tvd hasnt even been reading the defense, guys are wide open or dropping passes- just awful connection, the wrs wanna play for Jake

Marcus clarke woulda been starting with rique but i guess he saw the flaw in the way our coaches got catfish by blades and ivey and he decided to bounce, i dont blame him, he woulda never got burnt by middle tennesee.

Mayb play rogers or graves

west and chase smith as lb's --- no brainer

 

[[]_[] swag]

All in +160. That line is absurd. If we win, I'll take the lost cash for a win over the heels.

 

[Empirical Cane]

Man it’s just crazy considering mtsu was bombing us like crazy. Now bring in unc with P5 athletes and a better quarterback, better running backs and better receivers. Including Josh downs who may be a first round pick.

Now if you want to say our team will be fired up? Sure I’ll accept that. But enough to overcome significant matchup disadvantaged at covering receivers, backs and tight ends? Nope. And our bad tackling.

Not to mention our injuries to arroyo, Stevenson, parrish, knighton, Chaney, citizen, X and George? Man I just don’t see what Vegas is seeing.

Also I’m expecting a half full stadium at best

Looking at it objectively, what in the world are Gattis and Steele going to "scheme or fix" that is going to help?

UNC is going to watch MTSU tape and say "just do that with out (allegedly) better athletes"

 

[WanderFranco]

UNC is going to watch MTSU tape and say "just do that with out (allegedly) better athletes"

That's what Georgia did with the Missouri - Kansas State film. Just do that with better athletes. Easy.

 

[Empirical Cane]

That's what Georgia did with the Missouri - Kansas State film. Just do that with better athletes. Easy.

Fair point.

 

[Ghandi]

TVD is starting, this offense will continue to be stuck in mud.

Look at UNC and the money line.

We don’t even have RB to run the ball with. All are injured besides Franklin and the UAB kid/walk-ons

People just keep glossing over this point.

The reason why UNC will be able to stop the run VS Miami is that they don’t have to respect the WR’s.

They can play Cover-1/Robber coverages because their DB’s can shut down the Miami receivers.

Southern Miss wrote the intro, TAMU wrote a the chapters, and MTSU finished and published it.

Load the box, jam the **** out of their soft WR’s and outnumber them in the box.

 

[BeastMode]

TVD is starting, this offense will continue to be stuck in mud.

Look at UNC and the money line.


People just keep glossing over this point.

The reason why UNC will be able to stop the run VS Miami is that they don’t have to respect the WR’s.

They can play Cover-1/Robber coverages because their DB’s can shut down the Miami receivers.

Southern Miss wrote the intro, TAMU wrote a the chapters, and MTSU finished and published it.

Load the box, jam the **** out of their soft WR’s and outnumber them in the box.

Exactly. We don’t have the players aint ppl just can’t accept it. We got a bunch of lower tier average college players. Just where the roster is now

 

[BeastMode]

Exactly. We don’t have the players aint ppl just can’t accept it. We got a bunch of lower tier average college players. Just where the roster is now

But but but our blue chip ratio!!!! Our top players are injured. It’s ugly right now.