Draft - Miami Players Consensus Projections

[avax]

 

[HighSeas]

2019 Consensus Big Board: Comparing draft forecasters vs. evaluators

Comparing the rankings of draft forecasters and evaluators from 45 different big boards to create a consensus top 300 draft board.

theathletic.com

The left rank is consensus, the middle is "forecasters" (evaluators who have NFL sources), the right is "evaluators" (outsider scouts). Numbers to the right are position rank and tier.

Unsurprisingly you can draw a correlation between the guys who didn't test well who are higher on the evaluator rank vs. the guys who tested well and are higher on the forecaster rank. So it looks like another crop of Canes who will outperform their draft position.

91

92

85

Gerald Willis III

Miami (FL)

DL3T

7

10

103

119

102

Joe Jackson

Miami (FL)

DL5T

6

11

134

173

131

Jaquan Johnson

Miami (FL)

S

10

12

153

207

155

Michael Jackson

Miami (FL)

CB

17

13

178

178

190

Sheldrick Redwine

Miami (FL)

S

14

13

207

182

216

Travis Homer

Miami (FL)

RBF

18

13

 

[gogeta4]

With few exceptions (David Njoku, Redwine, Rayshawn Jenkins, Travis Homer, Michael Jackson)...our team athleticism has been horrendous. Not "not good", not "below average", not "bad"...buck embarrassingly horrendous.

Long time, high star starters for us...McDermott, Darling, Chad Thomas, Joe Jackson, Jaquan Johnson, Tito, Mark Walton, Jamal Carter...I could go on...but you get the point. Like, go look at their 3sigma scores...guys that aren't even FBS quality athletes. Really bad trend that needs to stop immediately. You have people on this very forum saying getting guys like Lejond Cavazos isn't that important because he's "low on our board"...whatever that means. All I know is he is one of the best athletes in the country...you take that all day every day. I'll take my chances.

My man i know all that sigma talk sounds good an all...but Im taking literally ALLL those guys u listed..EVERY year at Um.

Ill likely holla at you when u wanna speak about track or something else...but football is typically played on the field with helmets and shoulder pads. Lot of the names you listed were good football players in shoulder pads and helmets. I could really care less about draft grade, analytics, bs. We need to win games HERE..not in the nfl.

 

[gogeta4]

I agree, Gary is the much better bet.

Jackson may have tested worse than Thomas - but both tested poorly. I agree with you that it wouldn't be surprising to see Jackson fall below his projection.

The interesting thing to me is Jackson had 22.5 sacks in 3 years and Thomas had 10 sacks in 4 years. Jackson was WAY more productive. At least Jackson got Honorable Mention All ACC, Thomas didn't even get that.

But Thomas was projected as a 5th-7th round pick and almost ended up in the 2nd round. And I think that largely due to him being a 5 Star in HS. Once someone gets a reputation as a great player, that can be just as valuable as athleticism or production.

No likely due to him performing solidly against other draftable guys and at sr bowls. Also there is a MIAMI bump for guys that we as fans typically ignore. All that being said Joe Jackson is gone by the 3rd round. Despite gm's putting out stuff to lower the grades on some guys that they want. Getting um players in the draft is bargain shopping. I still vividly remember the d*ck riding that took place on Trent Richardson by some of these same chatters.

I saw Dwayne Haskins pull away from Rashaan Gary in a game...he'll be drafted high based off the athleticism..but film and production wise..Joe Jackson outplayed him. But he has a higher ceiling to some due to the athleticism. Coaches bank on being able to bring that out of him

 

[BoxingRobes]

My man i know all that sigma talk sounds good an all...but Im taking literally ALLL those guys u listed..EVERY year at Um.

Ill likely holla at you when u wanna speak about track or something else...but football is typically played on the field with helmets and shoulder pads. Lot of the names you listed were good football players in shoulder pads and helmets. I could really care less about draft grade, analytics, bs. We need to win games HERE..not in the nfl.

Those players that lacked athleticism at UM played way under their star rating and were drafted in kind. Highest pick was Chad Thomas in R3. A few undrafted and a few were deep Day 3 picks.

So, you can ignore athleticism...go ahead, but I wouldn't. Its not the only problem, but its a piece of the pie that quantifies many of our personnel issues.

I'm not saying they are bad players...I take Jaquan Johnson 11 out of 10 times. But he's small and unathletic. It is what it is. You just can't have a team filled with that...and we've had teams filled with small, slow, some combination of the two players over the years...and they've played snaps for days and then you wonder why Miami is going like 7-5 on average over 15 years.

Also, while its easy to look at all of the really ****ty coaches we've had, you can't be ignoring what some of the players became or were while here. A lot of busts that were out of here within two years for tons of reasons. A lot of unathletic players. A lot of players that played well under their high school press clippings. All? No. But a lot over 15 years follow these trends if they stuck around.

 

[bshaw28]

I wanted to look into the whole "Miami guys are underrated" thing and this is what I got

I'm looking at players careers vs. their draft position - using the basic expectations below:

1-2 Rounds - A multi-year starter, major contributor
3-4 Rounds - A solid backup, role player who contributes consistently and can maybe become a starter
5-7 Rounds - A guy who makes the team, and can maybe become more than an occasional contributor

Basically - did the team get a good return on their draft investment?

FROM THE LAST 10 DRAFTS - I included all 48 players and 2 UFA's - 50 players total

Played Above Draft Position (13 Players - 26%)
3rd - Olivier Vernon, Duke Johnson, Allen Bailey, Brandon Linder, Jimmy Graham
4th - Lamar Miller, Travis Benjamin, Chris Herndon
6th - Anthony Chickillo
7th - Adrian Colbert, Seantrel Henderson
UFA - Sam Shields, Allen Hurns

Played Below Draft Position (10 Players - 20%)
1st - Ereck Flowers, Artie Burns, Phillip Dorsett
2nd - Brandon Harris
3rd - Chad Thomas, Clive Walford, DVD
4th - Mark Walton
5th - Brandon McGee, Corn Elder (I included these 2 because they were Top 150 players, taken 149th and 152 overall)


Played Close to Draft Position (27 Players - 54%)
1st - David Njoku
2nd - Orlando Franklin, Denzel Perryman
3rd - Leonard Hankerson, Sean Spence
4th - Daryl Sharpton, Colin McCarthy, Rayshawn Jenkins, Deon Bush, Jon Feliciano, Jason Fox
5th - RJ McIntosh, Danny Isidora
6th - Spencer Adkins, Richard Gordon, Mike James, Pat O'Donnell, Matt Bosher, AQM, Tommy Streeter, Brandon Washington, Brad Kaaya, Braxton Berrios
7th - Stacey Coley, Dedrick Epps, Marquez Williams, Kendrick Norton


This is all VERY SUBJECTIVE. I highlighted what I think are my most questionable calls - I've got no problem if you disagree with them. But I think I'm pretty close on the rest. I only included the obvious UFA's.

But overall - Miami guys only outplay their draft positions only a slightly higher % than they're drafted too high. Most are valued about right.

 

[blackvern]

Lol at Mike Jackson being a 6th round draft pick... he’ll get drafted by the 3rd at the latest.

Joe Jackson - 1st round
Gerald Willis - 2nd round
Mike Jack - 2nd round
Jaquan Johnson - 4th round
Sheldrick Redwine - 4th round
Travis Homer - 4th round

 

[texascane12]

I wanted to look into the whole "Miami guys are underrated" thing and this is what I got

I'm looking at players careers vs. their draft position - using the basic expectations below:

1-2 Rounds - A multi-year starter, major contributor
3-4 Rounds - A solid backup, role player who contributes consistently and can maybe become a starter
5-7 Rounds - A guy who makes the team, and can maybe become more than an occasional contributor

Basically - did the team get a good return on their draft investment?

FROM THE LAST 10 DRAFTS - I included all 48 players and 2 UFA's - 50 players total

Played Above Draft Position (13 Players - 26%)
3rd - Olivier Vernon, Duke Johnson, Allen Bailey, Brandon Linder, Jimmy Graham
4th - Lamar Miller, Travis Benjamin, Chris Herndon
6th - Anthony Chickillo
7th - Adrian Colbert, Seantrel Henderson
UFA - Sam Shields, Allen Hurns

Played Below Draft Position (10 Players - 20%)
1st - Ereck Flowers, Artie Burns, Phillip Dorsett
2nd - Brandon Harris
3rd - Chad Thomas, Clive Walford, DVD
4th - Mark Walton
5th - Brandon McGee, Corn Elder (I included these 2 because they were Top 150 players, taken 149th and 152 overall)


Played Close to Draft Position (27 Players - 54%)
1st - David Njoku
2nd - Orlando Franklin, Denzel Perryman
3rd - Leonard Hankerson, Sean Spence
4th - Daryl Sharpton, Colin McCarthy, Rayshawn Jenkins, Deon Bush, Jon Feliciano, Jason Fox
5th - RJ McIntosh, Danny Isidora
6th - Spencer Adkins, Richard Gordon, Mike James, Pat O'Donnell, Matt Bosher, AQM, Tommy Streeter, Brandon Washington, Brad Kaaya, Braxton Berrios
7th - Stacey Coley, Dedrick Epps, Marquez Williams, Kendrick Norton


This is all VERY SUBJECTIVE. I highlighted what I think are my most questionable calls - I've got no problem if you disagree with them. But I think I'm pretty close on the rest. I only included the obvious UFA's.

But overall - Miami guys only outplay their draft positions only a slightly higher % than they're drafted too high. Most are valued about right.

Much respect for putting this together. Good stuff

 

[TheMatador]

So you're saying Boulware isn't going in the first 3 rounds? Who would have thunk it.

I still think he will.

 

[TheMatador]

Solid work. Seems very realistic

IMO our player development has been trash.

Whether it's from a coaching standpoint or an S&C standpoint, our players leave Miami unpolished. You look at their draft analysis and there's always negative comments about their technique.

The guys we send to the NFL are making it there solely on their physical gifts. Joe Jackson, Chad Thomas, Mike Jackson, Gerald Willis, etc...all could've been better players IMO. They're all physically gifted and look amazing getting off the bus, but none of them got better while they were here. You can argue that if you want to, but if they were developed properly, with their physical attributes, then they would've been first/second rounders. The top programs are taking kids like them and turning them into early draft picks.

Coming out of high school, these weren't some genetically inferior low-rated kids who were "developed" into NFL players by our staff. These kids were sought after. Even as a Freshman, nobody ever questioned whether Joe Jackson or Chad Thomas could turn into an NFL player. The question would be what round. You can tell early who's got NFL potential. Barring any injuries, we already know that Nesta and Rouseau will be NFL prospects in a couple years. Development will determine WHERE.
And development has been an issue at Miami for some years. It shows in the W/L column and it shows in the NFL.

The four players you mentioned each had at least several years under some of our more highly regarded position coaches: Kul/Simpson for the three DLs and Rumph for Jackson. Puzzling that their technique would be found wanting.

 

[bshaw28]

It's a week before the draft - so I looked at different sites rankings of Miami players to see what their composite ranking would look like.

- I made an average of where they ranked overall and at their position.
- I only used sites that had an overall "big board" list of 250+ players (big enough to have all our players ranked)

Hopefully they all get drafted at the high end of their projections

View attachment 83664

Just circling back on these players projected draft ranges vs. actual

Gerald Willis - 2nd - 4th. Undrafted
Joe Jackson - 2nd - 5th. 5th round
Jaquan Johnson - 3rd - 5th. 6th round
Sheldrick Redwine - 4th -5th. 4th round
Michael Jackson - 5th-7th. 5th round
Travis Homer - 4th-7th. 6th round


High End - Redwine, Mike Jack
Low End - Joe Jackson, Jaquan, Homer
Shocker - Willis

While it felt disappointing overall, with the exception of Willis our players went about in their expected range.

 

[Kidhurricane]

So glad he got drafted.

 

[Tit-e-skr]

Because stats have nothing to do with how someone projects on the next level. He's not an elite pass rusher. You keep pumping the stat narrative every time he's brought up.

That's his game. He also posted the "value in the 5th round" snippet too. That somehow validated his claim that Joe was/is a great player.

 

[Geddy Lee]

Both Jackson’s and Willis go in the 3rd. Redwine 4th to the Bears, Johnson 6th, Homer 5th-6th. The combine helped Homer big time, otherwise he’d go 6th-undrafted.

Well finished 50% here. I really thought both Jackson’s would go higher than the 5th. Willis I’d rather not talk about.