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Do we have a shot against FSU?

423Hurricane said:
A usual, I believe it'll come down to how well our OL plays. If they can open some holes for Parrish and at least give Jake time to complete some short passes - screens, bubbles, in the flats, etc. - we can beat those semeholes. Our D needs to eliminate or limit big plays and hammer Travis.
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Limiting their explosive plays will be the key, I agree with you 100%. We actually have been somewhat decent on limiting explosive plays, the problem has been on the ones we have allowed, they've been REALLY explosive.

For example, we are 25th in the country in 10+ yard scrimmage plays allowed. Not awful. We are 19th in 20+ yard scrimmage plays allowed. Again, not awful.

But we are 81st in 40+ yard plays surrendered, 117th in 50+ plays surrendered, and literally the worst in the country in 60+ yard plays and more. In fact, we are the only team in America who has allowed TWO plays of over 80 yards. Not a single team has given up more than 1.

So when we've had busts, we've had completely egregious busts which have resulted in massive gains. But the down to down defense has been respectable.

Now...this is where FSU thrives. They are one of the most explosive offenses in the country. There are only 3 teams in the entire country who have more 20+ yard plays than FSU. Ohio State, Ole Miss, and USC. That's it. They've had 6 plays of 50+ yards already this year.....Miami's offense consequently has 1. And honestly, they do it both ways. They are 7th in the country in 20+ yard passing plays, and they're 6th in the country in 20+ yard rushing plays.

If we can make them methodical, we can win. Make them sustain drives, and they'll shoot themselves in the foot (they're very poor in penalties) or you can get negative plays on them (78th in TFL's allowed).
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Limiting their explosive plays will be the key, I agree with you 100%. We actually have been somewhat decent on limiting explosive plays, the problem has been on the ones we have allowed, they've been REALLY explosive.

For example, we are 25th in the country in 10+ yard scrimmage plays allowed. Not awful. We are 19th in 20+ yard scrimmage plays allowed. Again, not awful.

But we are 81st in 40+ yard plays surrendered, 117th in 50+ plays surrendered, and literally the worst in the country in 60+ yard plays and more. In fact, we are the only team in America who has allowed TWO plays of over 80 yards. Not a single team has given up more than 1.

So when we've had busts, we've had completely egregious busts which have resulted in massive gains. But the down to down defense has been respectable.

Now...this is where FSU thrives. They are one of the most explosive offenses in the country. There are only 3 teams in the entire country who have more 20+ yard plays than FSU. Ohio State, Ole Miss, and USC. That's it. They've had 6 plays of 50+ yards already this year.....Miami's offense consequently has 1. And honestly, they do it both ways. They are 7th in the country in 20+ yard passing plays, and they're 6th in the country in 20+ yard rushing plays.

If we can make them methodical, we can win. Make them sustain drives, and they'll shoot themselves in the foot (they're very poor in penalties) or you can get negative plays on them (78th in TFL's allowed).
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Interesting stats. I would have assumed we were much worse on 10+ and 20+.
 
Madabs said:
Completion percentage Miami 62% FSU 61 %, Passing Offense Miami 290 ypg FSU 277 ypg, Rushing Offense FSU 209 Miami 132, Scoring offense FSU 32 Miami 27, Third Down Conversion FSU 49% Miami 42% (They made 52 we made 50) First Downs Miami 195 FSU 192, Time of Possession Miami 31 mins FSU 30, Red Zone Offense Miami 86% 31/36 FSU 76% 29/38 The only one that FSU is way above us is their Rushing offense but that is our defensive strength. Our Offensive Numbers are very similar we just can't score TDS.
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This is really poor analysis, my man.

FSU is 11th in the country in YPP (6.79), we are 88th (5.21)

FSU is 48th in the country in Scoring Offense (30.0), we are 101st (21.3)

FSU is 25th in the country in passer rating (150.12), we are 85th (125.29)

FSU is 16th in the country in rushing yards per attempt (5.23), we are 114th (3.12)

FSU is 4th in the country in 20+ yard scrimmage plays (55), we are 105th (25)

Shall I continue? I'm not sure if you were looking at stats from another year, or on another planet, or what...but in no world are we anywhere close to as effective on offense as they have been this year. Our offense has literally been one of the very worst in the entire country in essentially every and any metric, and that's simply not the case for FSU.
 
AlexCane said:
Interesting stats. I would have assumed we were much worse on 10+ and 20+.
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Agreed. I was somewhat surprised too. I just think that when it's broken, it's REALLY broken. But for the most part, it's not huge gain after huge gain. Just the explosive plays have been absolutely massive.
 
They are going to take an early shot at a deep ball to Wilson. He isnt special but he is tall and fairly athletic. So toss it up and see what happens. If James Williams is ever going to land one of his attempted knock out blows this is the game one could be needed.
 
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I’m not looking forward to this one at all. We’ve looked like crap all season and now we’re supposed to not believe what our eyes have seen?
IMO this could very likely be FSU’s revenge on the *** beating we gave them a couple of years ago.
A mediocre Duke hung 45 on us…hate to say it but not getting blown out is a victory in itself.
 
Lots of *****made fans masquerading as Canes on this board. I don't give a **** if we were playing the 99 Noles in their prime, and all we had were walk-ons and guys pulled from the Wellness Center, I'm not asking that question. We always have a shot. Period.

Put your man pants on, and show some **** pride.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Agreed. I was somewhat surprised too. I just think that when it's broken, it's REALLY broken. But for the most part, it's not huge gain after huge gain. Just the explosive plays have been absolutely massive.
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In addition to broken coverages, we have a few guys in the Back 7 who simply cannot get to spots well. So, a cutback and go play like against MTSU is a potential disaster... at any moment. Tough situation.

A scan of their strengths and our weaknesses has either Steele making a significant adjustment to contain Travis, or Travis rushing for approximately 9,000 scramble yards.
 
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If TVD plays, we lose by 10. If not, we lose by 28. Sorry, just don't see it with this team/offensive scheme.

Not unless the D plays lights out and allows no broken plays.
 
Imukat said:
Travis, Ward and Wilson are dangerous. No one else is much of a threat on a game by game basis, but we'll probably allow some scrub on their team to shine.

Norvell does scheme it up pretty well for his RB's though. Even a jag like Toafili has a good ypc.
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I agree and as difficult as it is for us to score I'm afraid all it takes is one or two good plays by them that can put the game out of reach. If Garcia plays if FSU just gets to 21 that might be it.
 
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LuCane said:
In addition to broken coverages, we have a few guys in the Back 7 who simply cannot get to spots well. So, a cutback and go play like against MTSU is a potential disaster... at any moment. Tough situation.

A scan of their strengths and our weaknesses has either Steele making a significant adjustment to contain Travis, or Travis rushing for approximately 9,000 scramble yards.
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I believe Travis has been HEAVILY coached to scramble to throw this year versus his last 2 years. Now, all of what you said is 1000% true, and I'm sure he'll scramble against us with how much we've struggled with it, but it's been very odd to me watching them all year as far as how little he's been running. They run very few designed runs for him, and he really doesn't run much when he scrambles anymore.

For example, he had 1 "carry" for -7 yards last week. Clearly a sack. So he had 0 designed rushing attempts, and 0 scrambles where he ran. In 2021, of the games where he played the majority of the snaps, the FEWEST rush attempts he had was 9, and that was in a blowout against UMass. Every other game, he was getting heavy double-digit rushing attempts. Against us, he had 22 (!!) rushes. This year, the most he's had in any game is 14 vs Clemson, but that's the only game he's had more than 8. He's being deployed much, much differently this year.

If we have fans out there who will watch FSU for the first time this week, they're going to wonder who the **** #13 is. He's not amazing, I'm not saying that. But the way he's being used and the way the offense looks is 180 degrees different than how it's been. He's much improved as a passer and it's clear that's been a point of emphasis from the staff. He scrambles to throw now, where the last 2 years, if the first read wasn't there, he was out the gate. Not the case anymore.
 
One thing I learned a long time about the UM-FSU rivalry is that all logic goes out the window.

Anything can happen in this game. The less talented team has won many times in this game.

Key for me will be our running game. If we could slow down the game and control the clock coupled with our solid defense, we have a chance IMO
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
I believe Travis has been HEAVILY coached to scramble to throw this year versus his last 2 years. Now, all of what you said is 1000% true, and I'm sure he'll scramble against us with how much we've struggled with it, but it's been very odd to me watching them all year as far as how little he's been running. They run very few designed runs for him, and he really doesn't run much when he scrambles anymore.

For example, he had 1 "carry" for -7 yards last week. Clearly a sack. So he had 0 designed rushing attempts, and 0 scrambles where he ran. In 2021, of the games where he played the majority of the snaps, the FEWEST rush attempts he had was 9, and that was in a blowout against UMass. Every other game, he was getting heavy double-digit rushing attempts. Against us, he had 22 (!!) rushes. This year, the most he's had in any game is 14 vs Clemson, but that's the only game he's had more than 8. He's being deployed much, much differently this year.
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Appreciate the numbers and, yes, I've watched him this year.

Nonetheless, this past Saturday, I believe I counted three 3rd downs of 12+ yards where either the scramble or the threat of scramble turned our back 7 into chaos.

I'd expect the same against FSU - unless there is a brand new wrinkle added, which I hope.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
This is really poor analysis, my man.

FSU is 11th in the country in YPP (6.79), we are 88th (5.21)

FSU is 48th in the country in Scoring Offense (30.0), we are 101st (21.3)

FSU is 25th in the country in passer rating (150.12), we are 85th (125.29)

FSU is 16th in the country in rushing yards per attempt (5.23), we are 114th (3.12)

FSU is 4th in the country in 20+ yard scrimmage plays (55), we are 105th (25)

Shall I continue? I'm not sure if you were looking at stats from another year, or on another planet, or what...but in no world are we anywhere close to as effective on offense as they have been this year. Our offense has literally been one of the very worst in the entire country in essentially every and any metric, and that's simply not the case for FSU.
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All my stats are from this year from the NCAA website, yours are showing a team that has big plays. Because Travis has only completed 146 passes this season and is 61% TVD was benched and played in 1 less game and he still has 152 passes. Even against GT, he was 63% throwing for 396. Travis Completes 18 passes a game. He's an all-or-nothing QB. We get into the Red Zone just as many times as FSU we don't score TDS. You showing the top 25 stats in all these categories yet they're only 48th in scoring. That just shows that they're getting these big chunk plays in the middle of the field then when they get into the Red Zone they cant score.
 
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