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D1 & BA projections.

scane said:
Could be that they’re not as “live” as Warren Nolan. It took them quite a while to update the ND loss. It’s also possible they’re handling Southern Miss home/neutral differently with a conference tourney in their ballpark.
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I know that Boyd Nation has said that the exact formula is unknown because there are bonuses and penalties not revealed by the NCAA. So each site has their own estimate of the actual numbers. Plus the neutral site dilemma that you mentioned.
 
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NC_Canes_11 said:
What’s the difference in formula for D1’s RPI and Warren Nolan? D1 has USM at 14 even after the loss. Seems like they are the only one that’s way off from everyone else’s. Might be the reason they were the only ones that’s had USM as a top 8 coming into this week. At least the only projection that I remember.
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It’s definitely the neutral site thing. D1 is counting them as neutral site games while Warren Nolan considers them home games. It’s the difference between being in front of or behind us. I think they should be home games, but I’m not sure the NCAA would agree.
 
D1 has us back as the #7 seed this morning, with ND at #8 and Southern Miss dropped to #10 paired with our regional.

They also have UF hosting, so Texas Tech is now our 2 seed.



NATIONAL SEED/HOST PICTURE

• Southern Miss and Notre Dame both losing Saturday opened the door for Miami to slide back into a top eight seed. The Golden Eagles slipped all the day down to No. 19 in the RPI, which just seems too low for a top-eight seed from a non-power-four conference, despite USM’s regular-season title in C-USA. So Miami and Notre Dame get our final two spots in the top eight, with the Hurricanes back ahead of the Irish in the pecking order thanks to a better aggregate conference record (20-12 vs. 18-12) and the head-to-head advantage (Miami took two of three from the Irish just last weekend). For now, the Irish hang onto their top-eight spot, but Texas could bump them out of the top eight if it can win the Big 12 tournament on Sunday.
 
BA still has us at 9. They also have Florida hosting although only BA sends FSU there. They send us Oklahoma, Oregon, and Hofstra.
 
BA thinks North Carolina will be the #5 overall seed. They have Notre Dame at #12.
 
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ewcanes said:
They have UNC as the #5 seed, that seems very suspect.
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The thought crossed my mind last night. I don’t think they’ll do it, but the committee has done some insane things over the years that can only be explained by following the RPI. It’s possible all the chaos causes them to stick closer to the RPI than ever in a year they should ignore it.
 
UNC finished with the 8th best record in the regular season, that would be a wild decision by the committee.

If anything, their RPI being boosted by all the ACC teams this week should make more of a point for the regular season records to matter.
 
Too many put to much emphasis emphasis on the conference tournaments in baseball and basketball for that matter.

Unless you win the tournament which can automatically put teams in, committees value the entire body of work in the regular season much more so than a 3-4 day tournament where a team can catch lightning in a bottle.
 
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gacaneaddict said:
Too many put to much emphasis emphasis on the conference tournaments in baseball and basketball for that matter.

Unless you win the tournament which can automatically put teams in, committees value the entire body of work in the regular season much more so than a 3-4 day tournament where a team can catch lightning in a bottle.
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I hope you are right, but the baseball Committee doesn't get anywhere near the attention basketball does, so, let's hope they follow your logic.
 
gacaneaddict said:
Too many put to much emphasis emphasis on the conference tournaments in baseball and basketball for that matter.

Unless you win the tournament which can automatically put teams in, committees value the entire body of work in the regular season much more so than a 3-4 day tournament where a team can catch lightning in a bottle.
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Ehhh, the D1 guys are pretty good at this, and they have had teams moving in and out based on conference tournaments.
 
ewcanes said:
D1 has us back as the #7 seed this morning, with ND at #8 and Southern Miss dropped to #10 paired with our regional.

They also have UF hosting, so Texas Tech is now our 2 seed.



NATIONAL SEED/HOST PICTURE

• Southern Miss and Notre Dame both losing Saturday opened the door for Miami to slide back into a top eight seed. The Golden Eagles slipped all the day down to No. 19 in the RPI, which just seems too low for a top-eight seed from a non-power-four conference, despite USM’s regular-season title in C-USA. So Miami and Notre Dame get our final two spots in the top eight, with the Hurricanes back ahead of the Irish in the pecking order thanks to a better aggregate conference record (20-12 vs. 18-12) and the head-to-head advantage (Miami took two of three from the Irish just last weekend). For now, the Irish hang onto their top-eight spot, but Texas could bump them out of the top eight if it can win the Big 12 tournament on Sunday.
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I want nothing to do with Texas tech. Pitching is volatile but that lineup can mash. Think with Southern Miss and ND’s losses, we’re semi-firmly set in a 7 or 8 slot as a national seed - we definitely got a bit lucky. Texas could sneak into the convo but I think they’d bump ND out if anything (D1Baseball has the Irish as the last national seed right now).

Gators win today and they’re for sure hosting, but think they will end up hosting regardless of the result today.
 
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Below is my top 8 projection followed by D1's current top 8 projection, then followed by their final 2021 projection and 2021 NCAA top 8 field.

I don't think the D-1 projection is entirely accurate.

Looking at the D-1 2021 projection,

Notre Dame was not a top 8 team by the NCAA. In fact, they were the #10 seed rather than their #6 projection. What is glaring is their RPI of 54. That's the only reason I can see that the committee justified moving them from the top 8 despite going 25-10 winning the ACC regular season and 1-1 in the ACC tournament.

Texas Tech got the #8 seed with an RPI of 10 and a SOS of 15 despite going 14-10 in the Big 12 and going 1-2 in the Big 12 tournament.

For the the 2022 projection,

There is no way Maryland is a top 8 seed with a SOS of 109 despite winning the Big 10 (see ND 2021) which is nowhere close to the strength of the ACC.

I'm not comfortable that Miami is a #7 seed with an RPI of 17. Haven't see an team in the top 8 with a double digit RPI.

Notre Dame could be ahead of Miami based on RPI and the fact the committee left them out of the top 8 last year.

Look out for Texas and Florida. The committee put a 14-10 Big 12 Texas Tech team in the top 8 despite going 1-2 in the Big 12 tournament.

Texas is 14-10 in the Big 12, but unlike the 2021 Texas Tech team, they are 4-1 in the Big 12 tournament and are playing for the Big 12 tournament title today. With a current RPI of 12 and SOS of 32, Texas could make the top 8 with a Big 12 conference tournament title.

East Carolina is also in the conversation for a top 8 seed. They have an RPI of 15 (ahead of Miami) and a SOS of 34. They are also playing for their conference title today. A win could elevate them to a top 8 seed depending on what the committee values most.

All the folks that said the ACC tournament doesn't matter are DEAD wrong!!! North Carolina is projected as the #11 team. They have vaulted themselves into hosting and perhaps a national top 8 seed with their ACC tournament play. They currently have an RPI of 4 and a SOS of 3. A win today pushes their ACC record to 19-15. I think they become a top 8 team. They could even jump Notre Dame and Miami winning the ACC tournament.

Florida has played its way to hosting. I believe they are also in the conversation for a top 8 seed if they beat Tennessee to with the SEC tournament. Currently, they have an RPI of 11 and a SOS of 11. Both would RPI and SOS would like be under 8 with a win against Tennessee.

Miami has really put itself in the top 8 pickle by not winning at least 1 game in the ACC tournament. Depending on what happens today and how the committee evaluates the teams, it's hard to say where UM will be. Could be anywhere from #6-#10.

In the projections below, the first "()" is the RPI and the second "()" is the SOS.

Number1CanesFan's Top 8 Projection
1. Tennessee (1)(43)
2. Stanford (3)(42)
3. Virginia Tech (5)(53)
4. Oregon State (2)(16)
5. Texas A&M (20)(22)
6. North Carolina (3)(4) - RPI and SOS are much stronger than Miami or ND despite getting swept by UM
7. Miami (17)(23) - Could move to #9 with Florida, Texas, and East Carolina winning
8. Texas (12)(32) - RPI and SOS will boost with a Big 12 tournament title win
9. Notre Dame (13)(54)
10. Florida (11)(11) - Florida loses to Tennessee. A win pushes Florida to #8

D-1 5-29-2022 Top 8 Projection
1. Tennessee (1)(43)
2. Stanford (3)(42)
3. Virginia Tech (5)(53)
4. Oregon State (2)(16)
5. Texas A&M (20)(22)
6. Maryland (9)(109)
7. Miami (17)(23)
8. Notre Dame (13)(54)
9. Texas (12)(32)
11. North Carolina (4)(3)
12. East Carolina (15)(34)
15. Florida (11)(11)

D-1 5-30-2021 Top 8 Projection
1. Arkansas (1)(1)
2. Tennessee (5)(24)
3. Texas (6)(22)
4. Vanderbilt (3)(16)
5. Arizona (9)(21)
6. Notre Dame (11)(54)
7. TCU (10)(15)
8. Mississippi State (7)(17)

NCAA 2021 Field
1. Arkansas (1)(1)
2. Texas (6)(22)
3. Tennessee (5)(24)
4. Vanderbilt (3)(16)
5. Arizona (9)(21)
6. TCU (10)(15)
7. Mississippi State (7)(17)
8. Texas Tech (10)(15)
 
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It’s clear nobody knows what to do with us. I’m in the category of us being 7 right now and if Texas wins they take the 8 spot, or even take 7 and move us to 8. ND had to win this weekend to jump us. They didn’t. And this whole Carolina thing to top 8, is ridiculous. I’d have their ceiling at 12. I’m a huge advocate of conference tourneys meaning something, but you shouldn't be able to go from not even a regional host, to top 8 bc you won 4 games.

But as I’ve said my predictions the last two weeks aren’t my opinion, they are my predictions of what the committee will do. And it’s never been more of a clusterf*ck than it has this year. Mediocre baseball and pure chaos. So I wouldn’t be shocked if Carolina knocks us out of top 8.
 
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WeBallinBoyz said:
I want nothing to do with Texas tech. Pitching is volatile but that lineup can mash. Think with Southern Miss and ND’s losses, we’re semi-firmly set in a 7 or 8 slot as a national seed - we definitely got a bit lucky. Texas could sneak into the convo but I think they’d bump ND out if anything (D1Baseball has the Irish as the last national seed right now).

Gators win today and they’re for sure hosting, but think they will end up hosting regardless of the result today.
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Yep, that got my attention as well.

They attack the ball like I wish our lineup would most days.
 
Nice post Number1 - all makes sense. All that is certain for us is we’re on the cusp and could go either way. We’ll see.
 
Let’s just say UF, UNC, and UND somehow vault into the top 8 like many have said. We’re 6-3 against those three. If they’re in the discussion, we better be.
 
Has it ever been definitively settled that Maryland can host a regional? Isn’t their stadium too small?
 
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