MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

[Ispyin]

Is he from Virginia?

Northern ******?

FIFY

 

[Hold My Beer]

When the SEC and B1G want to collectively poach/accept schools willing to leave the ACC/Big 12:

When Smash Capital, Jack Swarbrick and Project Rudy want to gobble up and oversee every brand in College Sports worth anything:

 

[MPCane17]

For the lawyers here…. Does this bill impact our ability to move to the BIG ahead of its planned going into effect? Or is the plan for the moves to happen before it goes into effect and then lock everything down?

To me it sounds like Joe, preempted the additional coming out on this bill today?

 

[skyman]

 

[TheOriginalCane]

For the lawyers here…. Does this bill impact our ability to move to the BIG ahead of its planned going into effect? Or is the plan for the moves to happen before it goes into effect and then lock everything down?

To me it sounds like Joe, preempted the additional coming out on this bill today?

Given that these conversations have transpired OVER YEARS, I feel confident that any upcoming announcement that pre-dates the passage of the bill should be adequate.

Unless the expansion police are called, and they come out to put a couple of university presidents in "violation of a civil law" jail.

Honestly, what can the government do? What's next, Congress passes a bill to break up the SEC like they are Standard Oil?

 

[ssvir]

The BIG10 and SEC will never share their media $ with anyone. Thats why this bill is DOA. Theres 0 incentive for them to do so. I'd expect we may hear more on the realignment front before august if this bill does indeed continue to move forward. This bill is not a college athletics nirvana where we go back to regional comp, everyone gets same media payout, athletes go back to being just students, and everyone sings "we are the world" before the national title.
This is a Frankenstein attempt by certain powers within our government and at a specific university to use the struggle of lesser schools to their advantage to wrest control of college sports from the conferences and seismically change the college landscape, presumably with the "Help" of PE. This bill is a disaster, a bait and switch, and will almost certainly be challenged in court on multiple fronts for a plethora of reasons least of which is an arbitrary restriction of freedom of association of private entities and the restriction of trade with the limitation of athlete compensation. I could go on but this bill will get torn apart before its allowed to accomplish what it set out to do. In the words of the bill's main sponsor university "i'd bet on it".

 

[skyman]

 

[Canesfan1993]

Miami has not signed on in support of the bill. neither have multiple ACC schools. Do with that what you will...

 

[caneworld]

I am in a kaizen event, so I can't listen, can you cliff's note it out?

They still have those fad events ??.... 30 years later??

 

[Ispyin]

 

[Calinative]

GOR and all the media rights deals technically end like 2030-2032 for all the conferences, right? So for 27, 28, 29, 30, 31 season, to be out of ACC and in B1G assuming at least a $20M/yr difference in revenue distribution is $100M. So a $147M payment that immediately sets you up to make $100M right off rip due to the media deal, is really not that crazy. It’s a $47M difference. And if you want to factor in the $20M+ we got from the CFP last yr and the fact that NOW the CFP payouts as an ACC member have been artificially capped lower it seems, that $20M potential windfall has been eliminated. So then you could say maybe it’s closer to $30M/yr difference by being B1G vs ACC these next 5 yrs which would mean …..$150M… meaning it’s entirely reasonable to say the payout from being in ACC the next 5 yrs vs B1G is likely to be NET equal at worst for us tbh. Which is important because if it all equal then that $147M exit fee is really nothing to stop us. Isure it’s an upfront payment, but if it’s the difference in being in B1G before **** changes or being locked in ACC, it’s obvious what pick would be.

 

[Canesfan1993]

battle lines being drawn. this will be a fun 6 weeks to the august recess.

 

[skyman]

GOR and all the media rights deals technically end like 2030-2032 for all the conferences, right? So for 27, 28, 29, 30, 31 season, to be out of ACC and in B1G assuming at least a $20M/yr difference in revenue distribution is $100M. So a $147M payment that immediately sets you up to make $100M right off rip due to the media deal, is really not that crazy. It’s a $47M difference. And if you want to factor in the $20M+ we got from the CFP last yr and the fact that NOW the CFP payouts as an ACC member have been artificially capped lower it seems, that $20M potential windfall has been eliminated. So then you could say maybe it’s closer to $30M/yr difference by being B1G vs ACC these next 5 yrs which would mean …..$150M… meaning it’s entirely reasonable to say the payout from being in ACC the next 5 yrs vs B1G is likely to be NET equal at worst for us tbh. Which is important because if it all equal then that $147M exit fee is really nothing to stop us. Isure it’s an upfront payment, but if it’s the difference in being in B1G before **** changes or being locked in ACC, it’s obvious what pick would be.

I thought ACC locked in their great deal for longest time compared to everyone else who woill resign twice before we resign in mid 2030s

 

[Ispyin]

I thought ACC locked in their great deal for longest time compared to everyone else who woill resign twice before we resign in mid 2030s

it doesnt matter, you can buy your way out from 147 today to 75M in a few years regardless of the 2036 date

 

[Calinative]

I thought ACC locked in their great deal for longest time compared to everyone else who woill resign twice before we resign in mid 2030s

The FSU and Clemson lawsuit settled to have negotiated buyouts going down to $75M from like 2031-2036. It decreases by $18M/yr or something like that. So $147 now, like $129M following yr, $111M yr after, $93M, then $75M until 2036

 

[Calinative]

Also just looking B1G paid $76M avg to schools in 25 for 24 season. ACC paid $47M/member same yr. That’s a $30M difference…. TODAY. It’s only increasing going forward.

So actually maybe being in B1G asap is worth closer to $30-$40M more per year than ACC if you are getting fulll distribution. Which means leaving at $147M beginning in 2027 season is well worth it.

However with ACC success initiative (not just the CFP results it also redistributed more based on ratings instead of all even) this maybe lower than $30M and likely closer to my original $20M estimate… so

But also it’s $75M to leave 2031-2036 I think. And B1G media deal ends like 2031. So you’d want to at worst be in by then. So no matter what the reality is at min we are likely paying $75M to leave. So $147M vs $75M in 5 yrs… that’s a $72M/yr saving in reality. So $20M-$30M or more for being in B1G asap is obvoous

 

[skyman]

Also just looking B1G paid $76M avg to schools in 25 for 24 season. ACC paid $47M/member same yr. That’s a $30M difference…. TODAY. It’s only increasing going forward.

So actually maybe being in B1G asap is worth closer to $30-$40M more per year than ACC if you are getting fulll distribution. Which means leaving at $147M beginning in 2027 season is well worth it.

However with ACC success initiative (not just the CFP results it also redistributed more based on ratings instead of all even) this maybe lower than $30M and likely closer to my original $20M estimate… so

But also it’s $75M to leave 2031-2036 I think. And B1G media deal ends like 2031. So you’d want to at worst be in by then. So no matter what the reality is at min we are likely paying $75M to leave. So $147M vs $75M in 5 yrs… that’s a $72M/yr saving in reality. So $20M-$30M or more for being in B1G asap is obvoous

Will we be able to leave since they snuck in that law now to save cfb and get signed by senate?

 

[skyman]

Always got to slip the poison pill in last second before weekend holiday..

 

[Distructobot3000]

Will we be able to leave since they snuck in that law now to save cfb and get signed by senate?

I am far from a legal expert so forgive me if this is a dumb question or if this has already been covered in this thread and I am just too ignorant in these matters to understand if it was, but if we were to come into an agreement to join the BIG10 now, with the understanding that that we would not actually be physically leaving the ACC until 2-3 years in the future, wouldn’t that preclude this potential law from locking us in place since the agreement was signed before the Save Act actually became law?

 

[Gennaker Cane]

Given that these conversations have transpired OVER YEARS, I feel confident that any upcoming announcement that pre-dates the passage of the bill should be adequate.

Unless the expansion police are called, and they come out to put a couple of university presidents in "violation of a civil law" jail.

Honestly, what can the government do? What's next, Congress passes a bill to break up the SEC like they are Standard Oil?

Catching up on this late but is the issue whether the new proposed amendment that the senators think will be upheld, if the bill ever passes, that seeks to prevent a school from leaving one conference to join another going to lead to schools leaving sooner rather than later? I agree with you that the school we care about will leave as soon as there's a place to go, so sooner works. But if not now, I don't think there's a chance in **** this bill will prevent anyone from associating with a conference they choose. For several reasons.