About 700 pages ago I said this likely ends with espn working out a deal to pay the ACC to move FSU and Clemson to the SEC. ACC stays intact for the short term. No one goes to the B1G until 2028. The math works because I think the target date for the next round of expansion is 2028. That was the original expiration of the ACC GOR before all the shenanigans. Espns not going to fight it and the ACC knows it doesn’t want all the back room dealing stuff to come out. FSU and Clemson are in the SEC for the 2025 season.
Let’s say espn pays the 130 million buyout to the ACC for both teams. That’s 260 million. After they leave, it’s 16 teams left. To make the math easy, let’s count Stanford and Cal as 1 team because they each get 1/2 shares. SMU gets zero. So for all practical purposes, let’s say 15 teams share the revenue.
Payouts are currently around 47 million per team. Divide the 260 million between 15 teams, and that’s around 16.5 million per team. Then split up fsus and Clemsons share- that’s another 3 million per team.
Let’s call it an even 20 million total that each ACC team gets after fsu/clemson leave. That puts the annual payout at around 67 million. ESPN wants to keep everyone happy so it kicks in an extra 3 million per team. Now ACC teams are getting 70 million per team. And that’s before any performance based incentives that the ACC agreed to a couple years ago. So the top teams in the ACC get as much, if not more as the P2 schools through 2028. Then it’s every man for himself.
If UM has a nice run over the next 2-3 years and the ratings follow, then we will be attractive to both the SEC and B1G. It actually puts us in an enviable position because we will be the only school in Florida that is keeping the B1G out of the state. The SEC would do anything to keep the B1G out and the B1G absolutely wants in. Networks have a vested interested- Fox wants the Florida carriage fees. So we will effectively be guaranteed full shares in the P2 by both conferences. Apply Occams Razor and I think this is the simplest solution and everyone eventually gets what they want.