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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread(Its still personal)

rascon said:
ACC and FSU and Clemson are headed for divorce. IMHO, the ACC will let them go and instead focus their fight on not letting any other schools out, especially Miami for fear of total implosion. And I think the remaining institutions will vote and PASS new agreements making it harder to leave. That spells long term disaster for Miami. UNC will get subsidies from State of NC and won’t go anywhere and ND will stay as long as ACC remains.

Miami needs to “fight” for their way out right now… or else.
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Handsome Squidbum said:
About 700 pages ago I said this likely ends with espn working out a deal to pay the ACC to move FSU and Clemson to the SEC. ACC stays intact for the short term. No one goes to the B1G until 2028. The math works because I think the target date for the next round of expansion is 2028. That was the original expiration of the ACC GOR before all the shenanigans. Espns not going to fight it and the ACC knows it doesn’t want all the back room dealing stuff to come out. FSU and Clemson are in the SEC for the 2025 season.

Let’s say espn pays the 130 million buyout to the ACC for both teams. That’s 260 million. After they leave, it’s 16 teams left. To make the math easy, let’s count Stanford and Cal as 1 team because they each get 1/2 shares. SMU gets zero. So for all practical purposes, let’s say 15 teams share the revenue.

Payouts are currently around 47 million per team. Divide the 260 million between 15 teams, and that’s around 16.5 million per team. Then split up fsus and Clemsons share- that’s another 3 million per team.

Let’s call it an even 20 million total that each ACC team gets after fsu/clemson leave. That puts the annual payout at around 67 million. ESPN wants to keep everyone happy so it kicks in an extra 3 million per team. Now ACC teams are getting 70 million per team. And that’s before any performance based incentives that the ACC agreed to a couple years ago. So the top teams in the ACC get as much, if not more as the P2 schools through 2028. Then it’s every man for himself.

If UM has a nice run over the next 2-3 years and the ratings follow, then we will be attractive to both the SEC and B1G. It actually puts us in an enviable position because we will be the only school in Florida that is keeping the B1G out of the state. The SEC would do anything to keep the B1G out and the B1G absolutely wants in. Networks have a vested interested- Fox wants the Florida carriage fees. So we will effectively be guaranteed full shares in the P2 by both conferences. Apply Occams Razor and I think this is the simplest solution and everyone eventually gets what they want.
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Am I wrong that the 70 million your talking about is only for one season cause that 260 million from FSU/Clemson leaving is a one time payout so a one time split between the teams?
After that one time split all the teams then go back to just 53 million going forward wouldn't they?
 
rascon said:
ACC and FSU and Clemson are headed for divorce. IMHO, the ACC will let them go and instead focus their fight on not letting any other schools out, especially Miami for fear of total implosion. And I think the remaining institutions will vote and PASS new agreements making it harder to leave. That spells long term disaster for Miami. UNC will get subsidies from State of NC and won’t go anywhere and ND will stay as long as ACC remains.

Miami needs to “fight” for their way out right now… or else.
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Friend, your above scenario makes lite rational, or legal sense, from several lenses.

- UNC athletics can't legally get subsidies from State of North Carolina in this manner
- FSU + Clemson leaving is the implosion of ACC, unless conference can entice remaining members to stay
- ND gon gone meng, unless see bullet #2
 
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Empirical Cane said:
Friend, your above scenario makes lite rational, or legal sense, from several lenses.

- UNC athletics can't legally get subsidies from State of North Carolina in this manner
- FSU + Clemson leaving is the implosion of ACC, unless conference can entice remaining members to stay
- ND gon gone meng, unless see bullet #2
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Not sure where you came up with that ... but ... it IS being discussed in North Carolina. They have been discussing the fact that the State Legislature has established a goal of INCREASING SPORTS TOURISM in North Carolina and they want to do all they can to protect the estimated $500-$600 Million dollar annual economic impact on the Charlotte metro area that ACC Conference activities bring to the region (championship events for different sports, meetings, etc.). It has been mentioned that they are evaluating some financial assistance to UNC and possibly other NC universities to close the gap between the ACC and the SEC that exists due to the different media deals.
 
Rickd said:
Not sure where you came up with that ... but ... it IS being discussed in North Carolina. They have been discussing the fact that the State Legislature has established a goal of INCREASING SPORTS TOURISM in North Carolina and they want to do all they can to protect the estimated $500-$600 Million dollar annual economic impact on the Charlotte metro area that ACC Conference activities bring to the region (championship events for different sports, meetings, etc.). It has been mentioned that they are evaluating some financial assistance to UNC and possibly other NC universities to close the gap between the ACC and the SEC that exists due to the different media deals.
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Let me rephrase...

IF the legislature was foolish enough to pass a subsidy to assist UNC + NC State Athletics so their payoff is on par with SEC/B1G teams, I imagine the court challenges will be tremendous and painful. Second only in galactic stupidity to using UNC Health funds to pay for the futból team.

It will go down as Dylan Mulvaney-esque in PR stupidity as well.
 
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Empirical Cane said:
Let me rephrase...

IF the legislature was foolish enough to pass a subsidy to assist UNC + NC State Athletics so their payoff is on par with SEC/B1G teams, I imagine the court challenges will be tremendous and painful. Second only in galactic stupidity to using UNC Health funds to pay for the futból team.

It will go down as Dylan Mulvaney-esque in PR stupidity as well.
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Unless the ACC consists of UNC and NC State only, hard to see how state of NC subsidies to those 2 schools keeps the ACC intact. If they can negotiate a less painful exit for FSU and Clemson and then tell the remaining members "you guys are stuck" and have it stick in a court of law, then they may have the best negotiators in history.

Of course, if the state of NC wants to protect its "sports tourism" to the point of subsidizing the rest of the ACC's members as well to the tune of the B1G/SEC payouts, then let me be the first to thank the NC taxpayers.
 
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USNAVYCANE said:
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Extremely unlikely. Jim Phillips could’ve had Utah last year, but they took too long. It would’ve been Cal Stanford, Utah and Arizona State. The latter had another landing spot and they took it. Now the path for Utah to get an invite is after the schools of value leave that most likely would diminish the value of the ACC relative to the big 12.


But don’t take it from me, this is a even more fact-based breakdown of why not
 
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rascon said:
ACC and FSU and Clemson are headed for divorce. IMHO, the ACC will let them go and instead focus their fight on not letting any other schools out, especially Miami for fear of total implosion. And I think the remaining institutions will vote and PASS new agreements making it harder to leave. That spells long term disaster for Miami. UNC will get subsidies from State of NC and won’t go anywhere and ND will stay as long as ACC remains.

Miami needs to “fight” for their way out right now… or else.
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Uh Oh Omg GIF by ESPN


Turrible take
 
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CaneinBroward said:
Unless the ACC consists of UNC and NC State only, hard to see how state of NC subsidies to those 2 schools keeps the ACC intact. If they can negotiate a less painful exit for FSU and Clemson and then tell the remaining members "you guys are stuck" and have it stick in a court of law, then they may have the best negotiators in history.

Of course, if the state of NC wants to protect its "sports tourism" to the point of subsidizing the rest of the ACC's members as well to the tune of the B1G/SEC payouts, then let me be the first to thank the NC taxpayers.
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I have little faith in ACC leadership with the backdoor deals they have done in past.
So do I think State of NC is going to subsidize UNC directly? No.
But I wouldn’t be shocked at a scenario where the state of NC will give money to ACC to host their tournaments there and in a n head nod/wink, the ACC will take the money and find a way to give majority of it that doesn’t go into the ACC coffers to UNC through some type of incentives. The ACC leadership has no problems serving as a middle man to deals that benefits a few instead of the whole.
 
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Empirical Cane said:
Friend, your above scenario makes lite rational, or legal sense, from several lenses.

- UNC athletics can't legally get subsidies from State of North Carolina in this manner
- FSU + Clemson leaving is the implosion of ACC, unless conference can entice remaining members to stay
- ND gon gone meng, unless see bullet #2
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I hope you’re right.

I just don't have a lot of confidence in things working out smoothly in terms of our exit.
FSU and Clemson leaving wont be deathblow to ACC because the ACC will be able to entice remaining members to stay. The only school that would have a STRONG P2 possibility among leftovers after FSU and Clemson leave is really Miami (I really don’t think UNC is going anywhere anytime soon). But I don’t think anyone is that confident that ACC is going to play nice with Miami since they haven’t raised a ruckus like FSU and Clemson.

I think the ACC will formulate a strategy to keep itself afloat and will iron out the GOR so that teams will have a way out with something like a decreasing schedule in terms for exit fees, with less money required the longer you stay with ACC.

Again, I hope YOU are right. Hopefully we find out soon.
 
rascon said:
I have little faith in ACC leadership with the backdoor deals they have done in past.
So do I think State of NC is going to subsidize UNC directly? No.
But I wouldn’t be shocked at a scenario where the state of NC will give money to ACC to host their tournaments there and in a n head nod/wink, the ACC will take the money and find a way to give majority of it that doesn’t go into the ACC coffers to UNC through some type of incentives. The ACC leadership has no problems serving as a middle man to deals that benefits a few instead of the whole.
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To your point, I think all of the AD's in the conference have little faith in ACC leadership with backdoor deals after what has been unearthed in court so far. I'm sure all agreements are gone through with a long-toothed comb (which they should have been all along).
 
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