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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread(Its still personal)

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Invalid Username said:
We are left holding our tiny ****s in a **** hole conference.
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mcnaire2004 said:
We've got the best conference academically. We've got one of the deepest conferences athletically. Right now we're making the third most in revenue. We'll be fine.
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If that excites you... you'll love what's on the table and where Frenk would like it to go.

A conference of the best academic private schools with Stanford, Cal, SMU, Duke, Wake, Rice, etc.

Luckily I don't think the rest of the powers in place allow it to go that direction.
 
JayCane20 said:
If that excites you... you'll love what's on the table and where Frenk would like it to go.

A conference of the best academic private schools with Stanford, Cal, SMU, Duke, Wake, Rice, etc.

Luckily I don't think the rest of the powers in place allow it to go that direction.
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Cal is not a private school. Rice is not on the table.

If the ACC wants to expand even further "academically", there is a brand-new AAU institution with a massive enrollment and a massive TV market in Tampa.
 
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TheOriginalCane said:
Cal is not a private school. Rice is not on the table.

If the ACC wants to expand even further "academically", there is a brand-new AAU institution with a massive enrollment and a massive TV market in Tampa.
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Would have rather had them than expanding into California.

Also, guess it is private and/or academic power houses. Not both simultaneously. Rice was one of the last teams mentioned to me if they need numbers but can't pull all the schools they want. Tulane was another ahead of them. They also want Vandy from the SEC, Northwestern from the B1G, GT is in there, BC, and Virginia if they're not in expansion talks.
 
mcnaire2004 said:
We've got the best conference academically. We've got one of the deepest conferences athletically. Right now we're making the third most in revenue. We'll be fine.
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LARGE yikes.

LOL.

The ACC is ******* dead. How many times do people have to explain this? You cannot compete long-term if you're in the ACC. Period. You are at a MASSIVE disadvantage to every single Big 10 and SEC school. Massive. As in, tens of millions of dollars behind. You cannot compete. And this isn't even to mention that these conferences are eventually just going to do their own thing in terms of playoffs, champions, etc. The ACC is a ******* corpse. Go back and re-read the literal very first post of this thread that I started a year ago. Not a single thing has changed. Actually, if anything has, it's that the situation has become MORE dire.

Get out of this conference, or die. It's literally that simple.
 
Sounds like Frenk is trying to do what the NCAA has tried to do for decades, and kill the program off. It's hard enough to fight external enemies, but it looks like our biggest threat is running the school.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
OK, I'll break down the other aspects that I think will start to unfold. And then we can challenge the Four Horsemen of the NOPE-ocalypse (@NorthernVirginiaCane , @Handsome Squidbum , @dycane , and @camber_2374 ) to articulate what THEY think will happen next, since all they ever do is tell us how nobody is goin' nowhere until the mid-2030s.

First, I'd point out that if/when F$U and another school leave, it takes our "votes to kill the ACC" from 8 to 7, but with two fewer "kill" votes. So we go from needing 5 other votes (besides UM, Clemson, and F$U) to needing 6 other votes (besides UM).

So let's think about next steps.

If "Clemson-F$U" heads to ESPN because of the rights flip, it could open up an interesting argument AGAINST the GOR, which I alluded to earlier. That is, if ESPN treats Clemson-F$U rights like poker chips, instead of "but but but we really need all the ACC teams to make a 20 year commitment so that our contract will hold value", then it strengthens the argument that the PENALTY component of the GOR is just a duplicative "exit penalty", since ESPN could ******* care less who is in the below-market ACC as long as they have more worthless inventory to fill timeslots.

And let's think about WHAT would happen if ESPN facilitates 2 (or more) ACC teams to the SEC...

Then, when the Big 10 invites some ACC teams (and make no mistake, the Big 10 has not abandoned the dream of expanding into the southeast), you begin to get into the fun stuff.

1. Who sues? For what? And on what grounds? People have been overly focused on the GOR terms, in the sense that the ACC does not have to give us our share of the annual rights money. BUT WHAT ANNUAL RIGHTS MONEY? The ACC can't actually enforce anything against us, not at the outset. We are ALLOWED to leave the conference, under the terms of the ACC Constitution and Bylaws. And the ACC does not "own" our rights any longer, having sold them to ESPN. So what is the move?

2. Again, AT THE OUTSET, what is ESPN's move? We are 12 months (at least) from the fateful day when broadcast trucks for BOTH Fox/CBS/NBC and ESPN/ABC show up in Miami Gardens to broadcast a Miami home game. Quite simply, the ACC should be terrified of dipping below 15 teams, lest ESPN be within its contractual rights to reopen the contract and pay the ACC actually LESS THAN $35M per school (which is legit in a non-Clemson-F$U world). And ESPN...what...files for declaratory judgment that it can show up to televise our games, which we know that Fox/CBS/NBC will not agree to without compensation. And, then, you'd think that ESPN might have to "continue to pay" the ACC the "old guarantee" if it wants to have a credible argument that televising Miami and any other exiting ACC schools is sooooooo important to its old contract. Because if ESPN activates its right to pay the ACC actually LESS money in the future, then it undermines the (bogus) argument that ESPN really really REALLLLLY wanted the same 15 teams for all 20 years.

3. It is hard to argue that ESPN owns 15 separate media properties. The GOR bundled all 15, and ESPN bought a CONFERENCE worth of inventory. They did not set a separate price for each school, yet we inherently know that "Stanford-Cal" instead of "Clemson-F$U" is LESS VALUABLE. It just is, even without a la carte pricing. And what gets lost on the Four Horsemen of the NOPEocalypse is WHAT HAPPENS WHEN SOMEONE BREACHES. Nobody has disputed that someone CAN assert that they have the right to broadcast Miami home games. What IS at dispute...is what that looks like...I have never said that schools can't leave...and I have never said that the ACC can't withhold annual revenue shares...BUT WHAT I HAVE SAID IS THAT THE ACC HAS NOTHING TO SHARE IF ESPN DOESN'T GIVE THEM THE MONEY. What is ESPN's enforcement tool? To NOT pay the ACC for Miami while insisting that they can broadcast Miami? That's not gonna fly. It's up to the ACC to NOT pay Miami, but it's also incumbent upon ESPN to ACTUALLY PAY the ACC. Interesting conundrum.

4. Here's another thought. The "we're stuck in the ACC" crowd are soooo fond of telling us how "IRREVOCABLE" and "ironclad" the GOR is. But is it? ESPN signed a contract with the ACC knowing FULL WELL that schools could leave at any time. EVEN WITH the paper tiger of the GOR trying to scare everyone straight, it has ALWAYS been the right of schools to leave the ACC. So why should ESPN "continue" to own the rights of anyone who VALIDLY leaves the ACC? They bought a bundle of inventory from a conference of 15 teams knowing that any of those 15 schools could leave. So ESPN, regardless of its purchase of "these" 15 schools, cannot possibly intervene in conference business to tell schools that they cannot leave the conference. Sure, maybe they can insist "but we are bringing a TV truck to your stadium next year", but that has NOTHING to do with the money, per se, it has to do with performance of services. And if ESPN wants to bluff the world that it will pay a half-billion every year to televise some unwilling old-ACC teams (along with some willing still-ACC teams), I would like to see them write that check. Because it will also be a PR disaster IF IF IF they insisted on broadcasting unwilling schools.

5. Here's the reality. If ESPN willingly flips a few ACC schools' rights to the ESPN side of the ledger, I strongly suspect that they will be willing to negotiate to flip a few ACC schools' rights to the Big 10. For a price. And the price will NOT be "35 million per year times 12 years". It will be something. But it won't be that. And maybe Fox/CBS/NBC will advance that money against the "future earnings" of some ACC schools, and in exchange, we agree to take a "partial share" for a while. But it can certainly happen. Anyone who thinks that Disney and Fox aren't willing to buy/sell some of its properties to the other hasn't been paying attention over the last couple of years.

So here's the conclusion. We need to find "enough things" that will make Disney/ESPN/ABC happy, Fox/CBS/NBC happy, the Big 10 happy, the ACC happy ENOUGH, and the various schools that change conferences happy. When that happens, everything will snap into place. Until that time, I hope we retain ALL of our leverage, including the nuclear option (killing the ACC), the "challenge the GOR and/or extension" option, and the "2026/2027 we out" option. I believe that the Big 10 and SEC want to "manage" expansion, and I highly doubt the SEC takes more than 2 more teams and the Big 10 takes more than 4 more teams. I would also look for a few more players to be involved soon, don't rule out USF and a few others. And the Big 12 is not out of the woods yet.

I still believe the Big 10 really really really wants to expand into the southeast.

I still believe that Fox/CBS/NBC want to snatch as many teams as possible prior to making a bid for the CFP broadcast package.

I still believe that the GOR has been waaaaaay oversold in its power and enforceability.

So the next week will be interesting, the next few months will be interesting.
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My head hurts.
 
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JayCane20 said:
Would have rather had them than expanding into California.

Also, guess it is private and/or academic power houses. Not both simultaneously. Rice was one of the last teams mentioned to me if they need numbers but can't pull all the schools they want. Tulane was another ahead of them. They also want Vandy from the SEC, Northwestern from the B1G, GT is in there, BC, and Virginia if they're not in expansion talks.
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I realize that Rice is "available", but it's also the SECOND-SMALLEST undergrad population of all Division I football programs. And nobody in Houston gives a ****.

Vandy isn't leaving the SEC. Northwestern isn't leaving the Big 10. The Big 10 would more likely boot Rutgers/Maryland if anyone gets pushed out.

If the ACC is pulling any other schools, it will have a better shot at the Big 12. UCF would be interested if USF is involved, and UCF wants to make the AAU too (better chances hanging with the ACC than the Big 12). West Virginia (don't laugh) had a legit shot with the SEC and was neck-and-neck with Mizzou for a bid back in 2010-11. Cincy and Houston and Memphis are all PUBLIC schools in big cities. And UConn would suck a **** to get an ACC bid.

Every one of those schools I just mentioned is a "good" (enough) academic school and either brings a huge metro market (UCF, USF, Cincy, Houston, Memphis) or dominates its home state (West Virginia, UConn).

That is SEVEN large public schools (nine if Rutgers/Maryland get pushed out) that will get ACC invitations before Rice or Tulane ever gets a sniff.
 
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JayCane20 said:
Would have rather had them than expanding into California.

Also, guess it is private and/or academic power houses. Not both simultaneously. Rice was one of the last teams mentioned to me if they need numbers but can't pull all the schools they want. Tulane was another ahead of them. They also want Vandy from the SEC, Northwestern from the B1G, GT is in there, BC, and Virginia if they're not in expansion talks.
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Who's "they"? The ACC? Or Frenk?

That sounds like a nightmare.
 
Just curious, if the Big 10 gets antsy and adds USF before Miami, thereby getting into Florida, could Miami somehow find itself cut out?
 
DroCane said:
Who's "they"? The ACC? Or Frenk?

That sounds like a nightmare.
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The administrators that are pushing for this kind of conference. I think it's being driven by someone at Duke. Either AD or president I'm not sure.

Just something I've heard the last few weeks.
 
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JayCane20 said:
The administrators that are pushing for this kind of conference. I think it's being driven by someone at Duke. Either AD or president I'm not sure.

Just something I've heard the last few weeks.
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Sure, but I don't think it's because Duke thinks it will make the ACC better, but rather to just to have a pivot once all the best football schools leave.

And he's in the vast minority. Currently. Could be a thing down the road after a batch of teams leave the ACC.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
Sure, but I don't think it's because Duke thinks it will make the ACC better, but rather to just to have a pivot once all the best football schools leave.

And he's in the vast minority. Currently. Could be a thing down the road after a batch of teams leave the ACC.
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It won't be the ACC, per say. This is after it dissolves, falters, breaks apart, ends, or whatever happens.

The bold is the plan. It's a group of the schools that are aware that they're being left out or contingency planning. It's something administrators at Duke have pondered for years apparently. Miami is included in talks as a contingency for themselves.

Miami desperately needs FSU and/or Clemson to pick the SEC or be picked by the SEC. If they both do, we might be out in 2025/2026 and part, maybe even all, will be paid for.

Of course Vanderbilt, Northwestern, etc. won't leave their conferences. But they're not going to be included when ESPN/FOX says they want the top 40 teams, 2 conferences, and the rest aren't being written into their rights and are kicked from the conference. That's where it's headed.
 
Is Notre Dame the ONLY “Brand” that can operate as an Independent? Miami was independent before the Big East and did well. I know it is a different time now but can other schools go the route of independence?
 
JayCane20 said:
Miami desperately needs FSU and/or Clemson to pick the SEC or be picked by the SEC. If they both do, we might be out in 2025/2026 and part, maybe even all, will be paid for.
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Seems like, collectively-speaking, this board has come to the realization FSU and Clemson are (and have been) far more tied together than we ever were with either — despite the much-touted DanRad connection and our once-epic (but still heated) rivalry with the holes.

When this thread was in its earlier days, we read a whole lot of confident chatter about UM's close "partnerships" with those two schools
 
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