I haven’t been following this as closely as many of you. What’s happening next year to make this more likely than not?
Too many schools are dissatisfied, and once the first team makes their move, it could/will avalanche from there. Then you add that FOX WANTs this **** to happen asap. ESPN/SEC don't look like they want anything to change in the South East, but once that first school leaves they'll be forced to respond. They can either let the Big10 steal 4 of the top 15 programs in CFB over the last 40 years (Miami, FSU, Clemson, ND... and VTech at 20) - who all get major ratings - or they can take action. The only thing keeping us here currently is the GOR. That is very likely to get challenged sooner than later. But the easier option is just dissolving the conference.
Dissolving Conference takes 8 votes.
100% voting in favor = FSU, Clemson, Miami.
>85% chance will vote in favor (because basically they are guaranteed to gain from it) = UNC and ND
Not going to vote for dissolution = Duke, Wake, Boston College.
The rest of the schools all range from automatic guaranteed yes votes if they have at least a partial P2 invite, to likely yes votes if they at least have B12 invite. only need 3 more votes since FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC, and ND will be on board.
- VTech - I'd say they are definitely going to get a P2 invite (could be either Big10 or SEC - I'd lean Big10). Not full share.
- UVA - I'd say they are likely going to get a P2 invite (could be either, but I'd say SEC much more likely). Again not full share.
- GTech - Could go either way whether they'll get P2 invite at partial share. I think Big10 is much more likely.
- Louisville - They could be a real sleeper at getting an SEC invite. They get surprisingly good ratings. At worst they are guaranteed a B12 invite - possibly the top B12 target.
- NCSt - They could also get SEC invite, but I'd say not very likely. Rumored to have been vocally against further expansion. Again I think at worst they are getting a B12 invite.
- Syracuse - No chance at B10 or SEC invite. Definitely can see them getting B12 invite. Good market and B12 looks to be going all in for Basketball.
Basically I'd say look for Big10 to expand to 24, B12 to expand to 20, and SEC to either 18 or 20. So that's those 3 conference adding 10+ ACC programs practically guaranteed.
