MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread(Its still personal)

[calinative umstudent]

Just call for a vote. And don't do so if you don't have the 8 votes.

What I’m thinking makes most sense is nobody leaves tomorrow. They can actually make the vote for dissolution conditional on receiving a majority support - and announce this (effectively announcing intent to leave). Doing this instead of announcing your intention to leave - which they have till next August to do for 2025 anyways - allows you to retain your other voting rights.

 

[Hold My Beer]

By invite in hand, I'm assuming Flugauer means a nod and a wink from Sankey.

Similar to what U-Dub and Oregon — and us I'd like to think — have had from the Big Ten for some time

 

[Yoyo82]

My prediction is nothing happens before tomorrow.

Then the next year the SEC, B1G, B12 and their media partners will be horse trading behind the scenes to pick the ACC apart and minimize their buyout/legal fees for the exiting teams.

B1G will end up with: Miami, UNC, UVA, and ND games
SEC will end up with: FSU and Clemson
B12 will end up with: Pitt, NC State, Louisville, and VT

GT could slip into one of the 3.

BC and WF and Syracuse end up like the remaining pac4 and need to find a new home.

 

[calinative umstudent]

Now that Big2 seats are becoming finite and teams are ejecting to take discounted rates to secure their spot, I’m very curious what fsu will do. Being hasty and setting arbitrary deadlines for yourself publicly weakens your bargaining power

I totally get why Miami has elected to move in silence

It is important to note Oregon/Washington aren’t as valuable as FSU/Clemson/Miami. They don’t get as good ratings. Haven’t been as successful in the last 40 years. And most importantly had $0 to pay towards a GOR.

We need to view this as net revenue between now and 2030 (and even 2036).

If we get out of ACC and GOR for free, at minimum just in ACC exit fee alone that is worth $20M/yr until 2030 (assuming we entered Big10 in 2025 and new deal would go in effect 2031.

Then if you even want to say the GOR is just another $100M (even though as of today it goes to 2036), that’s another $16M/yr till 2030.

So if we missed out on even $36M/yr from Big10 revenue distribution it would be effectively the same as buying out of ACC and a cheap GOR settlement. Any idea what losing out on $36M/yr puts us at? $39M/yr MINIMUM, which is exactly what we received in ACC last year. And Max we’d still be receiving an extra $25M/yr more than we were with ACC.

 

[Hold My Beer]

Eight votes doesn't seem like an insurmountable task for dissolution (if, indeed, that's all it takes):

B1G: UM, Notre Dame

SEC: FSU, Clemson, UNC, NC State, UVA, Va Tech, Duke, Georgia Tech

That's 10 "yays" right there (and yes there likely would be some SEC-B1G dogfights over at least a few of the schools)

 

[Yoyo82]

Eight votes doesn't seem like an insurmountable task for dissolution (if, indeed, that's all it takes):

B1G: UM, Notre Dame

SEC: FSU, Clemson, UNC, NC State, UVA, Va Tech, Duke, Georgia Tech

That's 10 "yays" right there (and yes there likely would be some SEC-B1G dogfights over at least a few of the schools)

The SEC is not taking 8 teams.. Duke and GT have no chance at the SEC.

I could see a FSU/Clemson as well as a pairing of either UNC/NC State or UVA/VT, but not both.

 

[Cane6]

It is important to note Oregon/Washington aren’t as valuable as FSU/Clemson/Miami. They don’t get as good ratings. Haven’t been as successful in the last 40 years. And most importantly had $0 to pay towards a GOR.

We need to view this as net revenue between now and 2030 (and even 2036).

If we get out of ACC and GOR for free, at minimum just in ACC exit fee alone that is worth $20M/yr until 2030 (assuming we entered Big10 in 2025 and new deal would go in effect 2031.

Then if you even want to say the GOR is just another $100M (even though as of today it goes to 2036), that’s another $16M/yr till 2030.

So if we missed out on even $36M/yr from Big10 revenue distribution it would be effectively the same as buying out of ACC and a cheap GOR settlement. Any idea what losing out on $36M/yr puts us at? $39M/yr MINIMUM, which is exactly what we received in ACC last year. And Max we’d still be receiving an extra $25M/yr more than we were with ACC.

Im aware of all that and generally agree with your calcs

I’m saying FSU being a crackhead with how they’re handling things hurts their leverage, and to some extent Miami’s

 

[Rickd]

Eight votes doesn't seem like an insurmountable task for dissolution (if, indeed, that's all it takes):

B1G: UM, Notre Dame

SEC: FSU, Clemson, UNC, NC State, UVA, Va Tech, Duke, Georgia Tech

That's 10 "yays" right there (and yes there likely would be some SEC-B1G dogfights over at least a few of the schools)

Are you playing your version of NCAA Madden? The SEC isn't going from 16 to 24. The MIGHT ADD TWO and the max would be 4 and most likely not deciding until next year ... and playing in 2025.

 

[calinative umstudent]

Im aware of all that and generally agree with your calcs

I’m saying FSU being a crackhead with how they’re handling things hurts their leverage, and to some extent Miami’s

I mean it shows their desperation. Don’t think this is gunna be clean regardless how FSU handled it or not.

 

[Rickd]

I mean it shows their desperation. Don’t think this is gunna be clean regardless how FSU handled it or not.

I don't take it as "desperation" but rather a united conviction from every facet of FSU administration. Very public denouncement of the ACC so that nobody at any time WHEN they get picked up by either the B10 or SEC can claim "tampering" or "they were enticed".

 

[Tony4Canes]

 

[wnycanesfan]

Yeah, I don’t buy that either. That was printed for a reason.

There are very few people who have that kind of money where they can just drop 120M to pay FSU's exit fee and pretty sure none of them attended or are fans of FSU football.

 

[wnycanesfan]

Also true.

Biggest risk on GOR challenge is losing. But we could start the process. I'm still a big fan of destroying the extension first.

Then take the vote whenever you have 8...since, as we have already explained to the braindead internet writers, you don't actually vote until you know you have the numbers.

Technically losing the GOR challenge is the biggest risk on both sides. The schools lose they are on the hook for the full thing but if ESPN loses they get nothing. Still feel the GOR ends up being negotiated down.

 

[thesentinel]

There are very few people who have that kind of money where they can just drop 120M to pay FSU's exit fee and pretty sure none of them attended or are fans of FSU football.

Depends on if its an outright donation or low/no interest loan. They have a billionaire war profiteer alum who could float it, but probably wouldnt unless it was paid back.

We should be doing the same thing. The mas family could easily finance our exit.

 

[Tad Footeball]

FSU right now:

 

[Rickd]

Technically losing the GOR challenge is the biggest risk on both sides. The schools lose they are on the hook for the full thing but if ESPN loses they get nothing. Still feel the GOR ends up being negotiated down.

Right now THE issue being reported earlier in the week was that the B10 media partners (mainly FOX) is negotiating the GOR buyback for FSU Clemson in some manner. Also rolling in some sort of assist with the exit fee. Those are the "details" that are apparently causing decisions to be made slowly. AND apparently the SEC / Espn are also discussing a potential deal. We will see what happens ... when.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Well if the Big doesn't give the miracle offer to FSU / Clemson Tuesday AND FSU / Clemson are pushing for the SEC, that puts Miami and at least one other ACC program in "next up" position for the Big10. Waiting another year would also increase the probabilities of the B10 taking 4 and the SEC doing the same, which would give us the magic number 8 to dissolve, and the B12 grabs 4 as well, with Wake and BC going regional. Lot of moving parts ... but the most attractive one is the one that has NO ACC conference and no exit fee and a very cloudy GOR.

I ran this hypothesis by a friend who is a source on this info, and he gave it a thumbs up as very possible.

18 Big 10 teams next year, organized into 3 6-team pods for scheduling purposes (you play your entire pod each year, and then rotate other teams).

West is USC-UCLA-Washington-Oregon plus Nebraska and Minnesota. Split the remaining 12 teams into 2 pods. Big 10 Championship Game is two best pod-winners.

Six new teams a year or two later. If the Big 10 takes 6 ACC teams, they become a southeastern pod. If Stanford-Cal come in against only 4 ACC teams, then Nebraska-Minnesota move back into "legacy" Big 10 pods, and the Big 10 puts Maryland-Rutgers into the eastern pod. Big 10 Championship Game is two best pod-winners.

 

[hurricaneman]

AND apparently the SEC / Espn are also discussing a potential deal.

This is what I think all this will come down to. And I don't think the SEC will let them go.

 

[Midlo Cane Fan]

It's also at odds with this...

I can fully and freely acknowledge that F$U is the "most impatient" of the ACC teams. And, sure maybe they have a payday loan from JP Morgan to help fund things.

BUT...if you line up 7 other teams to join with you...THEN YOU GET OUT FOR FREE...

The fact remains...once you serve notice...you aren't going to vote on anything substantial any longer. Maybe you can participate on "where will we hold the Christmas party this year?". But you can no longer vote to block Stanford-Cal. And you definitely can't vote on whether to dissolve the ACC.

If you vote to kill the ACC...you don't have to give notice. You don't have to pay. You can probably ignore the GOR, though there may be some litigation.

But as I've said before, F$U is run by impatient amateurs. Like an internet dork who wants to be "FIRST" to respond to any thread, the dopes at F$U may be so eager to leave that they damage themselves. Which would be funny, if it didn't impact us too.

If Clemson and F$U give notice tomorrow and nobody else does, you can play out the numbers. You'd have 13 voting members.

---For expansion, you'd need 10 votes (3 no-votes). 4 "no" votes would block it. Remember what I told you about there being MORE than 4 no-votes already IF IF IF an actual vote would have been taken.

---For dissolution, you'd need 7 votes to dissolve the ACC. Let's say there are 4 Big 10 teams, plus ND. You'd need 2 more to be confident that going to the Big 12 would be equivalent, if not actually better over the long-haul. Seems very do-able.

---The exit fee would become due based upon a stated intent to leave. I'm fairly certain that USC and UCLA still owe money to the Pac 12 regardless of subsequent events and regardless of whether their actions were the first domino. Would be funny to take about $10M off of F$U. GOR probably dissipates even under a multi-step ACC collapse/dissolution, so F$U could get lucky there.

Get out of jail free card? someone needs to create an ACC monopoly game.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

There are very few people who have that kind of money where they can just drop 120M to pay FSU's exit fee and pretty sure none of them attended or are fans of FSU football.

Saudi sportswashing money.