I agree with what you're saying. I think you're definitely coming from a perspective of doing what's right by the player.
But I don't think a player returning and not helping or hurting his draft stock is acknowledged near as much as it actually happens.
Using Michael Jackson as an example, I think 2 things happened (that could happen to any player that returns):
1) People don't acknowledge or conveniently forget what they were saying about a player at the time he was making his decision to stay or go pro
- You're saying you think Jackson would've gone undrafted last year now....
- But at this time last year, you yourself called Jackson "the best CB in the country".
Here's the thread from last June where a bunch of people were saying Jackson could be a 1st Round Pick -
https://www.canesinsight.com/threads/michael-jackson-highlights.134021/
I'm not trying to call you out - I think it's just a natural human nature thing that happens to everyone. In any situation - When you have the benefit of hindsight, it's easy to forget or block out how you felt at the time.
Example - Here's Walter Football's grade for Michael Jackson returning last year:
Michael Jackson, CB, Miami
Height: 6-2. Weight: 195.
Projected 40 Time: 4.54.
Projected Round (2018): 2-4.
Possessing nice size and length, Michael Jackson performed well in his first year as a starter in Miami's opportunistic defense.
Jackson probably would've been a third-round pick had he declared, so there's a good chance he could improve his draft stock. Perhaps he'll be a solid second-round prospect unless he regresses.
Grade for returning: B+
The key in that write up is
"unless he regresses". Which leads to the 2nd point
2) People generally act like a player returning and improving will always be the outcome. They generally won't acknowledge any negative scenarios - like getting hurt, or just being the same player, or regressing.
I didn't feel like Jackson's play was particularly worse as a Senior, but there's no question it was statistically worse.
Junior Year - 2nd Team All-ACC, 4 INT's, Passer Rating Against - 37.3, PFF Grade - 80.5
Senior Year - Hon. Mention All-ACC, 0 INT's, Passer Rating Against - 79.0, PFF Grade - 69.7
I don't think people are being honest if they think last year didn't at least somewhat hurt his draft stock.
You can talk yourself into Jackson not getting any worse, but he definitely didn't get better. And people act like a player getting better their Senior year will 100% be the outcome, when it's just one possible outcome. Hurting your stock your Senior year is another possible outcome that no one wants to think about.