Combating The Early Exodus of Draft Eligible Players

[rok]

Stopped at Jeff Thomas coming off the bench lol


Well done sir, you've given an otherwise boring off-season day a bit of entertainment.

What do you guys think of redshirting Shaq and Pickney so we have them next year with a more experienced QB and OL?

Shaq and Pinckney? No.

McCloud? Hmmm maybe.

 

[Notsince1985]

I couldn't possibly imagine a worse thread.

Did you just dare someone to try?

 

[BoxingRobes]

lol it don't matter man kids want to get paid now hence kids sitting out bowl games.... and most of the time you can come back and get your degree if it doesn't work out anyways.

How many Clemson kids came back this year?
Yeah...they likely got a stack to come back, but they also had some unfinished business as well. And look what happened...they settled that business and their stock was not at all damaged...if not, it improved. They had a reason to come back.

Miami doesn't offer any such thing yet. Can't offer them a livable wage. Can't offer them some competitive reason to come back. Can't offer them the opportunity to tangibly raise their stock. It is what it is. If we gave them some reasons to stay, maybe they'd stay.

I don't like working for free or without purpose and you don't either.

 

[pyhooya]

We had one of the worst offenses in NCAAF last season and you want to start a true freshman over Jeff Thomas

I stopped reading after that.

You read that far down?

 

[simplycanes]

Threads like this are why I'm a member of the @rokulika fan club. Looking forward to an offseason of #HotTakes

 

[BoxingRobes]

Also, perhaps something we as a fanbase can do to help curb the early exodus...perhaps stop puffing these players up before they've earned it.

 

[WPB Cane]

Sound like something the KGB would do if they had a team.

 

[chilltill]

How many Clemson kids came back this year?
Yeah...they likely got a stack to come back, but they also had some unfinished business as well. And look what happened...they settled that business and their stock was not at all damaged...if not, it improved. They had a reason to come back.

Miami doesn't offer any such thing yet. Can't offer them a livable wage. Can't offer them some competitive reason to come back. Can't offer them the opportunity to tangibly raise their stock. It is what it is. If we gave them some reasons to stay, maybe they'd stay.

I don't like working for free or without purpose and you don't either.

I agree with you 100% lol... I’m coming back if we got a chance for the natty but Clemson builds different than bama them boys at bama don’t care if they lose or win the ship if they 1-2 rounds they gone. Richt wasn’t a coach I’d come back for Diaz.... the story is still unfolding.

 

[bshaw28]

I'm not so sure JT4 is our best WR. Most explosive player? Probably. But Osborn came here to fluck and Thomas is a month removed from knee surgery. Don't be surprised when Osborn, Pope, Payton are all playing as much as Thomas early on. Jordan and Mallory will cut into Thomas's english muffins and his catch total. Thomas should absolutely be featured in our offense but might have more use as a jack of all trades who lines up all over the field. Even under Richt he once lined up as a RB and caught a swing pass.


We have a shot at something special in 2020 if we can avoid our players leaving school early to get drafted in the 5th or 6th round.

Jaquan Johnson and Michael Jackson came back for their Senior years.

Michael Jackson ended up a 5th round pick
Jaquan ended up a 6th round pick

So what's the difference between leaving after your Junior year to become a late round pick, and staying for your Senior year to be a late round pick?

 

[caneaddict]

its a good thought, but yet another symptom of our **** depth and overall recruiting the last 10 years

 

[JgDaCane]

I have an idea. Recruit so good that the backup isn’t a dropoff.

 

[6ix Natty's]

its a good thought, but yet another symptom of our **** depth and overall recruiting the last 10 years

But you also have to keep in mind that we had a reduction of scholarships after being on probation. That's going to hurt your depth and it actually takes time to rebound to get to the point to where you have quality depth. Just look at USC, they still haven't fully recovered from their probation as well.

Not to mention losing guys to career ending injuries like Jamie Gordinier, Malek, Ahmmon and guys getting booted like Juwon Young, Sam Bruce, Mullins etc. affects your depth

We we've been doing a lot better the past 2 to 3 years now. We just need to continue to build on it.

 

[apfenny3]

Jaquan Johnson and Michael Jackson came back for their Senior years.

Michael Jackson ended up a 5th round pick
Jaquan ended up a 6th round pick

So what's the difference between leaving after your Junior year to become a late round pick, and staying for your Senior year to be a late round pick?

I definitely get your rational, I’d counter it with this. I think Jackson probably would’ve gone undrafted last season. And I’m willing to be neither player “got worse” after playing here another year. Statistically speaking neither will see a second contract, as the average nfl career is about 3 years now, so the counter argument of “getting to the 2nd contract faster” is moot in my opinion. The most important thing a player can do is 1.ensure they get a 1st contract and 2. Best position themselves to play out that contract. I believe with another year of competition in college and being a better player upon entering the league, they’re in a much better spot even if they were to go in a similar round.

 

[TemplarCane]

I definitely get your rational, I’d counter it with this. I think Jackson probably would’ve gone undrafted last season. And I’m willing to be neither player “got worse” after playing here another year. Statistically speaking neither will see a second contract, as the average nfl career is about 3 years now, so the counter argument of “getting to the 2nd contract faster” is moot in my opinion. The most important thing a player can do is 1.ensure they get a 1st contract and 2. Best position themselves to play out that contract. I believe with another year of competition in college and being a better player upon entering the league, they’re in a much better spot even if they were to go in a similar round.

Not to mention another year in college is another year working towards their degree. For their post-football life.

 

[bshaw28]

I definitely get your rational, I’d counter it with this. I think Jackson probably would’ve gone undrafted last season. And I’m willing to be neither player “got worse” after playing here another year. Statistically speaking neither will see a second contract, as the average nfl career is about 3 years now, so the counter argument of “getting to the 2nd contract faster” is moot in my opinion. The most important thing a player can do is 1.ensure they get a 1st contract and 2. Best position themselves to play out that contract. I believe with another year of competition in college and being a better player upon entering the league, they’re in a much better spot even if they were to go in a similar round.

I agree with what you're saying. I think you're definitely coming from a perspective of doing what's right by the player.

But I don't think a player returning and not helping or hurting his draft stock is acknowledged near as much as it actually happens.

Using Michael Jackson as an example, I think 2 things happened (that could happen to any player that returns):

1) People don't acknowledge or conveniently forget what they were saying about a player at the time he was making his decision to stay or go pro

- You're saying you think Jackson would've gone undrafted last year now....
- But at this time last year, you yourself called Jackson "the best CB in the country".

Here's the thread from last June where a bunch of people were saying Jackson could be a 1st Round Pick - https://www.canesinsight.com/threads/michael-jackson-highlights.134021/


I'm not trying to call you out - I think it's just a natural human nature thing that happens to everyone. In any situation - When you have the benefit of hindsight, it's easy to forget or block out how you felt at the time.

Example - Here's Walter Football's grade for Michael Jackson returning last year:

Michael Jackson, CB, Miami
Height: 6-2. Weight: 195.
Projected 40 Time: 4.54.
Projected Round (2018): 2-4.
Possessing nice size and length, Michael Jackson performed well in his first year as a starter in Miami's opportunistic defense. Jackson probably would've been a third-round pick had he declared, so there's a good chance he could improve his draft stock. Perhaps he'll be a solid second-round prospect unless he regresses.

Grade for returning: B+

The key in that write up is "unless he regresses". Which leads to the 2nd point


2) People generally act like a player returning and improving will always be the outcome. They generally won't acknowledge any negative scenarios - like getting hurt, or just being the same player, or regressing.

I didn't feel like Jackson's play was particularly worse as a Senior, but there's no question it was statistically worse.

Junior Year - 2nd Team All-ACC, 4 INT's, Passer Rating Against - 37.3, PFF Grade - 80.5
Senior Year - Hon. Mention All-ACC, 0 INT's, Passer Rating Against - 79.0, PFF Grade - 69.7

I don't think people are being honest if they think last year didn't at least somewhat hurt his draft stock.

You can talk yourself into Jackson not getting any worse, but he definitely didn't get better. And people act like a player getting better their Senior year will 100% be the outcome, when it's just one possible outcome. Hurting your stock your Senior year is another possible outcome that no one wants to think about.

 

[apfenny3]

I agree with what you're saying. I think you're definitely coming from a perspective of doing what's right by the player.

But I don't think a player returning and not helping or hurting his draft stock is acknowledged near as much as it actually happens.

Using Michael Jackson as an example, I think 2 things happened (that could happen to any player that returns):

1) People don't acknowledge or conveniently forget what they were saying about a player at the time he was making his decision to stay or go pro

- You're saying you think Jackson would've gone undrafted last year now....
- But at this time last year, you yourself called Jackson "the best CB in the country".

Here's the thread from last June where a bunch of people were saying Jackson could be a 1st Round Pick - https://www.canesinsight.com/threads/michael-jackson-highlights.134021/


I'm not trying to call you out - I think it's just a natural human nature thing that happens to everyone. In any situation - When you have the benefit of hindsight, it's easy to forget or block out how you felt at the time.

Example - Here's Walter Football's grade for Michael Jackson returning last year:

Michael Jackson, CB, Miami
Height: 6-2. Weight: 195.
Projected 40 Time: 4.54.
Projected Round (2018): 2-4.
Possessing nice size and length, Michael Jackson performed well in his first year as a starter in Miami's opportunistic defense. Jackson probably would've been a third-round pick had he declared, so there's a good chance he could improve his draft stock. Perhaps he'll be a solid second-round prospect unless he regresses.

Grade for returning: B+

The key in that write up is "unless he regresses". Which leads to the 2nd point


2) People generally act like a player returning and improving will always be the outcome. They generally won't acknowledge any negative scenarios - like getting hurt, or just being the same player, or regressing.

I didn't feel like Jackson's play was particularly worse as a Senior, but there's no question it was statistically worse.

Junior Year - 2nd Team All-ACC, 4 INT's, Passer Rating Against - 37.3, PFF Grade - 80.5
Senior Year - Hon. Mention All-ACC, 0 INT's, Passer Rating Against - 79.0, PFF Grade - 69.7

I don't think people are being honest if they think last year didn't at least somewhat hurt his draft stock.

You can talk yourself into Jackson not getting any worse, but he definitely didn't get better. And people act like a player getting better their Senior year will 100% be the outcome, when it's just one possible outcome. Hurting your stock your Senior year is another possible outcome that no one wants to think about.

I believed he was the best in the country going into his senior season and would've gone higher, but I didn't think he would've had he declared early. I agree players do regress and injury is a risk but I think the odds of either of those scenarios are small. There's no perfect solution so I err on the side of caution and think its generally less risk to return vs leave prematurely.

 

[Tad Footeball]

I'd just ban Pete and UFA Management from campus.

 

[gruntking]

Well when TNM is in full gear, returning senior players will be extinct.

 

[bshaw28]

I believed he was the best in the country going into his senior season and would've gone higher, but I didn't think he would've had he declared early. I agree players do regress and injury is a risk but I think the odds of either of those scenarios are small. There's no perfect solution so I err on the side of caution and think its generally less risk to return vs leave prematurely.

I think injury or regression happens about as often as significant improvement. I think what happens a large majority of the time is players are basically the same as a Senior as they were as a Junior. Their draft stock remains about the same.

If Michael Jackson left as a Junior and was a 5th round pick, there would be a 5 page thread about what a HUGE mistake he made. But he comes back his Senior Year, and ends up a 5th round pick anyways. But almost no one is going to say "you know what, he might have been better off just leaving as a Junior". That's why I don't think RJ McIntosh or Joe Jackson necessarily made a bad choice - even though they get blasted for leaving early.

Totally agree there is no perfect solution. The draft is so hard to predict.

Even right before the draft unpredictable things happen - like Chad Thomas going much higher than higher in the 3rd round, or Gerald Willis going undrafted when most thought he'd be a 2nd-3rd round pick. So deciding to turn pro or not 4 months ahead of the draft can be a bit of a crapshoot.

You would know better than me - but I would think injuries to players like Mark Walton, Ahmon Richards, Chris Herndon, etc. affect players thoughts about how real the possibility of injury is when deciding to turn pro.

You make a good point that a player is probably better prepared for the NFL by being more mature physically and mentally by playing their Senior year.

I'm just more of a "strike while the iron is hot" type person. If a player is a hot name coming off a big year (like Michel Jackson after his Junior year), or if they've shown enough where teams can see who they are as a player (like Travis Homer, or Joe Jackson) - they should probably just go pro IMO. But it's a really hard choice to make.

 

[mirvin88]

Y'all getting rok'd in this thread