There are about 15 other successful CFB HCs you could compare our situation to. Mario inherited a 7-5 team, much like the 6-6 team Saban inherited. He's brought in one partial class, and we've been picked to win the coastal because we always happen to beat the one team that should win it this year (Pitt).
It's not an excuse to point out that literally every other successful coach in CFB right now had a rough first year. The only one-year miracle worker in the game, while inheriting a terrible program, is Urban. Just look at the records of other successful CFB coaches in year 1, Saban excluded:
- Dabo Swinney: 4-3 (19-15 going into season #3)
- Dave Aranda: 3-7
- Sam Pittman: 3-7
- Matt Campbell: 3-9
- Lane Kiffin: 5-5
- Josh Heupel: 7-6
- Luke Fickell: 4-8
- Brian Kelly: 8-5
- Kirby Smart: 8-5
- James Franklin: 7-6 (14-12 going into season #3)
- P.J. Fleck: 5-7
- Mel Tucker: 2-5
- Kyle Whittingham: 7-5
- *Bonus* - Pete Carrol: 6-6
Will Mario work out here? TBD, but I'm hopeful. Overall though, there's a clear trend of solid HCs having issues in Year 1. We can't determine our trajectory in game 4 of this new regime.