OK, so I looked at the ACC standings since we went to divisional play.
Surprisingly, there have only been a couple of times when a team has BOTH lost 2 or more ACC games AND finished in some sort of a tie for 1st in the division. Most of the time, a divisional winner goes undefeated in conference play or only loses 1 game. OR ELSE a school wins their division outright, even with 2 or more losses.
In 2005, F$U and BC both finished 5-3 in the ACC.
In 2008, not only did F$U and BC both finish 5-3, but VaTech and GaTech went 5-3 on the Coastal side of things.
And in 2012, we had the infamous 3-way tie where UM, UNC, and GaTech all went 5-3, and both UNC and UM pulled out of the post-season due to NCAA investigations.
So I have a hard time seeing us lose 3 ACC games AND winning the Coastal, and I still think it's unlikely that we lose 2 ACC games AND win the Coastal.