Are “we” overconfident?

[L A M P]

@L A M P...we can agree to disagree! We're both still canes fans and family have a great day!!

Facts. Same to you! Go Canes

Spoiler

Fwiw I'm pro-Dawson being our OC... It's just more of the entire package he brings ( morale, good dude, continuity, decent OC, QB development, etc) than his actual play calling. I'd grade him at B- on that. JMO

 

[L A M P]

The Dawson stuff is honestly amazing at this point. Theres literally no changing minds so I just read it in awe. Im sure the Indiana DC was just trying to kiss up to Dawson when he said he was the toughest OC he faced last year

I read this in awe. Lol. To each their own.

Good tidbit on Indiana DC. Interesting. Could be attributed to a lot of things. Maybe my take is just flat out wrong. Maybe he's just being complimentary. Nobody knows.

 

[ScorpionKane1]

Facts. Same to you! Go Canes

Spoiler

Fwiw I'm pro-Dawson being our OC... It's just more of the entire package he brings ( morale, good dude, continuity, decent OC, QB development, etc) than his actual play calling. I'd grade him at B- on that. JMO

Oh! Don't get it twisted! I'm still scratching my head at his lack of QB development! But, if mario likes it I love it!

 

[JHallCanes]

I read this in awe. Lol. To each their own.

Good tidbit on Indiana DC. Interesting. Could be attributed to a lot of things. Maybe my take is just flat out wrong. Maybe he's just being complimentary. Nobody knows.

Yeah that’s why I said I just read it

I don’t have strong opinions about it just find it entertaining the mental gymnastics people go through with him on both sides for years now

Offense is gonna be really good this year that’s all I know

 

[SFbayCane]

My issue is dawson…

I'm literally on both sides of the Dawson issue.

On one hand, as much as I loved "The Pirate," I'm always skeptical of the guys from the Mike Leach coaching tree. Their Achilles' heel is that they're always the smarted guy in the room. They out-think and over-think play-calling waaaaay too often. Dawson is a perfect example of that mindset.

With that said, Dawson is without a doubt, the best play caller we've had at UM in many years. We could do way worse than him. And I do believe there is something to be said for the consistency of having him being here for a handful of years now. We are lucky to have him at this point. And I hope he stays around for another 2-3 years.

 

[Canes2026Champs]

We have no reason not to be confident. We have one of the 5 teams in the country who can win the national championship.

We just have to go do it.

 

[SFbayCane]

They/we are? I tell people we have not won anything yet. But they continue.

I use this message board and the dozen or so Canes fans at my gym up here in Central Florida as my dataset.

My Canes gym buddies think the Natty is a foregone conclusion. Folks on this board are constantly forced to digest the most positive version of every player, every recruit, and every practice report. (One example is that the message board reporters with access will report on the interception but not who threw it). It leads to an overly optimistic view IMO.

This is why I say the fanbase as a whole is overconfident coming in this season.

 

[Flynell7]

I use this message board and the dozen or so Canes fans at my gym up here in Central Florida as my dataset.

My Canes gym buddies think the Natty is a foregone conclusion. Folks on this board are constantly forced to digest the most positive version of every player, every recruit, and every practice report. (One example is that the message board reporters with access will report on the interception but not who threw it). It leads to an overly optimistic view IMO.

This is why I say the fanbase as a whole is overconfident coming in this season.

Sounds like balance is needed from what I gathered. It’s almost like we had that around here until a certain individual departed. People called it mopery though

 

[JHallCanes]

I'm literally on both sides of the Dawson issue.

On one hand, as much as I loved "The Pirate," I'm always skeptical of the guys from the Mike Leach coaching tree. Their Achilles' heel is that they're always the smarted guy in the room. They out-think and over-think play-calling waaaaay too often. Dawson is a perfect example of that mindset.

With that said, Dawson is without a doubt, the best play caller we've had at UM in many years. We could do way worse than him. And I do believe there is something to be said for the consistency of having him being here for a handful of years now. We are lucky to have him at this point. And I hope he stays around for another 2-3 years.

The one time I was genuinely like WTF with Dawson was the A&M game

Felt like he was trying to shut people up by being too creative

And after the game he basically admitted it and turned around and called a great game against OSU imo

 

[Manfred_Cane]

It can be argued that the outgoing starters are being replaced by more talented players overall.

Mauigoa - replaced by 27 game starter McCoy
Bain - replaced by 5 star Blount
Mesidor - replaced by 5 star Wilson
Beck - replaced by projected 1st round pick Mensah
Bell - replaced by 5 star Okunlola
Thomas - replaced by freshman AA Fitzgerald
Scott - replaced by the malicious Thornton
Cooper - replaced by 5 star Alofaituli or 5 star Cantwell or King Congdon
Brockermeyer - replaced by 6th year Rodriguez who started bowl game at C in 2023
Bissainthe - replaced by 6th year Chase Smith
Marion - replaced by All-ACC Barkate
Daniels - replaced by Moore or Upshaw

I don't believe SJ was a 5*

 

[Shooter McGavin]

The one time I was genuinely like WTF with Dawson was the A&M game

Felt like he was trying to shut people up by being too creative

And after the game he basically admitted it and turned around and called a great game against OSU imo

He did the same **** in the Louisville game. Miami was putting together a good drive with some good play calls and then he got too ****** cute. That’s my only beef with him. Overthinking ****.

 

[404Usernamenotfound]

Yes. I believe the UM fanbase is way overconfident coming into this season.

Exactly what a dude from San Francisco would say

 

[JHallCanes]

He did the same **** in the Louisville game. Miami was putting together a good drive with some good play calls and then he got too ****** cute. That’s my only beef with him. Overthinking ****.

Some people dogging him for being too cute

Some dogging him for running it up the middle

Life of an OC I suppose. It’s always **** when it doesn’t work right?

I agree though sometimes just didn’t seem like he was reading the room, but the guy is a great offensive mind as well

I think Beck and lack of downfield threats hurt but this year we won’t have that issue

 

[Calinative]

Well historically Mario has blown games we shouldn’t lose even with big talent advantages, so that is always still possible.

I wouldn’t call it overconfident though, I’d say just have rightfully set high expectations for this season. It’s up to Mario to deliver them against the bad to just solid teams, and not lose one we have no business losing

Ultimately the tough games and playoff games, it’d probably be overconfident to just expect to make the National Championship or something. I think the focus needs to just be winning the ACC and hitting our peak right as the regular season ends. Also another thing to consider is unlike last yr if we are in ACC champ game, that’s an extra game and another week of needing to be at peak play - certainly tougher.

 

[cowboycane]

If it's the piece I read this morning it was an article by Bill Connelly (who actually rules) on ESPN talking about how he ran 1 million simulations (literally) of the season and then highlighted some of the weirdest ones...including one of the million scenarios where we went 6-3 and Duke won the ACC. He also made the point that any predictions are dumb and meaningless and studying odds most of the time doesn't teach you anything you didn't already know.

2026 college football simulations: CFP, conference title odds

Using SP+ projections, we ran 1 million simulations of the 2026 season, so we found something for everyone.

www.espn.com

In the larger analysis at the top he also said we have the 7th best odds to win the natty in his model (that's a bit low to me but right in line with expectations nationally) and we, along with Ohio State and Texas Tech, have the best odds of any team to win their conference.

All that to say...sit a million monkeys at a million typewriters and eventually one of them will write Hamlet.

 

[skyman]

Some people dogging him for being too cute

Some dogging him for running it up the middle

Life of an OC I suppose. It’s always **** when it doesn’t work right?

I agree though sometimes just didn’t seem like he was reading the room, but the guy is a great offensive mind as well

I think Beck and lack of downfield threats hurt but this year we won’t have that issue

I forgot who said it but EVERY fan base complains about OCs.. EVERY. SINGLE. ONE.

We might as well bring Gattis or Dan Enos back, since anything good that happens is just the QB calling his own shot like Ward.

The mental gymnastics are crazy to knock the guy, you would think he never did anything good here..

 

[Shooter McGavin]

Some people dogging him for being too cute

Some dogging him for running it up the middle

Life of an OC I suppose. It’s always **** when it doesn’t work right?

I agree though sometimes just didn’t seem like he was reading the room, but the guy is a great offensive mind as well

I think Beck and lack of downfield threats hurt but this year we won’t have that issue

Agreed. He’s been Miami’s best OC since probably Jedd. Lashlee had no run concepts. It was basically all or nothing with him.

 

[Canes2026Champs]

If it's the piece I read this morning it was an article by Bill Connelly (who actually rules) on ESPN talking about how he ran 1 million simulations (literally) of the season and then highlighted some of the weirdest ones...including one of the million scenarios where we went 6-3 and Duke won the ACC. He also made the point that any predictions are dumb and meaningless and studying odds most of the time doesn't teach you anything you didn't already know.

2026 college football simulations: CFP, conference title odds

Using SP+ projections, we ran 1 million simulations of the 2026 season, so we found something for everyone.

www.espn.com

In the larger analysis at the top he also said we have the 7th best odds to win the natty in his model (that's a bit low to me but right in line with expectations nationally) and we, along with Ohio State and Texas Tech, have the best odds of any team to win their conference.

All that to say...sit a million monkeys at a million typewriters and eventually one of them will write Hamlet.

Either that.. or a **** throwing contest ensues.

Which is essentially the same thing that happens in a lot of these threads.

 

[jrock2332]

We "shouldn't" have lost to Louisville or SMU, but we did.

We "shouldn't" have lost to GT or Syracuse, but we did.

This is the next iteration of Mario as a Head Coach and Miami as a program. Win the vast, vast majority of the games you are supposed to win.

Nick Saban was 189-9 in his career as a double-digit favorite. So no, nobody is 100%. But you gotta win over 95% of those games. Mario has certainly not done that in his career to this point. It's the next phase of him and this program under him. Take care of business when business is supposed to be taken care of.

No, we're not losing on Friday. No, we're not losing 3 ACC games. Get all the way the **** outta my face with that nonsense. However, it's unacceptable to lose an ACC game this year outside of Clemson. Period. We will be a double-digit favorite in every single ACC game this season, except Clemson. I obviously expect to beat them (we will likely be about a TD favorite), but I don't think it's some long-term indictment if the ball bounces the other way and we lose. But 8-1 is the ABSOLUTE floor in the ACC. The literal bottom of the floor, underneath the foundation. Under no circumstances (Mensah injury aside) is it even remotely acceptable to lose 2 ACC games again.

I don't think we will.

This team is light years more talented than those teams. I think our fan base is forgetting that a majority of our players just played in a national championship. They are only gonna get better. If our online gels quick and we don't have dumb penalties we are curbstomping a majority of these teams we face.

 

[brcane1]

The Dawson stuff is honestly amazing at this point. Theres literally no changing minds so I just read it in awe.

Im sure the Indiana DC was just trying to kiss up to Dawson when he said he was the toughest OC he faced last year

I don't think he was fluffing Dawson's ***, fwiw.

The only issue I had with Dawson was that he didn't intentionally break tendencies at extreme degree / frequency from the opening kick. He could have generated more breakdowns like Fletcher's run in the 2nd and the overall better performance had he done so.

I was not the only one talking in matter of fact fashion before that game about Indiana's use of Cuban's AI film study startup and their commitment to using it to exploit opportunities, even if I likely had watched more of Cignetti's Indiana teams.

The only teams that gave Indiana trouble were so tough that they could push right through that, and Miami did better than any of those teams.