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Are “we” overconfident?

SFbayCane said:
I'm literally on both sides of the Dawson issue.

On one hand, as much as I loved "The Pirate," I'm always skeptical of the guys from the Mike Leach coaching tree. Their Achilles' heel is that they're always the smarted guy in the room. They out-think and over-think play-calling waaaaay too often. Dawson is a perfect example of that mindset.

With that said, Dawson is without a doubt, the best play caller we've had at UM in many years. We could do way worse than him. And I do believe there is something to be said for the consistency of having him being here for a handful of years now. We are lucky to have him at this point. And I hope he stays around for another 2-3 years.
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Dawson seems like by far the most humble of the Leach disciples. which is why he's been so effective as a Mario whisperer.
 
JHallCanes said:
The one time I was genuinely like WTF with Dawson was the A&M game

Felt like he was trying to shut people up by being too creative

And after the game he basically admitted it and turned around and called a great game against OSU imo
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@PhenomCane made a great point about that. Dawson's gimmicky stuff works well against overmatched ACC defenses who would have to over-stack the box to match our O line. When we got to the playoff, the teams we faced played our offense with their base defense. The gimmicky Mali-Cat stuff fell flat. When Dawson went back to our traditional offense for Ohio State and Ole Miss, we saw the success.
 
brcane1 said:
I don't think he was fluffing Dawson's ***, fwiw.

The only issue I had with Dawson was that he didn't intentionally break tendencies at extreme degree / frequency from the opening kick. He could have generated more breakdowns like Fletcher's run in the 2nd and the overall better performance had he done so.

I was not the only one talking in matter of fact fashion before that game about Indiana's use of Cuban's AI film study startup and their commitment to using it to exploit opportunities, even if I likely had watched more of Cignetti's Indiana teams.

The only teams that gave Indiana trouble were so tough that they could push right through that, and Miami did better than any of those teams.
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Yeah well said. Dawson clearly knows his stuff but sometimes it just felt off or disjointed. No sure how else to say it that you didn’t already cover

Like OSU box score was 300 yards and 4.6 yards per play. That’s not pretty. But they were a historic defense and in the game they suffocated us into a phone booth and he found some really creative quick strike plays (Fletcher TD…Bauman had a couple IIRC). We played really clean as a team that day though. Zero penalties and everyone was on their A game
 
I don't know which part of that is dumber; Us losing 3 games in the ACC, Us losing 3 games in the ACC and somehow making it to the ACCCG, or Duke winning the ACC after losing their two best players. Sounds like a clickbait article with no cohesive analysis.
 
QuattroCane said:
I just got through reading a piece about a forecast for the season, and it has us going six and three in the ACC and losing to Duke in the championship. I’ve also read quite a few quips where they think Stanford can upset Miami.
So I got to thinking, are we overconfident? What am I missing? This seems like our strongest team in, dare I say, decades.

//man, the season needs to start!
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QuattroCane said:
I just got through reading a piece about a forecast for the season, and it has us going six and three in the ACC and losing to Duke in the championship. I’ve also read quite a few quips where they think Stanford can upset Miami.
So I got to thinking, are we overconfident? What am I missing? This seems like our strongest team in, dare I say, decades.

//man, the season needs to start!
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Respectfully of course….

You’re joking right?
 
I’m convinced a lot of you don’t read anything beyond this site.
I also just read we have the fourth highest “meltdown rate” this weekend.
jps2344 said:
Respectfully of course….

You’re joking right?
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i’m just telling you what I read, the amount of people that are getting butt hurt over this is pretty comical.
 
QuattroCane said:
I’m convinced a lot of you don’t read anything beyond this site.
I also just read we have the fourth highest “meltdown rate” this weekend.

i’m just telling you what I read, the amount of people that are getting butt hurt over this is pretty comical.
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We’re genuinely curious where you’re reading this stuff.
 
jrock2332 said:
OrangeBowlMagic said:
We "shouldn't" have lost to Louisville or SMU, but we did.

We "shouldn't" have lost to GT or Syracuse, but we did.

This is the next iteration of Mario as a Head Coach and Miami as a program. Win the vast, vast majority of the games you are supposed to win.

Nick Saban was 189-9 in his career as a double-digit favorite. So no, nobody is 100%. But you gotta win over 95% of those games. Mario has certainly not done that in his career to this point. It's the next phase of him and this program under him. Take care of business when business is supposed to be taken care of.

No, we're not losing on Friday. No, we're not losing 3 ACC games. Get all the way the **** outta my face with that nonsense. However, it's unacceptable to lose an ACC game this year outside of Clemson. Period. We will be a double-digit favorite in every single ACC game this season, except Clemson. I obviously expect to beat them (we will likely be about a TD favorite), but I don't think it's some long-term indictment if the ball bounces the other way and we lose. But 8-1 is the ABSOLUTE floor in the ACC. The literal bottom of the floor, underneath the foundation. Under no circumstances (Mensah injury aside) is it even remotely acceptable to lose 2 ACC games again.

I don't think we will.
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This team is light years more talented than those teams. I think our fan base is forgetting that a majority of our players just played in a national championship. They are only gonna get better. If our online gels quick and we don't have dumb penalties we are curbstomping a majority of these teams we face.
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I think last year, the coaching staff as a whole learned how to win. The 2 losses that never should have happened, especially the SMU loss, did something for them. They finally realized they have the roster that’s capable of playing to win rather than playing not to lose.
 
jrock2332 said:
This team is light years more talented than those teams. I think our fan base is forgetting that a majority of our players just played in a national championship. They are only gonna get better. If our online gels quick and we don't have dumb penalties we are curbstomping a majority of these teams we face.
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I don't disagree, but that's not my point. Was Miami's 2024 team not light years more talented than Georgia Tech? We were undefeated and they had lost 4 of their last 7 games, with the wins being VMI, Duke, and UNC. They scored 6 points against VT the week before they played us. And they beat us.

This is my point. Don't lose to teams that you're light years more talented than. I can't remember what the spreads were in those games but I know we were at least a TD favorite I'm pretty sure in all 4 of the ACC games we've lost the last 2 years. That means we're way more talented, but we lost. Mario needs to exorcise those demons and smash all these ****** ACC teams, as you said. I think we will, I think this team is insanely loaded. But we still have to go do it.
 
Canes2026Champs said:
I think last year, the coaching staff as a whole learned how to win. The 2 losses that never should have happened, especially the SMU loss, did something for them. They finally realized they have the roster that’s capable of playing to win rather than playing not to lose.
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I hope you're right. I've been saying something similar all off-season. The "let it rip" **** was roundly laughed at on here. But it probably did have some effect.

Although to be fair, we came out looking like absolute *** against Syracuse the very next game after the SMU loss. So who knows. What I hope last season proved to Mario is you're able to lean on both your offense AND your defense together in the same game. In 2024, we played offense like we knew our defense was ***. And in 2025, we played offense like we knew our defense was elite. How bout do both this year? There's no rule that you can't beat teams by 40. Everyone talked about "style points" at the end of the year, and I can't remember if Mario ever actually acknowledged it, but he **** sure played like he was aware of it.

Beck threw a TD pass with 11 minutes to go in the game when it was 34-0 against NC State. We'd have never done that if we were undefeated, but we needed style points.

Beck threw a TD *ON 4TH DOWN WITH 20 SECONDS LEFT* against VT when we were up 27-17. Never, in a bazillion years, would Mario do that under normal circumstances.

Beck threw a TD with under a minute left to CJ Daniels at Pitt when the game was 31-7. Again, this is completely out of character for Mario. He's only doing this because we needed to impress voters, period.

So, maybe, just maybe, last year taught him to rack up "style points" all season. I have my doubts, but I'm hoping so. You have an elite offense AND and elite defense. They can help each other. You can win games with either unit, period. So go play like it. Go into every single game saying we are going to play this game like we need to score 40 to win, AND we need to shut the other team out to win. I promise, it'll be OK.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Canes2026Champs said:
I think last year, the coaching staff as a whole learned how to win. The 2 losses that never should have happened, especially the SMU loss, did something for them. They finally realized they have the roster that’s capable of playing to win rather than playing not to lose.
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I hope you're right. I've been saying something similar all off-season. The "let it rip" **** was roundly laughed at on here. But it probably did have some effect.

Although to be fair, we came out looking like absolute *** against Syracuse the very next game after the SMU loss. So who knows. What I hope last season proved to Mario is you're able to lean on both your offense AND your defense together in the same game. In 2024, we played offense like we knew our defense was ***. And in 2025, we played offense like we knew our defense was elite. How bout do both this year? There's no rule that you can't beat teams by 40. Everyone talked about "style points" at the end of the year, and I can't remember if Mario ever actually acknowledged it, but he **** sure played like he was aware of it.

Beck threw a TD pass with 11 minutes to go in the game when it was 34-0 against NC State. We'd have never done that if we were undefeated, but we needed style points.

Beck threw a TD *ON 4TH DOWN WITH 20 SECONDS LEFT* against VT when we were up 27-17. Never, in a bazillion years, would Mario do that under normal circumstances.

Beck threw a TD with under a minute left to CJ Daniels at Pitt when the game was 31-7. Again, this is completely out of character for Mario. He's only doing this because we needed to impress voters, period.

So, maybe, just maybe, last year taught him to rack up "style points" all season. I have my doubts, but I'm hoping so. You have an elite offense AND and elite defense. They can help each other. You can win games with either unit, period. So go play like it. Go into every single game saying we are going to play this game like we need to score 40 to win, AND we need to shut the other team out to win. I promise, it'll be OK.
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Exactly. This team is a balance of 24’ and 25’, and I still think our defense will be better in some ways than we were last year, particularly pass defense. Pass rush will still be elite, just in a different way. A lot more pressure from the inside, which actually could make the ceiling of this defense even higher than last year’s. Nothing throws a QB off more than inside pressure. There’s a reason why the Bengals traded the 10th pick for Dexter Lawrence. It’s because he’s one of the few DT’s in pro football that can literally wreck a game.

That being said, if we know the defense can hold, we should absolutely “let it rip” every game. Let the pass set up the run. Come out and try to build a first half lead and make teams abandon the run game and just drop back over and over. Any team that becomes one dimensional against us will get dusted because at some point, sacks and turnovers will happen when you’re continuously dropping back against this D-line and trying to fit pass after pass in tiny windows against this secondary. There’s no getting around it.
 
Yes, we are overconfident. Need to focus on every down, every play.
Rat Poison is real
Winning by one is not enough
Stay humble, do not read your own press…
HSBD 😎
 
Canes2026Champs said:
I think last year, the coaching staff as a whole learned how to win. The 2 losses that never should have happened, especially the SMU loss, did something for them. They finally realized they have the roster that’s capable of playing to win rather than playing not to lose.
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Unlike the recent past, we have too many players, on offense and defense, that can single handedly take over a game.
 
Honestly man, I look at this team top to bottom and there is no way Miami should lose to anyone regular season + the ACCCG. Mario is my dude, and he showed me and many others a lot last year. IMO the final test he needs to pass is smoking teams from start to finish. He does that, and he goes from grasshopper to master.
 
I am worried about LB. Both of our starting LBs have major health issues and unproven depth behind them.

Outside of that, this team is geared to win 10+ easily. Obviously any other major injuries to QB, WR, DT etc. changes that, but it’s football….
 
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