2) You mentioned the difference between Vegas and fan boys; that Vegas goes by hard facts, while fanboys go by emotions.
Here are a few examples of the fallacy of that statement:
Hard Facts: Winner of Super Bowl L was the Denver Broncos.
Vegas: The preseason favorites to win the SB were New England, Seattle, and Pittsburgh
Vegas: Playoff Favorite: Carolina Panthers.
I don't know if you're aware (which is scary) but Vegas sets their odds
before the season. So saying that the Denver Broncos winning is a 'fact' is comically dumb.
I'll repeat. Scary.
Let me chop and ***** my response you can understand...
The facts I mentioned were what they were, facts. I'm trying to help you understand that Vegas odds are based upon previous year's data, combined with scheduling; based upon that, they forecast or, excuse me, PRE-DETERMINE w/l totals, over/under lines, and teams that are favorite. Again, this is a forecast which is an estimation or solid guess.
Let me emphasize the word "Guess", b/c based upon FACTS that have transpired in several sporting events, their pre-determined forecast, or guess, as to who were favorite to win championships or their "smart money" bet on GSW to win the NBA championship were, indeed, incorrect.
What I'm highlighting to you is that Vegas, in respects to Miami, is appropriate. There have been nothing that Miami has done in the last several years to make them comfortable in projecting us to win over 7 games. Over the past decade, even with coaching changes, we've averaged 6 wins/yr...so why wouldn't they pre-determine our line to be around 6.5?
You're arguing what Vegas thinks, and I'm highlighting that Vegas has been wrong numerous times in many different prognostications...that's why it's called....wait for it... GAMBLING!