Alabama's dominance in context: Death of CFB

[CaneFan79]

Some quotes from an interesting article in the Athletic today ....

"Of the top 100 players in the 2021 class, 48 are headed to one of five programs: Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama and LSU. And there are still more commitments to be made. So nearly half of the most talented players in high school football will play at those five programs. This is the definition of talent gap and why everyone is so fatigued by the same teams competing for spots in the College Football Playoff every year."

"Miami is going to emerge as an ACC power if Manny Diaz can continue to land his share of the top players in his backyard. The Hurricanes signed two five-star prospects from South Florida in defensive tackle Leonard Taylor of Miami Palmetto and safety James Williams of Fort Lauderdale Florida. And Miami also landed Garcia — a Southern California native — to be its quarterback of the future. The Hurricanes currently have the No. 11 class, their best since finishing No. 8 in 2018."

"In the 2020 recruiting class, nine of the nation’s top 30 players played within the Pac-12’s geographic footprint (we’re including Nevada) but just three signed with Pac-12 schools — two at Oregon (linebackers Justin Flowe and Noah Sewell) and one at Washington (linebacker Sav’ell Smalls). That means roughly 30 percent of the truly elite in 2020 were from the West Coast, but only three are playing in the Pac-12. In 2021, nine of the top 50 players nationally are from the Pac-12 footprint, and that includes four-star quarterback Jake Garcia, who transferred from a high school in California to one in Georgia for his senior year. Foreman and five-star defensive lineman J.T. Tuimoloau of Sammamish (Wash.) High remain uncommitted. Of the seven who have committed, four are headed to Pac-12 schools — three to Oregon."

"Five of the top 10 programs in the rankings are from the SEC. It’s a nice reminder as to why the SEC is always at the forefront of the national title race. That conference, simply put, has the best players."

"After Alabama missed the Playoff last year and Nick Saban’s 2021 class ranked in the 50s at one point during the spring, you may have thought this was the beginning of the end for college football’s greatest dynasty. You would have been wrong. There is still some work to be done, but Alabama’s 2021 haul could end up being the best class in the modern era of recruiting. Here’s one stat that puts the Tide’s class into perspective: 13 of the 24 signees rank among the top 90 prospects in the nation in the 247Sports Composite. Alabama’s dominance on the field is a result of the impressive recruiting classes Saban signs on a consistent basis."

"It was a boring signing day for Ohio State, which may be former coach Urban Meyer’s biggest legacy for the Buckeyes. Boring is often good because the class is cemented early and there’s no scrambling. Alabama has all but locked up the recruiting crown in the 2021 cycle, but both the Crimson Tide (.9460) and Buckeyes (.9456) are on the verge of topping the previous record for the highest average player rating. Based on those numbers, the average prospect in these classes is a borderline top-100 player. You read that correctly."


PS: someone from here managed to mope their way into the comments.

"Joe O.

Miami’s problems over the last several decades aren’t so much related to recruiting as to coaching. Frittering away talent has been their calling card. Not sure Diaz is going to change that, but we’ll see"

Good post, especially this:

"Of the top 100 players in the 2021 class, 48 are headed to one of five programs: Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama and LSU. And there are still more commitments to be made. So nearly half of the most talented players in high school football will play at those five programs. This is the definition of talent gap and why everyone is so fatigued by the same teams competing for spots in the College Football Playoff every year."

So as the they say in the military, "victory goes to the bigger battalions." These programs have the two Ms on their side, Money and Momentum. We can talk about bag men all day and a solution probably can't be foundto that issue, but if every athletic department in FBS had roughly the same amount of $$$ in which they had to decide between spending it on coaches, consultants, dorms, facilities, nutrition, and other perks, you would then be closer to your goal of competitive balance. Articles like the Athletic piece skirt around the have and gave not funding issue; COVID 19's one silver lining is showing how precarious most schools athletic funding really is; the schools can't cook the books anymore or cover shortfalls with increased student fees.

The Have's? They love it as is...

Heck, OSUck has an Athletic DISTRICT on campus:

https://www.bizjournals.com/columbu...lacrosse-stadium-next-step-as-ohio-state.html

You don't think new recruits, 17 years old and realizing they will be the pampered princes on this campus, are not going to take this all in and sign up? Especially compared to other schools who put you in regular housing and have you eat at the student dining hall?

Once that Money is spent and you have success, you double down with more Money to give your program Momentum. This is what these programs do and what other programs like Miami and FSU fail at: You have to, as The Lincoln Lawyer said "refill the tank" on a continuous basis. None of these institutions are academic powerhouses; OSU for all its size and state $$$ can't break in the US News Top 50. But what they do get is plenty of $$$ to compete at the top level of athletics. Baring athletic department spending caps, the rich will get richer and their momentum will continue.

If there are no athletic department spending caps coming, Miami will have to:

A: Settle for being a somewhat competitive ACC team bound to be screwed by a conference leadership who favors Tobacco Road institutions

B: Go bold and attempt to get out of their granting of rights agreement because the ACC didn't do their due diligence in signing with ESPN for 20 years (ESPN turns around and signs the SEC to an exclusive deal after CBS deal expires in '24...How did the ACC not see that coming?) and then makes a Notre Dame-like deal with CBS while still a name school. Can't play any ACC teams anymore? Big deal, FSU will ask the ACC for permission using the same tactic as Florida vs. FSU, threatened state legislative action. Big 12 schools like VWU would love to renew old rivalries in the same time zone. PAC 12 schools wanting eastern exposure, independents like BYU, the aforementioned ND, and Army would jump at the chance to play Miami along with perennial G5 powers Boise State, Fresno State, and maybe even some in-state schools again. National exposure will have schools knocking on the door.

To stay the same course is to die, it's that simple folks.

 

[RightSaidFred]

If Miami actually gave a **** about football, we would pull top 5 classes year in and year out. If we had an actual stadium, top-tier facilities, and a top-tier coaching staff, who would ever choose to go to some redneck SEC town for college over Miami?

The problem is we have a first-time athletic director and a first-time head coach. We have guys like Patke and Rumph as position coaches. Kids see that and they see that they could go to Alabama and receive real coaching, and they go there.

Miami has no-one to blame but itself.

 

[CaneFan79]

If Miami actually gave a **** about football, we would pull top 5 classes year in and year out. If we had an actual stadium, top-tier facilities, and a top-tier coaching staff, who would ever choose to go to some redneck SEC town for college over Miami?

The problem is we have a first-time athletic director and a first-time head coach. We have guys like Patke and Rumph as position coaches. Kids see that and they see that they could go to Alabama and receive real coaching, and they go there.

Miami has no-one to blame but itself.

Or if the reverse happened and Clemson couldn't build Dabo's funhouse, 'Bama doesnt have its waterfall locker room, and OSU doesn't have its campus athletic DISTRICT? If given roughly the same resources, maybe superior strategy, careful resource allocation, and coaching decides who wins, i.e. even competition. That is what the NCAA is supposed to ensure. Don't worry the suit suck up personalities on ESPN will never broach this in talking to Mark Emmert.

 

[SevenNSeven]

If you wanna make a difference, hire a PI or take yourself down to Tuscaloosa and get the cheating on camera.

And then publish it where?

Sports journalism is just about dead. Ironically, Charles Robinson @ Yahoo released an expose on Bama's incongruities a few years after his sensationalist reporting on Shapiro came out... don't you remember?

Of course you don't. Because it was quickly swept under the rug by ESPN.

I really am clueless on if having the current super-team domination was some sort of master plan by ESPN...or if it was unintended consequences of their 'sports-ertainment' model combined with their pushing their investment in certain teams/conferences.

Regardless, we're here now.

 

[LuCane]

And then publish it where?

Sports journalism is just about dead. Ironically, Charles Robinson @ Yahoo released an expose on Bama's incongruities a few years after his sensationalist reporting on Shapiro came out... don't you remember?

Of course you don't. Because it was quickly swept under the rug by ESPN.

I really am clueless on if having the current super-team domination was some sort of master plan by ESPN...or if it was unintended consequences of their 'sports-ertainment' model combined with their pushing their investment in certain teams/conferences.

Regardless, we're here now.

That would be a really weird strategy. Think they just ****ed that one up. Superteams don't work as well for the college football target audience.

 

[SevenNSeven]

That would be a really weird strategy. Think they just ****ed that one up. Superteams don't work as well for the college football target audience.

Agree completely, yet it's impossible to ignore that college football has changed incredibly in just the last dozen years, and ESPN is behind many of the larger changes.

They may have struck out with their first attempts...like the Longhorn network, but their fingerprints were all over conference realignment...and the 'playoff' that eventually followed. The result? As opposed to the old system that could be portioned out piecemeal, all control over D-1 football's championship in one package.

One could make the argument that the current super-team system is bad for business, but I think it is more about control of the product than ratings, per se.

As opposed to the professional sports leagues, which essentially lease their product to broadcasters, ESPN basically is in a co-ownership position of college football. Heisman trophy. They own bowls. They release the playoff rankings. Etc, etc. It is ESPN that, behind the curtain, influences the status quo in the sport.

And it's hard to argue that they haven't sorted the sport into 'big tickets' and minor ones. Alabama and Clemson? Heavyweights. Miami...well, Miami is chum to get subscribers in south Florida to call their cable company and demand the ACC Network.

I don't believe that they purposely looked for this result, but...unintended consequences of a hand awkward on the controls...

 

[CaneFan79]

That would be a really weird strategy. Think they just ****ed that one up. Superteams don't work as well for the college football target audience.

ESPN cost control and return on SEC investment (which they just doubled down on picking CBS' SEC package). Clemson is great for this also, your coverage team can centralize (Herbstreit moving to Nashville had nothing to do with OSUck fans and everything to do with cost containment) in an area and keep expenses down. Speaking of Suckeyestreit, he is their most valuable commodity in CFB, so keeping him happy by promoting OSUck, even when they lost the prime B1G to Fox is important to them and helps keep him in the fold.

It also shows the ESPN suits Northeastern philosophy on College Football. As my NY born and bred father told me back in 70s (concerning college football) "It's where the Pro's come from." Simply put, they don't care what the team they play on, they want to feature the players and tie it to their NFL Draft coverage and beyond...Jets, Giants, Pats, etc.

Notice the PAC 12 and Big 12 looking in, even after Oklahoma has been part of the CFP...Foreshadowing.

 

[kyle_schick]

Its crazy how people still think we don't have a stadium, or that having an off campus stadium is a detriment.

Our stadium is literally a WORLD-tier stadium that they play the super bowl in. Its newly renovated and beautiful.

There is no room for it or the parking on campus. Even if if was on-campus, the school is full of liberal, artsy dorks, and law/med students who don't care about football and it would result in MAYBE 2 thousand more bodies in attendance.

Hire actual coaches, and field a respectable team and people will show up.

 

[TemplarCane]

The biggest change in CFB was the OU-UGA lawsuit that stripped the NCAA of it powers to regulate TV contracts. Remember when teams were only on national TV twice during the regular season? In June 1984, SCOTUS ruled the NCAA violated anti-trust laws and conferences and schools should be free to negotiate their own deals. Soon came deals with ABC, CBS, and ESPN.

And here we are.

 

[Boarcane]

Great stuff. So dam dramatic and some of you are misguided, but fun to read. Instead of crying myself to sleep, I’ll take solace in the fact that this university is in the heart of South Florida. Kids want to play in front of their families. Those same families don’t want to spend two days on travel, seven times a year. Mothers and fathers have lives and jobs. It’s also exhausting traveling all the time to watch your kid play. It’s expensive too. They don’t have only one child. We are almost there. Kids want to play in front of their friends and families. No one has what we have. One more class like the last two and it’s off to the races. Breath... soon we’ll be the most hated program again and the ncaa will look to destroy us. I worry more about that now, than I do returning to dominance. They’re both a when, not if’s. FSU being down the way they are, literally slammed our return forward by a **** ton. Pay attention to today and tomorrow, the past decade is just that.
QS

 

[CaneFan79]

Great stuff. So dam dramatic and some of you are misguided, but fun to read. Instead of crying myself to sleep, I’ll take solace in the fact that this university is in the heart of South Florida. Kids want to play in front of their families. Those same families don’t want to spend two days on travel, seven times a year. Mothers and fathers have lives and jobs. It’s also exhausting traveling all the time to watch your kid play. It’s expensive too. They don’t have only one child. We are almost there. Kids want to play in front of their friends and families. No one has what we have. One more class like the last two and it’s off to the races. Breath... soon we’ll be the most hated program again and the ncaa will look to destroy us. I worry more about that now, than I do returning to dominance. They’re both a when, not if’s. FSU being down the way they are, literally slammed our return forward by a **** ton. Pay attention to today and tomorrow, the past decade is just that.
QS

Crying? No, its called analyzing a problem and offering solutions. From 1983 - 2003, Miami had 14 seasons of 10 (or more) wins. From 2004 to 2020 Miami has had ONE ten win season. The game has changed in the 21st century and yet you offer up the same old platitudes and flawed logic we have been hearing for close to TWO DECADES now. Kids play in front of their families? Nope, kids, with the encouragement of their families are making "business decisions" that have them heading out to the big powers with the $$$ who will get them the exposure. The "heart of South Florida" is the recruiting ground of OSUck, Clemson and Alabama. I see how Patrick Surtain's Dad kept him in South Florida to watch him play.
It's always "Once we get a new coach" "Once we get another two good classes" "These kids want to restore the Miami pride"and every year we get uneven play, jobbed in two to three games ACC refs who work for Tobacco Road bosses and (as proven in peer reviewed MIT research) call against our interest to promote their own (i.e. getting their favored teams better records). If you can't see this, then your myopia is what is giving you solace, because it sure isn't you looking at facts and trends.

 

[Boarcane]

Crying? No, its called analyzing a problem and offering solutions. From 1983 - 2003, Miami had 14 seasons of 10 (or more) wins. From 2004 to 2020 Miami has had ONE ten win season. The game has changed in the 21st century and yet you offer up the same old platitudes and flawed logic we have been hearing for close to TWO DECADES now. Kids play in front of their families? Nope, kids, with the encouragement of their families are making "business decisions" that have them heading out to the big powers with the $$$ who will get them the exposure. The "heart of South Florida" is the recruiting ground of OSUck, Clemson and Alabama. I see how Patrick Surtain's Dad kept him in South Florida to watch him play.
It's always "Once we get a new coach" "Once we get another two good classes" "These kids want to restore the Miami pride"and every year we get uneven play, jobbed in two to three games ACC refs who work for Tobacco Road bosses and (as proven in peer reviewed MIT research) call against our interest to promote their own (i.e. getting their favored teams better records). If you can't see this, then your myopia is what is giving you solace, because it sure isn't you looking at facts and trends.

Lol how many kids do you know? You’re forgetting the **** show and sanctions that drove them away. Just watch and enjoy. It’s happening. I had one very special kid tell me Saturday. They need to win and show out for the nfl. If they can do it here, they’ll stay home. It’s really that simple. I’m sorry you’re believing the last fifteen years is the kids fault. It’s old people that ruined it for us.

 

[Boarcane]

Crying? No, its called analyzing a problem and offering solutions. From 1983 - 2003, Miami had 14 seasons of 10 (or more) wins. From 2004 to 2020 Miami has had ONE ten win season. The game has changed in the 21st century and yet you offer up the same old platitudes and flawed logic we have been hearing for close to TWO DECADES now. Kids play in front of their families? Nope, kids, with the encouragement of their families are making "business decisions" that have them heading out to the big powers with the $$$ who will get them the exposure. The "heart of South Florida" is the recruiting ground of OSUck, Clemson and Alabama. I see how Patrick Surtain's Dad kept him in South Florida to watch him play.
It's always "Once we get a new coach" "Once we get another two good classes" "These kids want to restore the Miami pride"and every year we get uneven play, jobbed in two to three games ACC refs who work for Tobacco Road bosses and (as proven in peer reviewed MIT research) call against our interest to promote their own (i.e. getting their favored teams better records). If you can't see this, then your myopia is what is giving you solace, because it sure isn't you looking at facts and trends.

Have you not noticed we have four five stars in this class? All Local

 

[CaneFan79]

Have you not noticed we have four five stars in this class? All Local

Yeah, I noticed we had that in 2008 too...What happened then? I see that class' recruiter is getting his defense obliterated tonight.

Diaz is another cheap hire like Shannon...He wouldn't make Saban's consultant staff.

 

[Boarcane]

Yeah, I noticed we had that in 2008 too...What happened then? I see that class' recruiter is getting his defense obliterated tonight.

Diaz is another cheap hire like Shannon...He wouldn't make Saban's consultant staff.

I hope you have a very merry Christmas.

 

[CaneFan79]

I hope you have a very merry Christmas.

Merry Christmas to You and Yours also!

 

[CaneFan79]

https://www.latimes.com/sports/stor...o-state-college-football-playoff-championship
https://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2021/1/5/22213393/college-football-has-a-competition-problem

And just think CIS folks, I gave you this story...In 2016!