National writers like picking Miami to win 6 or 7 games but try finding a sports book with a 6.5 over/under win total for Miami.
Miami was a terrible 2-5 in one score games last year. That’s not even counting a 10 point loss to Duke or the bowl game that the offense never got off the plane for. Even if the team does not improve at all, the law of averages says their record would improve. If they had gotten beat down in their losses, I’d be less optimistic for improvement but this team was literally a few bounces away from winning 9 games last year with a horrible offensive coordinator, no line and a quarterback who didn’t show up half the time.
If you believe the new offense, new transfers and incoming freshmen on offense and new kicker will not improve the team one tiny bit, then I guess 6 or 7 wins is reasonable. If you think all those things will improve the team at least a little bit, you should definitely be expecting a large jump in the win column.
Past results have little bearing on future outcomes in college football. Especially when you have so much staff and roster turnover on a year in year out basis.