Inspired by a post from @CANESCANES, I went back 20 years to analyze the hit rate for the consensus #1-ranked OT.
Miami commit Jackson Cantwell is the #1 OT on the composite this year (even after 247's ratings update). As you can see below, there is a very good chance he hits big. First rounders are in bold:
2005
Eugene Monroe, Virginia- 1st round, 8th overall, 90 NFL starts
2006
Andre Smith, Alabama- 1st round, 6th overall, 98 NFL starts
2007
Josh Oglesby, Wisconsin- Undrafted after multiple ACL injuries, first-team All Big 10 as a senior
2008
Matt Kalil, USC- 1st round, 4th overall, 1X Pro Bowl, 82 NFL starts
2009
Mason Walters, Texas- Undrafted, 51 starts at guard for the Longhorns
2010
Seantrel Henderson, Miami- 7th round, 29 NFL starts
2011
Cyrus Kouandijo, Alabama- 2nd round, First-team All-SEC, 8 NFL starts
2012
DJ Humphries, Florida- 1st round, 24th overall, 1X Pro Bowl, 100 NFL starts
2013
Laremy Tunsil, Ole Miss- 1st round, 13th overall, 5X Pro Bowl, 125 NFL starts
2014
Cam Robinson, Alabama- 2nd round, 2X First-team All-SEC, 101 NFL starts
2015
Martez Ivey, Florida- Undrafted
2016
Greg Little, Ole Miss- 2nd round, All-SEC First Team, 13 NFL starts
2017
Alex Leatherwood, Alabama- 1st round, 17th overall, 17 NFL starts
2018
Nicholas Petit-Frere, Ohio State- 3rd round, First-team All-Big 10, 28 NFL starts
2019
Evan Neal, Alabama- 1st round, 7th overall, 27 NFL starts
2020
Paris Johnson, Ohio State, 1st round, 5th overall, 31 NFL starts
2021
JC Latham, Alabama- 1st round, 7th overall, started all 17 games as rookie
2022
Zach Rice, UNC
2023
Francis Mauigoa, Miami
2024
Jordan Seaton, Colorado
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Of the 17 players who already left college, nine of them were first round picks (53%). That includes six Top 10 picks.
Of the eight who weren't first rounders, four of those guys were Day 2 picks and first-team All-Conference players.
Of the four who weren't Day 2 picks, two were productive college players (Oglesby and Walters) and another (Seantrel) was a Day 1 NFL starter who fell out of the league due to Crohn's disease.
The only outright flop on the list was, of course, a Florida Gator (Ivey).
Three #1 overall OTs are still in college. Zach Rice, now at Syracuse, seems poised to join Ivey on the flop list. The other two (Mauigoa and Seaton) project as future first rounders.
When you consider the pedigree, the physical traits, and the intangibles, the odds are very high that Jackson Cantwell develops into an impact player.
Miami commit Jackson Cantwell is the #1 OT on the composite this year (even after 247's ratings update). As you can see below, there is a very good chance he hits big. First rounders are in bold:
2005
Eugene Monroe, Virginia- 1st round, 8th overall, 90 NFL starts
2006
Andre Smith, Alabama- 1st round, 6th overall, 98 NFL starts
2007
Josh Oglesby, Wisconsin- Undrafted after multiple ACL injuries, first-team All Big 10 as a senior
2008
Matt Kalil, USC- 1st round, 4th overall, 1X Pro Bowl, 82 NFL starts
2009
Mason Walters, Texas- Undrafted, 51 starts at guard for the Longhorns
2010
Seantrel Henderson, Miami- 7th round, 29 NFL starts
2011
Cyrus Kouandijo, Alabama- 2nd round, First-team All-SEC, 8 NFL starts
2012
DJ Humphries, Florida- 1st round, 24th overall, 1X Pro Bowl, 100 NFL starts
2013
Laremy Tunsil, Ole Miss- 1st round, 13th overall, 5X Pro Bowl, 125 NFL starts
2014
Cam Robinson, Alabama- 2nd round, 2X First-team All-SEC, 101 NFL starts
2015
Martez Ivey, Florida- Undrafted
2016
Greg Little, Ole Miss- 2nd round, All-SEC First Team, 13 NFL starts
2017
Alex Leatherwood, Alabama- 1st round, 17th overall, 17 NFL starts
2018
Nicholas Petit-Frere, Ohio State- 3rd round, First-team All-Big 10, 28 NFL starts
2019
Evan Neal, Alabama- 1st round, 7th overall, 27 NFL starts
2020
Paris Johnson, Ohio State, 1st round, 5th overall, 31 NFL starts
2021
JC Latham, Alabama- 1st round, 7th overall, started all 17 games as rookie
2022
Zach Rice, UNC
2023
Francis Mauigoa, Miami
2024
Jordan Seaton, Colorado
____________________________________
Of the 17 players who already left college, nine of them were first round picks (53%). That includes six Top 10 picks.
Of the eight who weren't first rounders, four of those guys were Day 2 picks and first-team All-Conference players.
Of the four who weren't Day 2 picks, two were productive college players (Oglesby and Walters) and another (Seantrel) was a Day 1 NFL starter who fell out of the league due to Crohn's disease.
The only outright flop on the list was, of course, a Florida Gator (Ivey).
Three #1 overall OTs are still in college. Zach Rice, now at Syracuse, seems poised to join Ivey on the flop list. The other two (Mauigoa and Seaton) project as future first rounders.
When you consider the pedigree, the physical traits, and the intangibles, the odds are very high that Jackson Cantwell develops into an impact player.