While Miami is continuing to look for defensive help in the Portal, their offensive roster is pretty much set headed into the summer. How good can this group be?
I dove into some key stats courtesy of TeamRankings, which excludes stats compiled against FCS schools and thus provides the most accurate picture of team performance. The main takeaway: we're adding impact players who perform best in the areas we struggled with last year.
Let's start with the two most important mainstream stats: scoring and efficiency.
Points per game- 30.1 (38th nationally).
Under Gattis, this number was 19.4 (114th).
Yards per play- 6.1 (25th).
Under Gattis, this number was 4.8 (104th).
So there was a pretty profound improvement from year-to-year, but the offense was still not an elite group.
What were Miami's biggest weaknesses? The quarterbacks threw too many INTs, and they didn't pass well enough in a scheme that was surprisingly pass-dominant (88th in rushing play percentage). Here are two key stats from last year that tell the story:
Interception percentage: 3.48% (106th)
Passing yards per game: 250.4 ypg (47th)
With respect to passing yards per game, the top four teams all had QBs selected in the Top 12 picks of the NFL Draft. Miami is hoping Cam Ward follows in their footsteps. At Washington State, Cam Ward was able to avoid interceptions while leading a prolific passing game:
Interception percentage: 1.69% (19th)
Passing yards per game: 322.6 ypg (6th)
And it wasn't just dinking and dunking- Wazzu had the same yards per attempt as Miami on much higher volume. If Ward matches his '23 production (3,735 yards), he would break Bernie Kosar's single-season passing record (3,642 yards) which has stood for an amazing 40 years.
Even though Ward makes very good decisions with the ball, he has his own turnover issue: fumbles. Below are three areas where Wazzu struggled on offense:
Yards per rush: 2.6 (131st)
QB sacked per game: 3.5 (123rd)
Fumbles per game: 1.8 ypc (121st)
This is where Miami's superior OL reveals itself. Here's how Miami ranked in the same categories:
Yards per rush: 5.0 (20th)
QB sacked per game: 1.3 (17th)
Fumbles per game: 1.0 (38th)
The stats above are why Cam Ward came to Miami- he wanted a strong OL and running game. Ward himself shoulders some of the blame for the fumbles. He was careless at times and lacks strong hands. But the improved protection and run threat should limit the hits on the QB.
The rushing attack will be even better with the addition of Damien Martinez. Miami was Top 3 nationally in yards before contact due to the dominance of the OL. But the running backs failed to generate explosive plays. Shocking but true fact: Henry Parrish and Don Chaney had zero runs over 40 yards in their entire UM careers.
By contrast, Martinez had eight runs over 40 yards in his first two seasons as a teenager in the Pac-12. Last year alone, he had 39 runs over 10 yards (Top 5 among P5 backs). Martinez not only projects as the best runner that Ward has ever played with, he also projects as the best back of Cristobal's career.
Houston WR Sam Brown was the last piece to join the skill group. As it stands, Miami has the top two returning WRs in the ACC in terms of '23 yardage:
- Xavier Restrepo, Miami: 1,092 yards
- Jacolby George, Miami: 864 yards
- Kevin Concepcion, NC State: 839 yards
- Jordan Moore, Duke: 834 yards
- Malachi Fields, UVA: 811 yards
Of course, championships aren't won on paper. Top 10 offenses in this era are averaging 36+ ppg and 6.7+ yards per play. Can Miami meet those numbers? I don't think the expectations are too high.
