Would you bet on the Canes -51.5 vs Bethune Cookman?

Advertisement
Never kno. Malik young Might have 2 pick 6 and Thomas a PR TD

Also, think of our depth. When our second and third teamers go in they will have something to prove, and are vastly more talented than BC's starters.
 
It might be smarter to bet on the halftime spread (-26) instead of the full game ....we'll definitely keep the pedal on for the first half we'll definitely be up 4 scores by the half...but like others said it's hard to say how Richt will call the rest of the game

Is that -26 a guess or an actual bettable line? If it's an available line then it should be pounced upon, because it's a terrific bargain.

Spreads of that size are never cut in half to produce the first half number. It's more like 3/2 in favor of the first half. So this first half number would be something in the -30 to -31.5 neighborhood.

That's the standard math anyway. At the outset of each season I won't insist there couldn't be a mistake somewhere. It takes the less sophisticated joints a while to get back into the flow of things, or to merely copy the sharper books.

As I've long emphasized, none of this is as ultra sharp as conventional wisdom allows. Many of us in Las Vegas couldn't wait for new seasons to begin because there were always sportsbooks that would make stupid mistakes. The Las Vegas Hilton -- before Jay Kornegay and crew took over the sportsbook -- had several years of shaky sportsbook management. They would cut the large spreads perfectly in half even for the huge numbers, both in college football and college basketball. It was difficult not to laugh. For example, I would give -13.5 on the first half of a -27 game and when a sharper joint like the Mirage put up the same thing hours or a day later the number would be -16.5 or -17. So I could keep my initial wager while also playing partially for the middle. Likewise some spots notoriously didn't remember each November that college basketball first halves are lower scoring than second halves. So a 148 game total would have them using 74 for the first half total when it really should be closer to 69. Caesar's Palace, of all places, made that mistake almost every year. It would take a few days or perhaps a week -- if we were lucky -- for them to get hammered enough to remember the basics.

Consequently many of us didn't have to rely on picking winners as much as taking advantage of dumb sportsbooks. That isn't available as much anymore, not with all the corporate mergers. Many of my friends moved away and so did I. Now I'm mostly into boring index funds like FUSVX, FSEVX, FSRVX and garbage like that. That's where my sports winnings have been relocated although I do still wager on sports for lesser amounts, now that much of the edge is gone. Frankly, picking off the biotech stocks last year at low rate during all the panic selling was more enjoyable than anything regarding sports wagering in recent years. I love stocks that can move up or down 3% or more in a given day.

Regarding other topics covered in this thread:

* Back door covers are mostly a myth. Non-gamblers invariably overstate the danger. Sure it happens but via sheer logic the favorite in a game with a 51.5 point spread is the favorite for the first touchdown, the second touchdown, the third touchdown, and so forth. It never reaches the point where the underdog is favored for the next score. Front door covers happen dramatically more frequently than those touted back door covers. But since outliers are so popular, the back door types receive all the scrutiny when they show up

* Running clocks are high school football, not college football. You almost never see it and certainly not in a game with a 50 point margin. Again, that is a fear without basis from the non-wagering crowd. Focus on normalcy, not low percentage fear. We had a shortened 4th quarter and running clock in that game against Savannah State several years ago. That opponent was responsible for some of the highest pointspreads ever. Miami had 77 points at the end of the third quarter. Again, that's the only example in modern history of the program so it should not be viewed as a guide instead of mere trivia
 
Just in the last 3/4 years Miami had a running clock, NastyBooger.

A lot of words, a pretentious screed, but you're wrong again.
 
Advertisement
Better bet to take bama over FSU!

whats the line on that game?

opened at -7 and is 7.5 at some books

Bama going in raw with no lube! I'd take Bama at -10 in this game in a heartbeat. That FSU OL is gonna get raped!

No Winston, no Cook and a suspect OL...wouldn't surprise me. I keep trying to tell people FSU has been saved by Winston and Cook the last several years, now they're gonna see.
 
Stupid bet.

What if we're up 50-0 in the 4th quarter with 3rd stringers, we lose interest, refs go to a running clock, and we do the smart thing: take a knee for a whole quarter basically and just try to get out of there without injuries. We won big enough, no one will complain about a 50 point win. It won't hurt us in anyway. And all you 51.5 suckers will lose money.

If we are up by 50 early or even midway through the 4th there is a very good chance we cover. Not my opinion, this is just a betting fact that most favorites cover late in the game.

Or we don't.

Your money, bet away. If you enjoy it, then I'm not one to judge.

Me, I bet on the stock market and have never lost. It's legalized gambling where you always have something at the end. That's where I get my juice, so I've never quite understood betting on games, where you can lose the entire wad. But to each his own.

The market has been going up since 2009 so many have never experienced a significant drawdown on their acct. Tread carefully, we are way overdue for a correction. Back to Bethune--I've yet to do my due diligence on this game but it would be wise to keep bets small on this one.

This. Im a stock market guy too and I am not buying the "Ive gotten rich off the SM and retired at 28!" talk. Those are the same guys who back in 2008 were slitting their wrists. The stock market is just like betting. Odds are better but back in 2008 you were getting rammed up the *** like the rest of us.

Obviously this is for the OP who is a betting man like some of us. So this thread isnt really for anyone who doesnt bet.
 
With that said, I am with the guy who said to bet Bama at 8.5 (I think it was last time I checked).. I really believe Saban will be out to make a statement as Swinney and Fisher have been talking mad **** all summer about the SEC. This game might be too early for FSU. I can definitely see Bama being up by 7 at the end of the 4th and Bama going on a 16 play 90 yard drive, running the ball 13 times and wearing FSU out and scoring late to ice it and preserve the line.
 
Stupid bet.

What if we're up 50-0 in the 4th quarter with 3rd stringers, we lose interest, refs go to a running clock, and we do the smart thing: take a knee for a whole quarter basically and just try to get out of there without injuries. We won big enough, no one will complain about a 50 point win. It won't hurt us in anyway. And all you 51.5 suckers will lose money.

If we are up by 50 early or even midway through the 4th there is a very good chance we cover. Not my opinion, this is just a betting fact that most favorites cover late in the game.

Or we don't.

Your money, bet away. If you enjoy it, then I'm not one to judge.

Me, I bet on the stock market and have never lost. It's legalized gambling where you always have something at the end. That's where I get my juice, so I've never quite understood betting on games, where you can lose the entire wad. But to each his own.

The market has been going up since 2009 so many have never experienced a significant drawdown on their acct. Tread carefully, we are way overdue for a correction. Back to Bethune--I've yet to do my due diligence on this game but it would be wise to keep bets small on this one.

This. Im a stock market guy too and I am not buying the "Ive gotten rich off the SM and retired at 28!" talk. Those are the same guys who back in 2008 were slitting their wrists. The stock market is just like betting. Odds are better but back in 2008 you were getting rammed up the *** like the rest of us.

Obviously this is for the OP who is a betting man like some of us. So this thread isnt really for anyone who doesnt bet.

I'm good. The market could drop 50% and I'm still way ahead. I play the long game, with some short term bets that I have yet to lose at, and I've been playing it for almost 20 years. If I feel I need a little juice, I'll buy a stock right before the earnings call, and if I pick right I can get an overnight 3,4,5,6 % bump. If not, then I just hold until I recover.

I've already made a fortune trading in and out of high tech stocks like Apple, Alphabet, and others over the last ten years. Had I taken that money and used it to gamble, I'd at best have broken even. You gamble for the fun, not to make money, because long term you're never much ahead, and most likely probably behind. Long term in the Wall Street casino, you'll be ahead, unless you're extraordinarily bad.
 
Advertisement
Advertisement
Back
Top