It might be smarter to bet on the halftime spread (-26) instead of the full game ....we'll definitely keep the pedal on for the first half we'll definitely be up 4 scores by the half...but like others said it's hard to say how Richt will call the rest of the game
Is that -26 a guess or an actual bettable line? If it's an available line then it should be pounced upon, because it's a terrific bargain.
Spreads of that size are never cut in half to produce the first half number. It's more like 3/2 in favor of the first half. So this first half number would be something in the -30 to -31.5 neighborhood.
That's the standard math anyway. At the outset of each season I won't insist there couldn't be a mistake somewhere. It takes the less sophisticated joints a while to get back into the flow of things, or to merely copy the sharper books.
As I've long emphasized, none of this is as ultra sharp as conventional wisdom allows. Many of us in Las Vegas couldn't wait for new seasons to begin because there were always sportsbooks that would make stupid mistakes. The Las Vegas Hilton -- before Jay Kornegay and crew took over the sportsbook -- had several years of shaky sportsbook management. They would cut the large spreads perfectly in half even for the huge numbers, both in college football and college basketball. It was difficult not to laugh. For example, I would give -13.5 on the first half of a -27 game and when a sharper joint like the Mirage put up the same thing hours or a day later the number would be -16.5 or -17. So I could keep my initial wager while also playing partially for the middle. Likewise some spots notoriously didn't remember each November that college basketball first halves are lower scoring than second halves. So a 148 game total would have them using 74 for the first half total when it really should be closer to 69. Caesar's Palace, of all places, made that mistake almost every year. It would take a few days or perhaps a week -- if we were lucky -- for them to get hammered enough to remember the basics.
Consequently many of us didn't have to rely on picking winners as much as taking advantage of dumb sportsbooks. That isn't available as much anymore, not with all the corporate mergers. Many of my friends moved away and so did I. Now I'm mostly into boring index funds like FUSVX, FSEVX, FSRVX and garbage like that. That's where my sports winnings have been relocated although I do still wager on sports for lesser amounts, now that much of the edge is gone. Frankly, picking off the biotech stocks last year at low rate during all the panic selling was more enjoyable than anything regarding sports wagering in recent years. I love stocks that can move up or down 3% or more in a given day.
Regarding other topics covered in this thread:
* Back door covers are mostly a myth. Non-gamblers invariably overstate the danger. Sure it happens but via sheer logic the favorite in a game with a 51.5 point spread is the favorite for the first touchdown, the second touchdown, the third touchdown, and so forth. It never reaches the point where the underdog is favored for the next score. Front door covers happen dramatically more frequently than those touted back door covers. But since outliers are so popular, the back door types receive all the scrutiny when they show up
* Running clocks are high school football, not college football. You almost never see it and certainly not in a game with a 50 point margin. Again, that is a fear without basis from the non-wagering crowd. Focus on normalcy, not low percentage fear. We had a shortened 4th quarter and running clock in that game against Savannah State several years ago. That opponent was responsible for some of the highest pointspreads ever. Miami had 77 points at the end of the third quarter. Again, that's the only example in modern history of the program so it should not be viewed as a guide instead of mere trivia