Why Waiting for Blue Chips is a Dangerous Game

[WeBallinBoyz]

I want to preface this by saying this is going to be another long, data-filled thread

It’s not going to be pretty - in fact I think it’ll be pretty divisive. But it’s a message board, and people are allowed to formulate their own opinions, to which I look forward to seeing what people think of this. A lot of the information I will post below, will be copied from previous posts I made concerning the following: current blue-chip players committed, summer commitment %, how often they stick, and traditional recruiting powerhouses that haven’t kicked into gear (such as us).

I see a lot of posters and insiders now saying that the season will dictate how our class finishes. A few have alluded to us whiffing on kids. Well, let’s start off with the number of top247 composite kids (original had just 247 kids) currently committed to a school.

23 of the top 50 are committed (46%)
49 of the top 100 are committed (49%)
76 of the top 150 are committed (50.6%)
107 of the top 200 are committed (53.5%)
141 of the top 250 are committed (56.4%)

There are also 11 kids in the top 247 committing between today and July 8th (there’s some more scheduled after that date as well). Moreover, there are 13 additional 4-star players committing between those dates. I didn’t do the calculations on all 4 and 5 stars because this first rankings update in a few weeks will probably see the most movement; however I thought it was a safe bet that 95% of the current top 250 kids will stay in the top 450 (all 4 and 5 stars).

So we see that 56.4% are currently committed, and by July 8th (not counting the ones that just pop without a set date between now and the aforementioned date), 60.8% of them will be committed to a school. We’re seeing more summer commitments than ever. Cribby alluded to this a while back.

But WeBallinBoyz, who cares about summer rankings. You’re just being an impatient, greedy star *****. And there’s always the power of the flip once we have a great season!

Well yes, maybe I’ve been a bit impatient the last 2-3 days despite reminding myself that July and August are still to come. Of course guys are going to get flipped, and I reckon we will have some of those. We did it with Collins and Horton last year, and also experienced losses of Lew, Cormani and Antoine.

But why am I so overly concerned about the next six-ish weeks? Because the data shows kids don’t flip as often as you think. Josh Pate alluded to a 90% retention rate on July commits on one of his shows, so I was curious as to see if that really was the case. I was expecting somewhere in the 70% range.

I took a look at all four and five stars from the ‘23 recruiting class on the 247 composite (450-ish kids) and churned out these numbers concerning blue-chip commitment months and when (or if) they flipped.

April: 29/36 (80.56%)
May: 21/27 (77.78%)
June: 62/75 (82.67%)
July: 97/120 (80.3%)
August: 50/57 (87.2%)

Total = 259/315 (82.2%)

So it’s not 90%, but it’s above 80…Surprisingly, 27 of the top 450 ish kids committed in 2021, and 23 of them stayed committed (82.2%). Similarly, 29 of the top 450 ish kids committed in January, February, or March of 2022; 24 stayed committed (82.8%). A bit of a preconceived notion that accepting earlier commits results in more de-commitments.

So we see 82.2% of blue-chips that commit between April and August stick. But, there’s some caveats to the 56 that de-committed in this timeframe…

Stanford and Cincinnati experienced coaching changes; two players from the Cardinal de-committed to rival Pac-12 schools (Utah and USC, improvements), and six Bearcats in the top 450 upon Fickell’s departure (to various schools, all improvements).
There were three obvious improvements in competition, with players backing out of commitments to Northwestern, Arkansas St and Vandy to join Oregon, Auburn and LSU (respectively). We’re now down to 45 true de-commits, and we haven’t even scratched the surface of the Colorado saga or other unique 2023 examples.

So…yeah. My numbers may be off by a couple kids, but even factoring in some human error…Kids commit in the summer, and a vast majority stick. To think we’ll jump from (for example) an 18th-ranked class and flip errybody is completely biased. FSU and TCU both had great seasons, and yet aren’t seeing a sizable increase in commits. Success on the field doesn’t necessarily = ‘croots.

Last thing I want to leave everyone with are some teams that, like us, are just sitting back and getting ready to take off recruiting-wise.

#8 USC - 13 commits (10 four-stars, 3 3-stars)
#11 Tennessee - 14 commits (9 four-stars, 5 three-stars)
#12 Clemson - 12 commits (2 five-stars, 8-four stars, 2 3-stars)
#13 SCar - 12 commits (8 four-stars, 5 3-stars)
#24 Texas A&M - 11 commits (7 4-stars, 4 3-stars)
#28 Miami - 13 commits (3 4-stars, 10 3-stars)
#32 Alabama - 8 commits (3 5-stars, 4 4-stars, 1 3-star)
#44 Auburn - 8 commits (6 4-stars, 2 3-stars)
#45 Oklahoma - 8 commits (5 4-stars, 3 3-stars)
#54 Texas - 7 commits (5 4-stars, 2 3-stars)

I didn’t even mention FSU, who sits at #21 nationally (11 commits) because if THEY finish above us in recruiting…someone needs to be held accountable.

The allure of Mario included how tough his teams are and solid trench play, sure….but it’s the sheer recruiting power and success in that department that really sold a lot of people on here. If in Year 2, we’re already making excuses as to why we’re not raking in elite talent and saying “wait for games”…then what are we doing? Isn’t that the same thought process with Manny, Richt, Golden, Shannon?

Again, that last sentence is just food for thought and something to keep in the back of your head if the stars are lagging behind. It’s not me throwing in the towel and it’s not me comparing Mario to those three buffoons + a sick and burnt out Richt. It’s still June. But July is here, then it’ll be August…then it’s time to play games.

It’s time for the studs to jump in the boat. This is the expectation and always will be. It’s why Mario allegedly gutted the staff and replaced them with elite, hungry recruiters. It’s what he told all the fans when we went 5-7 and to be patient while we bring in elite player after elite player.

If anyone wants to chime in with more data or opinions/questions, feel free. I’m an analytics junkie and love lookin this ish up.

Show us results Mario. It’s in there, it’s time to close.

 

[Rickd]

I want to preface this by saying this is going to be another long, data-filled thread

It’s not going to be pretty - in fact I think it’ll be pretty divisive. But it’s a message board, and people are allowed to formulate their own opinions, to which I look forward to seeing what people think of this. A lot of the information I will post below, will be copied from previous posts I made concerning the following: current blue-chip players committed, summer commitment %, how often they stick, and traditional recruiting powerhouses that haven’t kicked into gear (such as us).

I see a lot of posters and insiders now saying that the season will dictate how our class finishes. A few have alluded to us whiffing on kids. Well, let’s let’s start off with the number of top247 composite kids (original had just 247 kids) currently committed to a school.

23 of the top 50 are committed (46%)
49 of the top 100 are committed (49%)
76 of the top 150 are committed (50.6%)
107 of the top 200 are committed (53.5%)
141 of the top 250 are committed (56.4%)

There are also 11 kids in the top 247 committing between today and July 8th (there’s some more scheduled after that date as well). Moreover, there are 13 additional 4-star players committing between those dates. I didn’t do the calculations on all 4 and 5 stars because this first rankings update in a few weeks will probably see the most movement; however I thought it was a safe bet that 95% of top 250 kids will stay in the top 450 (all 4 and 5 stars).

So we see that 56.4% are currently committed, and by July 8th (not counting the ones that just pop without a set date between now and the aforementioned date) 60.8% of them will be committed to a school.

But WeBallinBoyz, who cares about summer rankings. You’re just being an impatient, greedy star *****. And there’s always the power of the flip once we have a great season!

Well yes, maybe I’ve been a bit impatient the last 2-3 days despite reminding myself that July and August are still to come. Of course guys are going to get flipped, and I reckon we will have some of those. We did it with Collins and Horton last year, and also experienced losses of Lew, Cormani and Antoine.

But why am I so overly concerned about the next six-ish weeks? Because the data shows kids don’t flip as often as you think. Josh Pate alluded to a 90% retention rate on July commits on one of his shows, so I was curious as to see if that really was the case. I was expecting somewhere in the 70% range.

I took a look at all four and five stars from the ‘23 recruiting class on the 247 composite (450-ish kids) and churned out these numbers concerning blue-chip commitment months and when (or if) they flipped.

April: 29/36 (80.56%)
May: 21/27 (77.78%)
June: 62/75 (82.67%)
July: 97/120 (80.3%)
August: 50/57 (87.2%)

Total = 259/315 (82.2%)

So it’s not 90%, but it’s above 80…Surprisingly, 27 of the top 450 ish kids committed in 2021, and 23 of them stayed committed (82.2%). Similarly, 29 of the top 450 ish kids committed in January, February, or March of 2022; 24 stayed committed (82.8%). A bit of a preconceived notion that accepting earlier commits results in more de-commitments.

So we see 82.2% of blue-chips that commit between April and August stick. But, there’s some caveats to the 56 that de-committed in this timeframe…

Stanford and Cincinnati experienced coaching changes; two players from the Cardinal de-committed to rival Pac-12 schools (Utah and USC, improvements), and six Bearcats in the top 450 upon Fickell’s departure (to various schools, all improvements).
There were three obvious improvements in competition, with players backing out of commitments to Northwestern, Arkansas St and Vandy to join Oregon, Auburn and LSU (respectively). We’re now down to 45 true de-commits, and we haven’t even scratched the surface of the Colorado saga or other unique 2023 examples.

So…yeah. Kids commit in the summer, and a vast majority stick. To think we’ll jump from (for example) an 18th-ranked class and flip errybody is completely biased. FSU and TCU both had great seasons, and yet aren’t seeing a sizable increase in commits. Success on the field doesn’t necessarily = ‘croots.

Last thing I want to leave everyone with are some teams that, like us, are just sitting back and getting ready to take off recruiting-wise.

#8 USC - 13 commits (10 four-stars, 3 3-stars)
#11 Tennessee - 14 commits (9 four-stars, 5 three-stars)
#12 Clemson - 12 commits (2 five-stars, 8-four stars, 2 3-stars)
#13 SCar - 12 commits (8 four-stars, 5 3-stars)
#24 Texas A&M - 11 commits (7 4-stars, 4 3-stars)
#28 Miami - 12 commits (3 4-stars, 9 3-stars)
#32 Alabama - 8 commits (3 5-stars, 4 4-stars, 1 3-star)
#44 Auburn - 8 commits (6 4-stars, 2 3-stars)
#45 Oklahoma - 8 commits (5 4-stars, 3 3-stars)
#54 Texas - 7 commits (5 4-stars, 2 3-stars)

I didn’t even mention FSU, who sits at #21 nationally (11 commits) because if THEY finish above us in recruiting…someone needs to be held accountable.

The allure of Mario included how tough his teams are and solid trench play, sure….but it’s the sheer recruiting power and success in that department that really sold a lot of people on here. If in Year 2, we’re already making excuses as to why we’re not raking in elite talent and saying “wait for games”…then what are we doing? Isn’t that the same thought process with Manny, Richt, Golden, Shannon?

Again, that last sentence is just food for thought and something to keep in the back of your head if the stars are lagging behind. It’s not me throwing in the towel and it’s not me comparing Mario to those three buffoons + a sick and burnt out Richt. It’s still June. But July is here, then it’ll be August…then it’s time to play games.

It’s time for the studs to jump in the boat. This is the expectation and always will be. It’s why Mario allegedly gutted the staff and replaced them with elite, hungry recruiters. It’s what he told all the fans when we went 5-7 and to be patient while we bring in elite player after elite player.

Show us results.

Believe the barometer of "where are we at" will be much clearer by Sept 1st. Then ... it's a long time until December. Nothing will be "final" with our commits or with a few elite WR's sitting on the fence, until Coach Dawson's offensive unit shows what they can do. Putting up points, productive WR's and RB's = solidifying commitments and pulling "leaners" to the table to sign.

 

[DMoney]

Good post. We need to win some battles the next six weeks. There is urgency.

At the same time, momentum will carry us home if the team plays well. Mario has landed Citizen, Skinner, Moss, Kelly and Fletcher later in the process. He is a dangerous recruiter when there is excitement behind the program.

We’ve laid a lot of groundwork. The key is not getting in too deep a hole before the season.

 

[GrozDozer]

TOC hacked your account?

 

[GrozDozer]

Good post. We need to win some battles the next six week. There is urgency.

At the same time, momentum will carry us home if the team plays well. Mario has landed Citizen, Skinner, Moss and Fletcher later in the process. He is a dangerous recruiter when there is excitement behind the program.

We’ve laid a lot of groundwork. The key is not looking like dog**** on the field.

FIFY

 

[Highline17]

Posts like this is what makes the CIS community so good. I agree on all fronts, we need to pick up some elite players soon.

 

[Santana Sosa]

Lol actually I read it...but I just like using this meme every chance I get.

 

[Dude]

I want to preface this by saying this is going to be another long, data-filled thread

It’s not going to be pretty - in fact I think it’ll be pretty divisive. But it’s a message board, and people are allowed to formulate their own opinions, to which I look forward to seeing what people think of this. A lot of the information I will post below, will be copied from previous posts I made concerning the following: current blue-chip players committed, summer commitment %, how often they stick, and traditional recruiting powerhouses that haven’t kicked into gear (such as us).

I see a lot of posters and insiders now saying that the season will dictate how our class finishes. A few have alluded to us whiffing on kids. Well, let’s let’s start off with the number of top247 composite kids (original had just 247 kids) currently committed to a school.

23 of the top 50 are committed (46%)
49 of the top 100 are committed (49%)
76 of the top 150 are committed (50.6%)
107 of the top 200 are committed (53.5%)
141 of the top 250 are committed (56.4%)

There are also 11 kids in the top 247 committing between today and July 8th (there’s some more scheduled after that date as well). Moreover, there are 13 additional 4-star players committing between those dates. I didn’t do the calculations on all 4 and 5 stars because this first rankings update in a few weeks will probably see the most movement; however I thought it was a safe bet that 95% of the current top 250 kids will stay in the top 450 (all 4 and 5 stars).

So we see that 56.4% are currently committed, and by July 8th (not counting the ones that just pop without a set date between now and the aforementioned date), 60.8% of them will be committed to a school. We’re seeing more summer commitments than ever. Cribby alluded to this a while back.

But WeBallinBoyz, who cares about summer rankings. You’re just being an impatient, greedy star *****. And there’s always the power of the flip once we have a great season!

Well yes, maybe I’ve been a bit impatient the last 2-3 days despite reminding myself that July and August are still to come. Of course guys are going to get flipped, and I reckon we will have some of those. We did it with Collins and Horton last year, and also experienced losses of Lew, Cormani and Antoine.

But why am I so overly concerned about the next six-ish weeks? Because the data shows kids don’t flip as often as you think. Josh Pate alluded to a 90% retention rate on July commits on one of his shows, so I was curious as to see if that really was the case. I was expecting somewhere in the 70% range.

I took a look at all four and five stars from the ‘23 recruiting class on the 247 composite (450-ish kids) and churned out these numbers concerning blue-chip commitment months and when (or if) they flipped.

April: 29/36 (80.56%)
May: 21/27 (77.78%)
June: 62/75 (82.67%)
July: 97/120 (80.3%)
August: 50/57 (87.2%)

Total = 259/315 (82.2%)

So it’s not 90%, but it’s above 80…Surprisingly, 27 of the top 450 ish kids committed in 2021, and 23 of them stayed committed (82.2%). Similarly, 29 of the top 450 ish kids committed in January, February, or March of 2022; 24 stayed committed (82.8%). A bit of a preconceived notion that accepting earlier commits results in more de-commitments.

So we see 82.2% of blue-chips that commit between April and August stick. But, there’s some caveats to the 56 that de-committed in this timeframe…

Stanford and Cincinnati experienced coaching changes; two players from the Cardinal de-committed to rival Pac-12 schools (Utah and USC, improvements), and six Bearcats in the top 450 upon Fickell’s departure (to various schools, all improvements).
There were three obvious improvements in competition, with players backing out of commitments to Northwestern, Arkansas St and Vandy to join Oregon, Auburn and LSU (respectively). We’re now down to 45 true de-commits, and we haven’t even scratched the surface of the Colorado saga or other unique 2023 examples.

So…yeah. My numbers may be off by a couple kids, but ven factoring in some human error…Kids commit in the summer, and a vast majority stick. To think we’ll jump from (for example) an 18th-ranked class and flip errybody is completely biased. FSU and TCU both had great seasons, and yet aren’t seeing a sizable increase in commits. Success on the field doesn’t necessarily = ‘croots.

Last thing I want to leave everyone with are some teams that, like us, are just sitting back and getting ready to take off recruiting-wise.

#8 USC - 13 commits (10 four-stars, 3 3-stars)
#11 Tennessee - 14 commits (9 four-stars, 5 three-stars)
#12 Clemson - 12 commits (2 five-stars, 8-four stars, 2 3-stars)
#13 SCar - 12 commits (8 four-stars, 5 3-stars)
#24 Texas A&M - 11 commits (7 4-stars, 4 3-stars)
#28 Miami - 13 commits (3 4-stars, 10 3-stars)
#32 Alabama - 8 commits (3 5-stars, 4 4-stars, 1 3-star)
#44 Auburn - 8 commits (6 4-stars, 2 3-stars)
#45 Oklahoma - 8 commits (5 4-stars, 3 3-stars)
#54 Texas - 7 commits (5 4-stars, 2 3-stars)

I didn’t even mention FSU, who sits at #21 nationally (11 commits) because if THEY finish above us in recruiting…someone needs to be held accountable.

The allure of Mario included how tough his teams are and solid trench play, sure….but it’s the sheer recruiting power and success in that department that really sold a lot of people on here. If in Year 2, we’re already making excuses as to why we’re not raking in elite talent and saying “wait for games”…then what are we doing? Isn’t that the same thought process with Manny, Richt, Golden, Shannon?

Again, that last sentence is just food for thought and something to keep in the back of your head if the stars are lagging behind. It’s not me throwing in the towel and it’s not me comparing Mario to those three buffoons + a sick and burnt out Richt. It’s still June. But July is here, then it’ll be August…then it’s time to play games.

It’s time for the studs to jump in the boat. This is the expectation and always will be. It’s why Mario allegedly gutted the staff and replaced them with elite, hungry recruiters. It’s what he told all the fans when we went 5-7 and to be patient while we bring in elite player after elite player.

If anyone wants to chime in with more data or opinions/questions, feel free. I’m an analytics junkie and love lookin this ish up.

Show us results Mario. It’s in there, it’s time to close.

There are seventeen 4*, and two 5* kids in SoFL. We have 1 committed. This class sucks, no way to spin it otherwise. 2 of them are DL from Columbus... yes that Columbus. We are trying to get lucky but the numbers tell us we lost SoFL and Mario hasn't been the instant fix there that many hoped he would be. Now we are waiting on winning games, not good.

 

[Scorpioncane]

There are seventeen 4*, and two 5* kids in SoFL. We have 1 committed. This class sucks, no way to spin it otherwise. 2 of them are DL from Columbus... yes that Columbus. We are trying to get lucky but the numbers tell us we lost SoFL and Mario hasn't been the instant fix there that many hoped he would be. Now we are waiting on winning games, not good.

Your opinion is appreciated!

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

There are seventeen 4*, and two 5* kids in SoFL. We have 1 committed. This class sucks, no way to spin it otherwise. 2 of them are DL from Columbus... yes that Columbus. We are trying to get lucky but the numbers tell us we lost SoFL and Mario hasn't been the instant fix there that many hoped he would be. Now we are waiting on winning games, not good.

This post might be more appropriate end of July or mid August. I would say we are in wait-and-see mode.

 

[The U is back to work]

Crazy how different the feeling is now. Went from best DL class of all time maybe and now it’s can we keep Lightfoot out of the Midwest lol

 

[Dude]

This post might be more appropriate end of July or mid August. I would say we are in wait-and-see mode.

Could have 5 or 6 committed though? People are right to be nervous.

 

[423Hurricane]

I love numbers as well but don’t have the time or patience to dig so I appreciate you taking the time to do so @WeBallinBoyz

The numbers don’t lie. Sure, there are several factors (and we all know what they are) that contribute to, and affect the ultimate outcome.

There’s 109 of the top 250 uncommitted. How many are we “in” it for?

 

[Canes2082]

There are seventeen 4*, and two 5* kids in SoFL. We have 1 committed. This class sucks, no way to spin it otherwise. 2 of them are DL from Columbus... yes that Columbus. We are trying to get lucky but the numbers tell us we lost SoFL and Mario hasn't been the instant fix there that many hoped he would be. Now we are waiting on winning games, not good.

Why don’t you wait until the entire 23 class is complete to decide whether it sucks or not. You know a ton of our targets remain uncommitted and this class could have a higher total than last years.

 

[TheU1984]

This post might be more appropriate end of July or mid August. I would say we are in wait-and-see mode.

Was just about to say. I think if we’re looking similar to this come mid Fall practice, this is warranted. But I’m still waiting another month for, as they say, some dominoes to fall or whales to spout.

 

[Dude]

Why don’t you wait until the entire 23 class is complete to decide whether it sucks or not. You know a ton of our targets remain uncommitted and this class could have a higher total than last years.

1 out of 19. O-N-E. This isn't my 1st year watching college football man. I know what it looks like when a class currently sucks. Maybe that changes, and I will praise Mario should he start reeling them in. But all of this talk of whales while it's mostly a mixed bag of maybe is silly. Call a spade a spade. Right now, we aren't in a good spot, we need a lot to start breaking our way and soon. That's never where you want to be.

 

[Santana Sosa]

I would say the one thing that I'm nervous of is this saying being repeated.."how the season goes". No one has ever accused Coach of being an excellent GameDay coach. We have new coordinators on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. I'm calling 6 wins a success on that alone. But, Mario is renowned for recruiting...not coaching. (And trench developement.) My concern is what kind of season do we need to have to close on this elite kids in their eyes?

 

[JgDaCane]

Why don’t you wait until the entire 23 class is complete to decide whether it sucks or not. You know a ton of our targets remain uncommitted and this class could have a higher total than last years.

Eh that's usually not how things work & you know that.

 

[Caneoverhere]

Yeah, it's time for some good news.

 

[Dude]

Was just about to say. I think if we’re looking similar to this come mid Fall practice, this is warranted. But I’m still waiting another month for, as they say, some dominoes to fall or whales to spout.

Fair. And I'm not trying to tell anyone to jump of a bridge. Im just pointing out things aren't breaking our program's way right now. We have to thread an ever increasingly tight needle.