Why Waiting for Blue Chips is a Dangerous Game

1 out of 19. O-N-E. This isn't my 1st year watching college football man. I know what it looks like when a class currently sucks. Maybe that changes, and I will praise Mario should he start reeling them in. But all of this talk of whales while it's mostly a mixed bag of maybe is silly. Call a spade a spade. Right now, we aren't in a good spot, we need a lot to start breaking our way and soon. That's never where you want to be.

Then preface by saying right now this class sucks in your opinion. Your talking in absolutes and finales…
 
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There are seventeen 4*, and two 5* kids in SoFL. We have 1 committed. This class sucks, no way to spin it otherwise. 2 of them are DL from Columbus... yes that Columbus. We are trying to get lucky but the numbers tell us we lost SoFL and Mario hasn't been the instant fix there that many hoped he would be. Now we are waiting on winning games, not good.
We literally signed a Top5 class last season… How are you gonna say Mario isn’t recruiting well. We still have a great shot with multiple 5* guys… Not to mention many other 4* guys as well.
 
Crazy how different the feeling is now. Went from best DL class of all time maybe and now it’s can we keep Lightfoot out of the Midwest lol
We've gone from maybe our best DL class ever,Top overall DL class this year to now I've been seeing a bunch of posts hoping for a top 3 DL class,we know what's next top 10 DL class and if things go south it will be hoping for a top 5 DL class in the acc.
 
We literally signed a Top5 class last season… How are you gonna say Mario isn’t recruiting well. We still have a great shot with multiple 5* guys… Not to mention many other 4* guys as well.
We didn't sign a top 5 class last year.
I thought I clearly explained how 1/19 from SoFL, with 2 DL from Columbus isn't getting it done. I thought that was clear sorry.
 
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I want to preface this by saying this is going to be another long, data-filled thread 🚨🚨

It’s not going to be pretty - in fact I think it’ll be pretty divisive. But it’s a message board, and people are allowed to formulate their own opinions, to which I look forward to seeing what people think of this. A lot of the information I will post below, will be copied from previous posts I made concerning the following: current blue-chip players committed, summer commitment %, how often they stick, and traditional recruiting powerhouses that haven’t kicked into gear (such as us).

I see a lot of posters and insiders now saying that the season will dictate how our class finishes. A few have alluded to us whiffing on kids. Well, let’s let’s start off with the number of top247 composite kids (original had just 247 kids) currently committed to a school.

23 of the top 50 are committed (46%)
49 of the top 100 are committed (49%)
76 of the top 150 are committed (50.6%)
107 of the top 200 are committed (53.5%)
141 of the top 250 are committed (56.4%)

There are also 11 kids in the top 247 committing between today and July 8th (there’s some more scheduled after that date as well). Moreover, there are 13 additional 4-star players committing between those dates. I didn’t do the calculations on all 4 and 5 stars because this first rankings update in a few weeks will probably see the most movement; however I thought it was a safe bet that 95% of the current top 250 kids will stay in the top 450 (all 4 and 5 stars).

So we see that 56.4% are currently committed, and by July 8th (not counting the ones that just pop without a set date between now and the aforementioned date), 60.8% of them will be committed to a school. We’re seeing more summer commitments than ever. Cribby alluded to this a while back.

But WeBallinBoyz, who cares about summer rankings. You’re just being an impatient, greedy star *****. And there’s always the power of the flip once we have a great season!

Well yes, maybe I’ve been a bit impatient the last 2-3 days despite reminding myself that July and August are still to come. Of course guys are going to get flipped, and I reckon we will have some of those. We did it with Collins and Horton last year, and also experienced losses of Lew, Cormani and Antoine.

But why am I so overly concerned about the next six-ish weeks? Because the data shows kids don’t flip as often as you think. Josh Pate alluded to a 90% retention rate on July commits on one of his shows, so I was curious as to see if that really was the case. I was expecting somewhere in the 70% range.

I took a look at all four and five stars from the ‘23 recruiting class on the 247 composite (450-ish kids) and churned out these numbers concerning blue-chip commitment months and when (or if) they flipped.

April: 29/36 (80.56%)
May: 21/27 (77.78%)
June: 62/75 (82.67%)
July: 97/120 (80.3%)
August: 50/57 (87.2%)

Total = 259/315 (82.2%)

So it’s not 90%, but it’s above 80…Surprisingly, 27 of the top 450 ish kids committed in 2021, and 23 of them stayed committed (82.2%). Similarly, 29 of the top 450 ish kids committed in January, February, or March of 2022; 24 stayed committed (82.8%). A bit of a preconceived notion that accepting earlier commits results in more de-commitments.

So we see 82.2% of blue-chips that commit between April and August stick. But, there’s some caveats to the 56 that de-committed in this timeframe…

Stanford and Cincinnati experienced coaching changes; two players from the Cardinal de-committed to rival Pac-12 schools (Utah and USC, improvements), and six Bearcats in the top 450 upon Fickell’s departure (to various schools, all improvements).
There were three obvious improvements in competition, with players backing out of commitments to Northwestern, Arkansas St and Vandy to join Oregon, Auburn and LSU (respectively). We’re now down to 45 true de-commits, and we haven’t even scratched the surface of the Colorado saga or other unique 2023 examples.

So…yeah. My numbers may be off by a couple kids, but ven factoring in some human error…Kids commit in the summer, and a vast majority stick. To think we’ll jump from (for example) an 18th-ranked class and flip errybody is completely biased. FSU and TCU both had great seasons, and yet aren’t seeing a sizable increase in commits. Success on the field doesn’t necessarily = ‘croots.

Last thing I want to leave everyone with are some teams that, like us, are just sitting back and getting ready to take off recruiting-wise.

#8 USC - 13 commits (10 four-stars, 3 3-stars)
#11 Tennessee - 14 commits (9 four-stars, 5 three-stars)
#12 Clemson - 12 commits (2 five-stars, 8-four stars, 2 3-stars)
#13 SCar - 12 commits (8 four-stars, 5 3-stars)
#24 Texas A&M - 11 commits (7 4-stars, 4 3-stars)
#28 Miami - 13 commits (3 4-stars, 10 3-stars)
#32 Alabama - 8 commits (3 5-stars, 4 4-stars, 1 3-star)
#44 Auburn - 8 commits (6 4-stars, 2 3-stars)
#45 Oklahoma - 8 commits (5 4-stars, 3 3-stars)
#54 Texas - 7 commits (5 4-stars, 2 3-stars)

I didn’t even mention FSU, who sits at #21 nationally (11 commits) because if THEY finish above us in recruiting…someone needs to be held accountable.

The allure of Mario included how tough his teams are and solid trench play, sure….but it’s the sheer recruiting power and success in that department that really sold a lot of people on here. If in Year 2, we’re already making excuses as to why we’re not raking in elite talent and saying “wait for games”…then what are we doing? Isn’t that the same thought process with Manny, Richt, Golden, Shannon?

Again, that last sentence is just food for thought and something to keep in the back of your head if the stars are lagging behind. It’s not me throwing in the towel and it’s not me comparing Mario to those three buffoons + a sick and burnt out Richt. It’s still June. But July is here, then it’ll be August…then it’s time to play games.

It’s time for the studs to jump in the boat. This is the expectation and always will be. It’s why Mario allegedly gutted the staff and replaced them with elite, hungry recruiters. It’s what he told all the fans when we went 5-7 and to be patient while we bring in elite player after elite player.

If anyone wants to chime in with more data or opinions/questions, feel free. I’m an analytics junkie and love lookin this ish up.

Show us results Mario. It’s in there, it’s time to close.
Great work and great post. I love stuff like
this too. Do you know what % of the 247 composite is committed by Sep 1? If there is an 80% retention rate it would be helpful to know what % of the top 250 commit before that date. That would show what we are actually working with and how weighted these commits are. I would bet the number is higher than we think. My biggest concern is that we are giving ourselves a small margin for error and setting ourselves up for a difficult close where we have to run the table to have the class we need to be successful
 
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I want to preface this by saying this is going to be another long, data-filled thread 🚨🚨

It’s not going to be pretty - in fact I think it’ll be pretty divisive. But it’s a message board, and people are allowed to formulate their own opinions, to which I look forward to seeing what people think of this. A lot of the information I will post below, will be copied from previous posts I made concerning the following: current blue-chip players committed, summer commitment %, how often they stick, and traditional recruiting powerhouses that haven’t kicked into gear (such as us).

I see a lot of posters and insiders now saying that the season will dictate how our class finishes. A few have alluded to us whiffing on kids. Well, let’s let’s start off with the number of top247 composite kids (original had just 247 kids) currently committed to a school.

23 of the top 50 are committed (46%)
49 of the top 100 are committed (49%)
76 of the top 150 are committed (50.6%)
107 of the top 200 are committed (53.5%)
141 of the top 250 are committed (56.4%)

There are also 11 kids in the top 247 committing between today and July 8th (there’s some more scheduled after that date as well). Moreover, there are 13 additional 4-star players committing between those dates. I didn’t do the calculations on all 4 and 5 stars because this first rankings update in a few weeks will probably see the most movement; however I thought it was a safe bet that 95% of the current top 250 kids will stay in the top 450 (all 4 and 5 stars).

So we see that 56.4% are currently committed, and by July 8th (not counting the ones that just pop without a set date between now and the aforementioned date), 60.8% of them will be committed to a school. We’re seeing more summer commitments than ever. Cribby alluded to this a while back.

But WeBallinBoyz, who cares about summer rankings. You’re just being an impatient, greedy star *****. And there’s always the power of the flip once we have a great season!

Well yes, maybe I’ve been a bit impatient the last 2-3 days despite reminding myself that July and August are still to come. Of course guys are going to get flipped, and I reckon we will have some of those. We did it with Collins and Horton last year, and also experienced losses of Lew, Cormani and Antoine.

But why am I so overly concerned about the next six-ish weeks? Because the data shows kids don’t flip as often as you think. Josh Pate alluded to a 90% retention rate on July commits on one of his shows, so I was curious as to see if that really was the case. I was expecting somewhere in the 70% range.

I took a look at all four and five stars from the ‘23 recruiting class on the 247 composite (450-ish kids) and churned out these numbers concerning blue-chip commitment months and when (or if) they flipped.

April: 29/36 (80.56%)
May: 21/27 (77.78%)
June: 62/75 (82.67%)
July: 97/120 (80.3%)
August: 50/57 (87.2%)

Total = 259/315 (82.2%)

So it’s not 90%, but it’s above 80…Surprisingly, 27 of the top 450 ish kids committed in 2021, and 23 of them stayed committed (82.2%). Similarly, 29 of the top 450 ish kids committed in January, February, or March of 2022; 24 stayed committed (82.8%). A bit of a preconceived notion that accepting earlier commits results in more de-commitments.

So we see 82.2% of blue-chips that commit between April and August stick. But, there’s some caveats to the 56 that de-committed in this timeframe…

Stanford and Cincinnati experienced coaching changes; two players from the Cardinal de-committed to rival Pac-12 schools (Utah and USC, improvements), and six Bearcats in the top 450 upon Fickell’s departure (to various schools, all improvements).
There were three obvious improvements in competition, with players backing out of commitments to Northwestern, Arkansas St and Vandy to join Oregon, Auburn and LSU (respectively). We’re now down to 45 true de-commits, and we haven’t even scratched the surface of the Colorado saga or other unique 2023 examples.

So…yeah. My numbers may be off by a couple kids, but ven factoring in some human error…Kids commit in the summer, and a vast majority stick. To think we’ll jump from (for example) an 18th-ranked class and flip errybody is completely biased. FSU and TCU both had great seasons, and yet aren’t seeing a sizable increase in commits. Success on the field doesn’t necessarily = ‘croots.

Last thing I want to leave everyone with are some teams that, like us, are just sitting back and getting ready to take off recruiting-wise.

#8 USC - 13 commits (10 four-stars, 3 3-stars)
#11 Tennessee - 14 commits (9 four-stars, 5 three-stars)
#12 Clemson - 12 commits (2 five-stars, 8-four stars, 2 3-stars)
#13 SCar - 12 commits (8 four-stars, 5 3-stars)
#24 Texas A&M - 11 commits (7 4-stars, 4 3-stars)
#28 Miami - 13 commits (3 4-stars, 10 3-stars)
#32 Alabama - 8 commits (3 5-stars, 4 4-stars, 1 3-star)
#44 Auburn - 8 commits (6 4-stars, 2 3-stars)
#45 Oklahoma - 8 commits (5 4-stars, 3 3-stars)
#54 Texas - 7 commits (5 4-stars, 2 3-stars)

I didn’t even mention FSU, who sits at #21 nationally (11 commits) because if THEY finish above us in recruiting…someone needs to be held accountable.

The allure of Mario included how tough his teams are and solid trench play, sure….but it’s the sheer recruiting power and success in that department that really sold a lot of people on here. If in Year 2, we’re already making excuses as to why we’re not raking in elite talent and saying “wait for games”…then what are we doing? Isn’t that the same thought process with Manny, Richt, Golden, Shannon?

Again, that last sentence is just food for thought and something to keep in the back of your head if the stars are lagging behind. It’s not me throwing in the towel and it’s not me comparing Mario to those three buffoons + a sick and burnt out Richt. It’s still June. But July is here, then it’ll be August…then it’s time to play games.

It’s time for the studs to jump in the boat. This is the expectation and always will be. It’s why Mario allegedly gutted the staff and replaced them with elite, hungry recruiters. It’s what he told all the fans when we went 5-7 anEMailsd to be patient while we bring in elite player after elite player.

If anyone wants to chime in with more data or opinions/questions, feel free. I’m an analytics junkie and love lookin this ish up.

Show us results Mario. It’s in there, it’s time to close.
Jesus....I ate 2 Sandwiches, a slice of pie, and checked my E-Mails while reading....
 
I want to preface this by saying this is going to be another long, data-filled thread 🚨🚨

It’s not going to be pretty - in fact I think it’ll be pretty divisive. But it’s a message board, and people are allowed to formulate their own opinions, to which I look forward to seeing what people think of this. A lot of the information I will post below, will be copied from previous posts I made concerning the following: current blue-chip players committed, summer commitment %, how often they stick, and traditional recruiting powerhouses that haven’t kicked into gear (such as us).

I see a lot of posters and insiders now saying that the season will dictate how our class finishes. A few have alluded to us whiffing on kids. Well, let’s let’s start off with the number of top247 composite kids (original had just 247 kids) currently committed to a school.

23 of the top 50 are committed (46%)
49 of the top 100 are committed (49%)
76 of the top 150 are committed (50.6%)
107 of the top 200 are committed (53.5%)
141 of the top 250 are committed (56.4%)

There are also 11 kids in the top 247 committing between today and July 8th (there’s some more scheduled after that date as well). Moreover, there are 13 additional 4-star players committing between those dates. I didn’t do the calculations on all 4 and 5 stars because this first rankings update in a few weeks will probably see the most movement; however I thought it was a safe bet that 95% of the current top 250 kids will stay in the top 450 (all 4 and 5 stars).

So we see that 56.4% are currently committed, and by July 8th (not counting the ones that just pop without a set date between now and the aforementioned date), 60.8% of them will be committed to a school. We’re seeing more summer commitments than ever. Cribby alluded to this a while back.

But WeBallinBoyz, who cares about summer rankings. You’re just being an impatient, greedy star *****. And there’s always the power of the flip once we have a great season!

Well yes, maybe I’ve been a bit impatient the last 2-3 days despite reminding myself that July and August are still to come. Of course guys are going to get flipped, and I reckon we will have some of those. We did it with Collins and Horton last year, and also experienced losses of Lew, Cormani and Antoine.

But why am I so overly concerned about the next six-ish weeks? Because the data shows kids don’t flip as often as you think. Josh Pate alluded to a 90% retention rate on July commits on one of his shows, so I was curious as to see if that really was the case. I was expecting somewhere in the 70% range.

I took a look at all four and five stars from the ‘23 recruiting class on the 247 composite (450-ish kids) and churned out these numbers concerning blue-chip commitment months and when (or if) they flipped.

April: 29/36 (80.56%)
May: 21/27 (77.78%)
June: 62/75 (82.67%)
July: 97/120 (80.3%)
August: 50/57 (87.2%)

Total = 259/315 (82.2%)

So it’s not 90%, but it’s above 80…Surprisingly, 27 of the top 450 ish kids committed in 2021, and 23 of them stayed committed (82.2%). Similarly, 29 of the top 450 ish kids committed in January, February, or March of 2022; 24 stayed committed (82.8%). A bit of a preconceived notion that accepting earlier commits results in more de-commitments.

So we see 82.2% of blue-chips that commit between April and August stick. But, there’s some caveats to the 56 that de-committed in this timeframe…

Stanford and Cincinnati experienced coaching changes; two players from the Cardinal de-committed to rival Pac-12 schools (Utah and USC, improvements), and six Bearcats in the top 450 upon Fickell’s departure (to various schools, all improvements).
There were three obvious improvements in competition, with players backing out of commitments to Northwestern, Arkansas St and Vandy to join Oregon, Auburn and LSU (respectively). We’re now down to 45 true de-commits, and we haven’t even scratched the surface of the Colorado saga or other unique 2023 examples.

So…yeah. My numbers may be off by a couple kids, but ven factoring in some human error…Kids commit in the summer, and a vast majority stick. To think we’ll jump from (for example) an 18th-ranked class and flip errybody is completely biased. FSU and TCU both had great seasons, and yet aren’t seeing a sizable increase in commits. Success on the field doesn’t necessarily = ‘croots.

Last thing I want to leave everyone with are some teams that, like us, are just sitting back and getting ready to take off recruiting-wise.

#8 USC - 13 commits (10 four-stars, 3 3-stars)
#11 Tennessee - 14 commits (9 four-stars, 5 three-stars)
#12 Clemson - 12 commits (2 five-stars, 8-four stars, 2 3-stars)
#13 SCar - 12 commits (8 four-stars, 5 3-stars)
#24 Texas A&M - 11 commits (7 4-stars, 4 3-stars)
#28 Miami - 13 commits (3 4-stars, 10 3-stars)
#32 Alabama - 8 commits (3 5-stars, 4 4-stars, 1 3-star)
#44 Auburn - 8 commits (6 4-stars, 2 3-stars)
#45 Oklahoma - 8 commits (5 4-stars, 3 3-stars)
#54 Texas - 7 commits (5 4-stars, 2 3-stars)

I didn’t even mention FSU, who sits at #21 nationally (11 commits) because if THEY finish above us in recruiting…someone needs to be held accountable.

The allure of Mario included how tough his teams are and solid trench play, sure….but it’s the sheer recruiting power and success in that department that really sold a lot of people on here. If in Year 2, we’re already making excuses as to why we’re not raking in elite talent and saying “wait for games”…then what are we doing? Isn’t that the same thought process with Manny, Richt, Golden, Shannon?

Again, that last sentence is just food for thought and something to keep in the back of your head if the stars are lagging behind. It’s not me throwing in the towel and it’s not me comparing Mario to those three buffoons + a sick and burnt out Richt. It’s still June. But July is here, then it’ll be August…then it’s time to play games.

It’s time for the studs to jump in the boat. This is the expectation and always will be. It’s why Mario allegedly gutted the staff and replaced them with elite, hungry recruiters. It’s what he told all the fans when we went 5-7 and to be patient while we bring in elite player after elite player.

If anyone wants to chime in with more data or opinions/questions, feel free. I’m an analytics junkie and love lookin this ish up.

Show us results Mario. It’s in there, it’s time to close.
I want to preface this by saying this is going to be another long, data-filled thread 🚨🚨

It’s not going to be pretty - in fact I think it’ll be pretty divisive. But it’s a message board, and people are allowed to formulate their own opinions, to which I look forward to seeing what people think of this. A lot of the information I will post below, will be copied from previous posts I made concerning the following: current blue-chip players committed, summer commitment %, how often they stick, and traditional recruiting powerhouses that haven’t kicked into gear (such as us).

I see a lot of posters and insiders now saying that the season will dictate how our class finishes. A few have alluded to us whiffing on kids. Well, let’s let’s start off with the number of top247 composite kids (original had just 247 kids) currently committed to a school.

23 of the top 50 are committed (46%)
49 of the top 100 are committed (49%)
76 of the top 150 are committed (50.6%)
107 of the top 200 are committed (53.5%)
141 of the top 250 are committed (56.4%)

There are also 11 kids in the top 247 committing between today and July 8th (there’s some more scheduled after that date as well). Moreover, there are 13 additional 4-star players committing between those dates. I didn’t do the calculations on all 4 and 5 stars because this first rankings update in a few weeks will probably see the most movement; however I thought it was a safe bet that 95% of the current top 250 kids will stay in the top 450 (all 4 and 5 stars).

So we see that 56.4% are currently committed, and by July 8th (not counting the ones that just pop without a set date between now and the aforementioned date), 60.8% of them will be committed to a school. We’re seeing more summer commitments than ever. Cribby alluded to this a while back.

But WeBallinBoyz, who cares about summer rankings. You’re just being an impatient, greedy star *****. And there’s always the power of the flip once we have a great season!

Well yes, maybe I’ve been a bit impatient the last 2-3 days despite reminding myself that July and August are still to come. Of course guys are going to get flipped, and I reckon we will have some of those. We did it with Collins and Horton last year, and also experienced losses of Lew, Cormani and Antoine.

But why am I so overly concerned about the next six-ish weeks? Because the data shows kids don’t flip as often as you think. Josh Pate alluded to a 90% retention rate on July commits on one of his shows, so I was curious as to see if that really was the case. I was expecting somewhere in the 70% range.

I took a look at all four and five stars from the ‘23 recruiting class on the 247 composite (450-ish kids) and churned out these numbers concerning blue-chip commitment months and when (or if) they flipped.

April: 29/36 (80.56%)
May: 21/27 (77.78%)
June: 62/75 (82.67%)
July: 97/120 (80.3%)
August: 50/57 (87.2%)

Total = 259/315 (82.2%)

So it’s not 90%, but it’s above 80…Surprisingly, 27 of the top 450 ish kids committed in 2021, and 23 of them stayed committed (82.2%). Similarly, 29 of the top 450 ish kids committed in January, February, or March of 2022; 24 stayed committed (82.8%). A bit of a preconceived notion that accepting earlier commits results in more de-commitments.

So we see 82.2% of blue-chips that commit between April and August stick. But, there’s some caveats to the 56 that de-committed in this timeframe…

Stanford and Cincinnati experienced coaching changes; two players from the Cardinal de-committed to rival Pac-12 schools (Utah and USC, improvements), and six Bearcats in the top 450 upon Fickell’s departure (to various schools, all improvements).
There were three obvious improvements in competition, with players backing out of commitments to Northwestern, Arkansas St and Vandy to join Oregon, Auburn and LSU (respectively). We’re now down to 45 true de-commits, and we haven’t even scratched the surface of the Colorado saga or other unique 2023 examples.

So…yeah. My numbers may be off by a couple kids, but ven factoring in some human error…Kids commit in the summer, and a vast majority stick. To think we’ll jump from (for example) an 18th-ranked class and flip errybody is completely biased. FSU and TCU both had great seasons, and yet aren’t seeing a sizable increase in commits. Success on the field doesn’t necessarily = ‘croots.

Last thing I want to leave everyone with are some teams that, like us, are just sitting back and getting ready to take off recruiting-wise.

#8 USC - 13 commits (10 four-stars, 3 3-stars)
#11 Tennessee - 14 commits (9 four-stars, 5 three-stars)
#12 Clemson - 12 commits (2 five-stars, 8-four stars, 2 3-stars)
#13 SCar - 12 commits (8 four-stars, 5 3-stars)
#24 Texas A&M - 11 commits (7 4-stars, 4 3-stars)
#28 Miami - 13 commits (3 4-stars, 10 3-stars)
#32 Alabama - 8 commits (3 5-stars, 4 4-stars, 1 3-star)
#44 Auburn - 8 commits (6 4-stars, 2 3-stars)
#45 Oklahoma - 8 commits (5 4-stars, 3 3-stars)
#54 Texas - 7 commits (5 4-stars, 2 3-stars)

I didn’t even mention FSU, who sits at #21 nationally (11 commits) because if THEY finish above us in recruiting…someone needs to be held accountable.

The allure of Mario included how tough his teams are and solid trench play, sure….but it’s the sheer recruiting power and success in that department that really sold a lot of people on here. If in Year 2, we’re already making excuses as to why we’re not raking in elite talent and saying “wait for games”…then what are we doing? Isn’t that the same thought process with Manny, Richt, Golden, Shannon?

Again, that last sentence is just food for thought and something to keep in the back of your head if the stars are lagging behind. It’s not me throwing in the towel and it’s not me comparing Mario to those three buffoons + a sick and burnt out Richt. It’s still June. But July is here, then it’ll be August…then it’s time to play games.

It’s time for the studs to jump in the boat. This is the expectation and always will be. It’s why Mario allegedly gutted the staff and replaced them with elite, hungry recruiters. It’s what he told all the fans when we went 5-7 and to be patient while we bring in elite player after elite player.

If anyone wants to chime in with more data or opinions/questions, feel free. I’m an analytics junkie and love lookin this ish up.

Show us results Mario. It’s in there, it’s time to close.
The only think I would semi push back is the de commit part is hard to quantify. 21 and 22 are very different from this year. Specifically the increased emphasis and summer official visits. Hate to beat the dead horse but NIL is there too. Also, now the increase on no OV limit.

Not disagreeing, but I think it is hard to quantify the de commit part considering there are so many factors and they are changing every year. I think it will trend to more kids de commuting every year.
 
And I'm not saying we should be 15/19 or something like that either. It's just clear that fences are not mended, locals don't trust this staff, etc. Its looking clearly like this was not the instant recruiting fix many hoped for.

I think if you take out the extreme slurpers and extreme mopes, polled everyone in between, the majority knew that while recruiting in general would instantly get better under Mario, local SF recruiting was going to take some time, investment, and winning.

That said, your point is taken that 1/19 aint good so far. I’ll judge harsher after signing day and I see the final results.

Mario pulled off a recruiting miracle with that 22 class in the few weeks he had. Last year was an enormous success. Lets see what he can do here. Things will become more clear over the next few weeks. Unfortunately some of it wont come together or fizzle out until we play some games, which is partly Marios fault for that dogpile of **** all the recruits saw last year.
 
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Signing elite QBs and WRs is going to take improvement by this upcoming season’s offense. Last year left too much of a sour taste. Mario might be able to sell ice to eskimos but what sales pitch is he supposed to use after the 2022 debacle? Yes, new OC, a healthy TVD, and improved OL. Great. If I were a recruit I would need to see the offense improve on the field, first.

And as @DMoney wrote, Smith and other elite WRs may want to be Canes but are making business decisions. Got to see the new product before buying.
 
I think if you take out the extreme slurpers and extreme mopes, polled everyone in between, the majority knew that while recruiting in general would instantly get better under Mario, local SF recruiting was going to take some time, investment, and winning.

That said, your point is taken that 1/19 aint good so far. I’ll judge harsher after signing day and I see the final results.

Mario pulled off a recruiting miracle with that 22 class in the few weeks he had. Last year was an enormous success. Lets see what he can do here. Things will become more clear over the next few weeks. Unfortunately some of it wont come together or fizzle out until we play some games, which is partly Marios fault for that dogpile of **** all the recruits saw last year.
Last year’s class was bolstered by two 5* OL. This being a weak class across the country for OL we may not get a position-based ranking bump unless Mario snags a few whales on the DL. Which he may very well do.
 
Interesting insight that 82% of croots stay committed to current school (higher w/o coaching changeover)

Bottom line, class is a lot of 3 star / borderline 4 star kids. I trust Mario/Zo to eval so i would expect more of these 3 stars to pan out than Golden/Richt/Manny 3 star kids but if we dont land some big 5 stars soon, this is gonna be very meh class.
 
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Last year’s class was bolstered by two 5* OL. This being a weak class across the country for OL we may not get a position-based ranking bump unless Mario snags a few whales on the DL. Which he may very well do.
This year we never we're gonna land a bunch more 5 star OL. It was all about the Dline from the start. Land 2-3 Five Star D-Line or class is a bust (for what we pay Mario and considering crooting is his entire forte / only shot to build us into a champion)
 
And I'm not saying we should be 15/19 or something like that either. It's just clear that fences are not mended, locals don't trust this staff, etc. Its looking clearly like this was not the instant recruiting fix many hoped for.
Clown…
 
1 out of 19. O-N-E. This isn't my 1st year watching college football man. I know what it looks like when a class currently sucks. Maybe that changes, and I will praise Mario should he start reeling them in. But all of this talk of whales while it's mostly a mixed bag of maybe is silly. Call a spade a spade. Right now, we aren't in a good spot, we need a lot to start breaking our way and soon. That's never where you want to be.
Truth
while we’re getting good feelings and vibes
Other teams are getting cbs for the same players
 
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