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why does everyone say vt will beat us this year

DTP said:
Because the trendy media choice this season is “not falling for Miami again”.

The truth is, it would take incredibly bad luck and/or serious injuries for Miami not to improve on last season’s record. We’re talking about a team that lost 5 games by 7 or less. Compared to just two wins by 7 or less. Statistically, these thing tend to even out over time. (Just like all the narrow wins in 2017 became losses in 2018)

So, even if the team doesn’t improve (hard to believe it won’t) they’d still be in line for 1-2 more wins this season based off averages alone.
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The football gods are not kind to teams that don't play mentally tough. Teams with a low football IQ find ways to shoot themselves in the foot in unpredictable ways. The odds never seem to even out.

We have to start playing smarter, then things will start turning in our favor.
 
RightSaidFred said:
Maybe we were lucky to lose those 5 games by only 7 points. Luck can go both ways.

I think you’re right that we’ll win more games than last year, but it will be because we’ve improved as a football team. Your luck argument is just flawed IMO.
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Net close wins/losses is a metric used by a lot of prognosticators to predict a team's win/loss total. It's not 100% perfect because you're still predicting the future but it's pretty consistent over larger sample sizes. It's very uncommon for a team to have a bunch of close wins year after year just like it's very uncommon for a team to have a bunch of close losses on a year to year basis. It happens, but rarely. The fact is most teams will eventually return to the mean over a large sample size of games. The really great teams tend to have large margins of victory and the really bad teams tend to have large margins of defeat. A majority of teams are in the 5-8 win range and often play in a lot of close games. Any time you see a team win 10-11 games but they have a low average margin of victory it's almost a given they will not be as good the next season. There's always a measure of luck involved in any game. The difference is, one or two lucky bounces won't make a difference in a game where one team is up by 40 but they could totally impact the game if one team is only up by 7 or 3.

Now, just because you lost a bunch of close games the previous year doesn't mean you'll be a good team the next year, just marginally luckier. That's why I said it would be a 1-2 game difference.
 
KrazyCane said:
VaTech kicked our *** last year.... I dont know the name of that dual threat QB they had out there embarrassing us, but he’s a problem.
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By duel threat, do you mean a QB that completes just as many passes to the opposing team as he does to our team? Lol
 
NorthEastCane said:
The football gods are not kind to teams that don't play mentally tough. Teams with a low football IQ find ways to shoot themselves in the foot in unpredictable ways. The odds never seem to even out.

We have to start playing smarter, then things will start turning in our favor.
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Nah they just need to play better football. If they played better, they'd have bigger leads and lucky bounces wouldn't affect the outcome of games. If you try to rely on winning close games year after year, you're setting yourself up for inconsistent performances.
 
KrazyCane said:
VaTech kicked our *** last year.... I dont know the name of that dual threat QB they had out there embarrassing us, but he’s a problem.
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Virginia Tech did not kick our *** last year. I've played, coached and watch this football for a very long time. I've never seen a team claw it's way back from a large deficit and the kicker miss an extra point for what would have given his team the lead. That kid deflated the entire stadium and his team and we folded like a cheap suit.
 
Zombie-Cane said:
By duel threat, do you mean a QB that completes just as many passes to the opposing team as he does to our team? Lol
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If I were to tell you two teams played and team A had: 563 yards of offense and 27 first downs and team B had 337 yards of offense and 17 first downs, who would you have thought won that game?

Turnovers are a *****. Especially when you have 5 and the other team has none.
 
We should've beat VT last year even after being down 28-0. Do they even have enough players left after all the defections?
 
DTP said:
Nah they just need to play better football. If they played better, they'd have bigger leads and lucky bounces wouldn't affect the outcome of games. If you try to rely on winning close games year after year, you're setting yourself up for inconsistent performances.
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Teams that don't play smart, don't play better football. They don't build bigger leads. They don't take advantage of opportunities when that happen. They tend to get in more nail bitters down the starch and they tend to lose those.

They are the ultimate in inconsistency.
 
NorthEastCane said:
Teams that don't play smart, don't play better football. They don't build bigger leads. They don't take advantage of opportunities when that happen. They tend to get in more nail bitters down the starch and they tend to lose those.

They are the ultimate in inconsistency.
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Yeah but what do you mean by "play smart"? Do you mean executing better? Catching passes instead of dropping them? Blocking better? That's what I meant by "play better football". I mean, if "football IQ" was what won championships, Duke and Stanford would be playing for the title every year.
 
DTP said:
Yeah but what do you mean by "play smart"? Do you mean executing better? Catching passes instead of dropping them? Blocking better? That's what I meant by "play better football". I mean, if "football IQ" was what won championships, Duke and Stanford would be playing for the title every year.
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Not at all. Don't confuse football IQ with have book smarts. Catching passes, making blocks is more physical than mental.

The difference is similar to being academically intelligent versus exhibiting common sense. Football IQ has to do with continually being aware of changing game situations, reacting quickly and making appropriate decisions. It's usually the difference between who wins and who loses the close games. The team that consistently makes the right moves, wins the most games.

It's one of the things that JJ recruited for that's often overlooked. He stated he recruited for speed and intelligence, they were the two thing you can't coach. The intelligence he was referring to was football IQ. B. Kosar, M. Irvin, R. Lewis, J. Vilma, K. Dorsey and E. Reed had it. Who has it on the current roster. If it's lacking, that's were the coaching has to step up provide it until they get it.
 
I don't give a **** what the "experts" say. That being said, it is easy to understand where they are coming from considering how Miami has been the past 15 years.
 
We could easily lose to LOU., VT, UNC, CLEM. and WF if we don't play up to our standard and play focused.
So I can easily see how a lot of people are picking VT at Blacksburgh to be a loss.
I sure hope not.
 
Some people haven't forgot how pathetic we were last year. We lost to VT last year. Besides King we're pretty much the same team as last year although the program is on a high from recruiting and a good QB.
flyguy said:
I don't see Virginia tech beating us this year, esp after losing bud foster and all the other problems vt has. i still dont understand why everybody has us losing to them.
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Some people haven't forgot how pathetic we were last year. We lost to VT last year. Besides King we're pretty much the same team as last year although the program is on a high from recruiting and a good QB. Believe it or not I think VT's defense will better without Bud.
 
Ksoze8 said:
Some people haven't forgot how pathetic we were last year. We lost to VT last year. Besides King we're pretty much the same team as last year although the program is on a high from recruiting and a good QB.

Some people haven't forgot how pathetic we were last year. We lost to VT last year. Besides King we're pretty much the same team as last year although the program is on a high from recruiting and a good QB. Believe it or not I think VT's defense will better without Bud.
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This. The team is largely similar aside from Lashlee + King. Most of us believe they should win us 3-5 more games alone, but who knows.

Did anyone think Enos would go down as the worst OC in Miami history? Even his biggest haters when hired didnt see that one coming...

Football is crazy. Put up or shut up on the field, we suck until we prove everyone wrong. Plain and simple.
 
Until further notice we are still the team that got beat by FIU, thats why. Best hope that after Thursday there will be some different opinions.
 
dolpterry said:
Until further notice we are still the team that got beat by FIU, thats why. Best hope that after Thursday there will be some different opinions.
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Friday will be no different. At best the story line will be "Miami beats up on G5 school". It won't change until after the first month. Beat, Louie and F$U, look good against Clemson, thing will start to change … maybe.

Even going into the Rose Bowl, with the 2001 team, people were saying we didn't beat anyone, our streak wasn't legitimate. If that team didn't get props, forget about it. Just go out and win, who care what anyone thinks.
 
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