forums

Who will be the better QB on 8/31 -- Ward or Mertz?

jakeman1 said:
I like Miami's OL vs Florida's DL more than Florida's OL against Miami's DL. The match ups seem to favor Miami on both sides of the ball. Miami has DL and OL that would fit on any SEC team.
Click to expand...
Thats where games are really won and lost. As long as we dominate the line of scrimmage we will come out with the win.
 
Advertisement
JayCane20 said:
And adding to my point above... Ward was 11th best in the country according to PFF in his attempts on throws 10+ yards. Graded over a 93 in those throws.

Also, he was 2nd best in America behind Nix on throws that he got out in under 2.5 seconds.

Mertz had the 4th lowest avg depth of target in the country and was 119th in passing grade. Ward made 24 big time throws and Mertz made 15 (9 went to Pearsall who is gone and wasn't replaced).

Mertz data and stats are in his current scheme with personnel that is noticeably worse and then with Ward you get to take those 2022 and 2023 data sets and project them out to an entirely new scheme with upgraded personnel and all positions. Drastic upgrades when you go from the 95th ranked OL in sack % to 15th ranked and the 131st ranked rushing offense to the 20th ranked rushing offense. And those numbers are more drastic because you added to that rushing offense with a RB that averages over 6 ypc

None of that even considers the WR talent upgrade with 3 guys on the Biletnikoff watch list and a scheme that I, and most others, would agree caters better to his skill set to both make quick throws under 2.5 seconds, and a desire to throw it down field at times. His OL in pass pro is not only improving in sack % but gave the last QB one of the longest times to throw in the pocket a year ago versus Wazzu giving Ward one of the shortest avg time to throw in the country before getting pressured. Both tackles return, the best guard returns, and you're deeper on the OL, as well as returning and NFL caliber TE that didn't play a year ago.

Ward went off the rails under pressure and when he tried to play hero ball. He doesn't have either of those concerns here. When he does have to improvise.. I think it would be hard to find to better improv WRs in the country than Restrepo and George. Especially Restrepo. I have never seen a WR better when the play breaks down working back to your QB and getting open and making acrobatic catches. Berrios was very similar in that area and bailed Rosier out many times.
Click to expand...
Great post.

To me Mertz isn't likely to mess up much. He's just not a risk taker. And I think he has a decently high floor. So yeah he could statistically look good. I mean I wouldn't be surprised if he ended the game with a like a 70% comp%... Is that a stat I give a **** about? No. But it is a stat that CAN make it look like you were better and it isn't your fault for losing. To me he's very much of a he'll do everything you need inside of 15 yards, but likely isn't going to be able to make plays on his own. And in general that is fine. If WE had Mertz I'd be incredibly confident going into this season for us. In fact if Emory can basically be like a Mertz, I think that'd be a great outcome - you just want more downfiled ability and willingness to take those plays, and try to create a little more.

The good news for us is downfield pass coverage may be our biggest weakness as things stand today. Certainly our biggest question imo. So hopefully he doesn't get more agressive for us. If we just keep their passing game contained, and shut down their run game (helps their best RB is likely out), our DLine will eventually eat and make game winning plays/sacks....
 
Last edited:
If our DL is as good as advertised and UF’s OL is as mediocre as advertised, he won’t have the opportunity to do anything big. And they have 1 guy on the outside who actually is worrisome. They gave up 39 sacks last year, did they get better on the OL? They lost their 1 RB and the RB who replaces him is out. They have unproven guys at RB so I imagine we bring the heat often and Kiko/DL feast on the OL/RB not picking up blitzes all that well.

I do think Mertz is a pretty **** solid college QB. I just don’t think they have the supporting cast
 
If history rhymes, then CIS ****ting on Mertz all offseason guarantees he'll go full late LSU Joe Burrow on 8/31.
 
BigDikDaddyFromCincinnati said:
I think we are going to steamroll these MFers. Yep, I'm drunk on Kool Aid, but it's what I think.

To bring it to the topic, UF's OL is banged up, effed up, and overall just not that good. Meanwhile, everyone believes our DL is top 10 in the nation, if not best in the nation. How is Mertz going to be able to do much of anything, assuming we can generate pressure with our front four?

Ward by a landslide. Canes win by 20+.
Click to expand...
If true, would love to see a reverse Gator Flop at the end of the game. Remind these f**ks we never forget, or forgive. Shove this memory up their As**s. Go Canes
 
Groz73Cane said:
If true, would love to see a reverse Gator Flop at the end of the game. Remind these f**ks we never forget, or forgive. Shove this memory up their As**s. Go Canes
Click to expand...
I would much rather the team drop a juicy deuce on the big gator logo at midfield after we whoop that ***, then use their gatorade towels to wipe our azzes clean.
Just an idea.

Go Canes!
 
Advertisement
TheOriginalCane said:
Nope.

This is bull****. You spit out a lot of numbers with zero context.

First, Mertz was #26 in yards per game. Look who was #4. Look who is #36.

Second, you bragged about Mertz's yards per ATTEMPT, which was even worse for Mertz than his yards per game ranking. In this metric, Mertz (#39) is lower than TVD and barely above Cam Ward (#47).

Third, on interception ratio, Mertz (#5) is only slightly ahead of Ward (#17).

Fourth, as I've stated a million times, "yards per attempt" is one of the ****tiest metrics on the planet. It favors Checkdown Charlies like Graham Mertz, and it ignores the impact of things like throwaways and pass-interference-incompletions. Yards per CATCH is the much more impactful metric, and here Mertz plummets to #79 (11.1 yards per catch), while Ward is at #66 (11.6 yards per catch).

The reality is that Ward attempts (and makes) bigger plays. He just does. I'm not going to sit here and say that Mertz is terrible, but we've now seen multiple Gator fans (@flagator86 and whoever @grover talked to) try to tell us how Mertz suffered from all of these short behind-the-line-of-scrimmage passes, but then they still try to take credit for his gaudy completion percentage. You can't have it both ways.

Reading ALL of the stats, in context, yields the correct answer. Mertz was a game manager who benefited from making a LOT of short passes. When he went downfield, his completion percentage plummeted and he didn't make many big plays. I've already shown that his 5 longest completions all year yielded ONE touchdown. So that leaves you with 19 dink-and-dunk touchdowns.

With a healthy and energetic Miami front 7, I don't think that Mertz will do a lot of damage against us, unless his receivers turn
Click to expand...
TheOriginalCane said:
Nope.

This is bull****. You spit out a lot of numbers with zero context.

First, Mertz was #26 in yards per game. Look who was #4. Look who is #36.

Second, you bragged about Mertz's yards per ATTEMPT, which was even worse for Mertz than his yards per game ranking. In this metric, Mertz (#39) is lower than TVD and barely above Cam Ward (#47).

Third, on interception ratio, Mertz (#5) is only slightly ahead of Ward (#17).

Fourth, as I've stated a million times, "yards per attempt" is one of the ****tiest metrics on the planet. It favors Checkdown Charlies like Graham Mertz, and it ignores the impact of things like throwaways and pass-interference-incompletions. Yards per CATCH is the much more impactful metric, and here Mertz plummets to #79 (11.1 yards per catch), while Ward is at #66 (11.6 yards per catch).

The reality is that Ward attempts (and makes) bigger plays. He just does. I'm not going to sit here and say that Mertz is terrible, but we've now seen multiple Gator fans (@flagator86 and whoever @grover talked to) try to tell us how Mertz suffered from all of these short behind-the-line-of-scrimmage passes, but then they still try to take credit for his gaudy completion percentage. You can't have it both ways.

Reading ALL of the stats, in context, yields the correct answer. Mertz was a game manager who benefited from making a LOT of short passes. When he went downfield, his completion percentage plummeted and he didn't make many big plays. I've already shown that his 5 longest completions all year yielded ONE touchdown. So that leaves you with 19 dink-and-dunk touchdowns.

With a healthy and energetic Miami front 7, I don't think that Mertz will do a lot of damage against us, unless his receivers turn into YAC beasts.



View attachment 298763

View attachment 298764

View attachment 298766

View attachment 298767
Click to expand...

The only thing that matters is the comparison between Mertz and Ward.

You say all the context, bull**** blah blah then list their yards per completion right in the same ballpark.

Anyone would put their money on Ward over Mertz in this game, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility Mertz just takes care of the ball better and Ward fumbles or has a few turnovers. Just not in the “No CHaNCE NOt EVen CLose Bro” camp. Seen too many games play out
 
Last edited:
I expect to get 2 of our D unjustly sent of game for targeting the QB. But we roll the gators in a death roll
 
Jump out to an early lead and you’ll see how good or bad Mertz really is. He isn’t capable of being Superman like Ward is.

With that being said, who is better in next week’s game, depends on Shannon Dawson.
 
Advertisement
88 said:
The only thing that matters is the comparison between Mertz and Ward.

You say all the context, bull**** blah blah then list their yards per completion right in the same ballpark.

Anyone would put their money on Ward over Mertz in this game, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility Mertz just takes care of the ball better and Ward fumbles or has a few turnovers. Just not in the “No CHaNCE NOt EVen CLose Bro” camp. Seen too many games play out
Click to expand...


All of that is fine, I don't have a problem with "wait and see", but the praise of Mertz is just a bit much.

Again, I don't think he is bad, he has talent. BUT, when even THE GATOR FANS are talking about how many touch-passes he got credit for last year, then you have to at least acknowledge that his "accuracy" is over-inflated.

I don't expect a lot of interceptions for a guy who doesn't throw downfield. As for Cam's fumbles, that's a fair comment. But on the INTs, I'm not worried.
 
88 said:
I think y'all have been selling Mertz short. Not saying i'd rather have Mertz but he's certainly capable of outplaying Ward at home.

He was around top 25 in yards a game last year, with a higher yards per attempt than Ward while being extremely efficient with the ball and avoiding turnovers.

Ward did have significantly more attempts than Mertz, which will bring down the yards per attempt.

Ward had no one on a ****** Washington State team, Mertz played a really tough SEC schedule on a mediocre team.

Mertz was 41st in attempts and 38th in yards per attempt, so that doesn't really paint this picture of quarterback only able to throw 4 yards check downs all game off play action.

Based on last season...If Mertz manages the game well, and is efficient with the ball and Ward fumbles a couple times he can easily have the better game.

But really the wild card here is if Ward just completely explodes with talent, protection and a running game around him and blows the doors off the league this year. That seems to be the feeling from inside the program. We'll see, that's where my money is anyway.
Click to expand...
Mertz also had a 1rd NFL wideout Pearsall who is gone plus his release valve Etienne who took his talents to Athens. Trey Wilson is good, but the receiving threats are down year on year and I’d expect that Mertz will regress a bit too.
 
calinative umstudent said:
Click to expand...



I realize you're not the person who posted it, but that is a horrendous graphic comparison.

I've already discussed why Yards per ATTEMPT is a **** statistic.

And two of the other statistics involve PRESSURE. Which may be greater or lesser depending on your line and/or WRs. It's not fair to express such things as percentages when you may have a crappy line or WRs who struggle to get open.

Third down success is a valid measure (Ward has the better stat). The completion percentage 15 yards downfield stat is...questionable...it may have a very small sample size...it just depends...

Again, the key here, at least with what we know about THOSE TWO quarterbacks, would be INTs. Tyler killed us last year with bad/untimely INTs.
 
Back
Top