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Who will be the better QB on 8/31 -- Ward or Mertz?

We know **** well that Guidry is fully aware of what Mertz and Billy are good at. Blitzing probably won’t help much if Mertz is going to get the ball out quick. With what he has at his disposal, I expect to see all kinds of different fronts and alignments from Guidry.
 
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And adding to my point above... Ward was 11th best in the country according to PFF in his attempts on throws 10+ yards. Graded over a 93 in those throws.

Also, he was 2nd best in America behind Nix on throws that he got out in under 2.5 seconds.

Mertz had the 4th lowest avg depth of target in the country and was 119th in passing grade. Ward made 24 big time throws and Mertz made 15 (9 went to Pearsall who is gone and wasn't replaced).

Mertz data and stats are in his current scheme with personnel that is noticeably worse and then with Ward you get to take those 2022 and 2023 data sets and project them out to an entirely new scheme with upgraded personnel and all positions. Drastic upgrades when you go from the 95th ranked OL in sack % to 15th ranked and the 131st ranked rushing offense to the 20th ranked rushing offense. And those numbers are more drastic because you added to that rushing offense with a RB that averages over 6 ypc

None of that even considers the WR talent upgrade with 3 guys on the Biletnikoff watch list and a scheme that I, and most others, would agree caters better to his skill set to both make quick throws under 2.5 seconds, and a desire to throw it down field at times. His OL in pass pro is not only improving in sack % but gave the last QB one of the longest times to throw in the pocket a year ago versus Wazzu giving Ward one of the shortest avg time to throw in the country before getting pressured. Both tackles return, the best guard returns, and you're deeper on the OL, as well as returning and NFL caliber TE that didn't play a year ago.

Ward went off the rails under pressure and when he tried to play hero ball. He doesn't have either of those concerns here. When he does have to improvise.. I think it would be hard to find to better improv WRs in the country than Restrepo and George. Especially Restrepo. I have never seen a WR better when the play breaks down working back to your QB and getting open and making acrobatic catches. Berrios was very similar in that area and bailed Rosier out many times.
 
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JayCane20 said:
Ward went off the rails under pressure and when he tried to play hero ball. He doesn't have either of those concerns here. When he does have to improvise.. I think it would be hard to find to better improv WRs in the country than Restrepo and George. Especially Restrepo. I have never seen a WR better when the play breaks down working back to your QB and getting open and making acrobatic catches. Berrios was very similar in that area and bailed Rosier out many times.
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Not to mention when you play on a bad team you want to try and do it all and playing from behind you are playing right into a defense knowing you have to pass to catch up or keep up in shootouts.


Now he is going to have some time, more weapons and running backs that can make defenses stay honest. Plus we hopefully are playing with a lead in most games.
 
Ward tryna get top pick first round money.. this a two blimp money game for him.. time to get paid

money GIF
 
grover said:
I'm bored, and since we have no news out of camp, I figured I'd get you guys all fired up. So here it is:

The host of Locked on Gators took time off as an extra on Swamp People to stake out a claim that Mertz will be the better QB in game 1 even if Ward has more NFL potential.

His first argument is that Ward coughs up the ball 3 times a game across fumbles and interceptions, whereas Mertz does so less than 1 time a game. He acknowledges that Mertz is a game manager, but refutes the "Checkdown Charlie" nickname, by citing the statistics that average depth of target was 6.7 yards for Merz vs. 7.7 yards for Ward, and that if you take away behind LOS passes throws, that increases to 10.9 for Ward vs. 11.4 for Merz.



Do you buy that argument?
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No.

First of all, the stats are wonky. Ward had a lot more attempts, so if you tinker with Mertz's numbers, it will have a more profound impact.

Second, this whole "eliminate the passes behind the line of scrimmage" nonsense...would ALSO reduce Mertz's accuracy percentage...would ALSO reduce Mertz's yardage...and actually PROVES that Mertz IS INDEED "Checkdown Charlie", if such a high percentage of your passes and yardage are...you know....passes behind the line of scrimmage.

Third, to use an extreme example...if Mertz completed 100 passes, and 99 of them were "behind the line of scrimmage", while one of them was a 75 yard touchdown, then YES, his yards per target would skyrocket to 75 yards per catch, but that would NOT suddenly make him a great "downfield passer". That, again, would be statistical PROOF that he is "Checkdown Charlie".

Here's the thing. I've shown this on other threads, so I'll sum up. First, we have proven that Mertz's VOLUME of downfield throws was very low. Second, we have proven that Mertz's ACCURACY on downfield throws was atrocious. Furthermore, his volume of total passes is not enough that you have a grouping of "long passes" which tells a story, and then another grouping of "behind the LOS passes" which fudges up the statistics of this fine, fine downfield thrower. This is just insanity.

I had this conversation with @flagator86 on the Gator Tears thread, at least related to the way in which Slingblade Billy misused Eugene Wilson's speed. So even if we include the entire receiving corps, let's look at the numbers:

In only 5 of Mertz's 11 games did he have his longest pass go for 40 yards or more.

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1. Utah loss - 40 yard pass to Pearsall
2. McNeese win - 50 yard TD pass to Pearsall
3. South Carolina win - 45 yard pass to Kahleil Jackson
4. Arkansas loss - 41 yard pass to RUNNING BACK Trevor Etienne
5. Missouri loss - 61 yard pass to Pearsall

So of Florida's five longest pass plays of the year, only ONE went for a touchdown.

Which means that NINETEEN of Mertz's 20 TD passes went for much shorter yardage.

It's easy to be ACCURATE, and INTERCEPTION-FREE, and to pile up MODEST YARDAGE and MODEST YARDS PER CATCH when you are "Checkdown Charlie". So if we eliminate the "behing the line of scrimmage passes", feel free to similarly reduce the attempts, completions, accuracy percentage, and yardage.


Sarcastic Season 9 GIF by The Office
 
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IndayArtHauz said:
I buy into the argument that Mertz will be better than this board thinks he is, and will have a narrow window of opportunity on short, quick throws vs our DBs, which he’s proven to be effective with.

I am more confident than most that Mertz will be able to execute their game plan AND will be successful at it to a degree.

But Cam Ward is demonstrably the better all around QB.
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If they can't reasonably run the ball, then Mertz is screwed.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
No.

First of all, the stats are wonky. Ward had a lot more attempts, so if you tinker with Mertz's numbers, it will have a more profound impact.

Second, this whole "eliminate the passes behind the line of scrimmage" nonsense...would ALSO reduce Mertz's accuracy percentage...would ALSO reduce Mertz's yardage...and actually PROVES that Mertz IS INDEED "Checkdown Charlie", if such a high percentage of your passes and yardage are...you know....passes behind the line of scrimmage.

Third, to use an extreme example...if Mertz completed 100 passes, and 99 of them were "behind the line of scrimmage", while one of them was a 75 yard touchdown, then YES, his yards per target would skyrocket to 75 yards per catch, but that would NOT suddenly make him a great "downfield passer". That, again, would be statistical PROOF that he is "Checkdown Charlie".

Here's the thing. I've shown this on other threads, so I'll sum up. First, we have proven that Mertz's VOLUME of downfield throws was very low. Second, we have proven that Mertz's ACCURACY on downfield throws was atrocious. Furthermore, his volume of total passes is not enough that you have a grouping of "long passes" which tells a story, and then another grouping of "behind the LOS passes" which fudges up the statistics of this fine, fine downfield thrower. This is just insanity.

I had this conversation with @flagator86 on the Gator Tears thread, at least related to the way in which Slingblade Billy misused Eugene Wilson's speed. So even if we include the entire receiving corps, let's look at the numbers:

In only 5 of Mertz's 11 games did he have his longest pass go for 40 yards or more.

View attachment 298761


1. Utah loss - 40 yard pass to Pearsall
2. McNeese win - 50 yard TD pass to Pearsall
3. South Carolina win - 45 yard pass to Kahleil Jackson
4. Arkansas loss - 41 yard pass to RUNNING BACK Trevor Etienne
5. Missouri loss - 61 yard pass to Pearsall

So of Florida's five longest pass plays of the year, only ONE went for a touchdown.

Which means that NINETEEN of Mertz's 20 TD passes went for much shorter yardage.

It's easy to be ACCURATE, and INTERCEPTION-FREE, and to pile up MODEST YARDAGE and MODEST YARDS PER CATCH when you are "Checkdown Charlie". So if we eliminate the "behing the line of scrimmage passes", feel free to similarly reduce the attempts, completions, accuracy percentage, and yardage.


Sarcastic Season 9 GIF by The Office
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Not only that but Pearsall was such an integral part of their pass game time and time again. Of the three above only Jackson is on the roster.
 
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OptimusCreampie said:
Honestly **** that dude in the video hes trying to rile you up on purpose for views. Either he’s trolling by not doing his homework or he’s about as smart as he looks.

He thinks Isaiah taylor is starting, was referencing damari brown but mixing his stats up with his brother at fsu now. Says he couldn’t assess Jaden Harris because he’s a no one and hasn’t played when he started and played pretty good against Clemson. Didn’t call Bain a game breaker said since he played football it’s just as easy as having their te hayne follow bane on the los to neutralize him lmao.

Aside from all that bull**** and taking the fan shades off Mertz is a good qb and we shouldn’t underestimate him at home. To answer your question yes can ward will out play him but it won’t be until late second or third until he settles down. The thing is we don’t need to rely on our qb to win this game like they do. We are very good on the ground and air. I would let Shannon cook and hopefully Mario backs off. If I’m a betting man though I’m sure 7/10 of our first plays are runs.
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If Bain went against their TE holy shiiiit. Bain would eat
 
Ward. He's got a good line and plenty of weapons. Will be interesting to see how many yards he can pick up with his feet.
 
88 said:
I think y'all have been selling Mertz short. Not saying i'd rather have Mertz but he's certainly capable of outplaying Ward at home.

He was around top 25 in yards a game last year, with a higher yards per attempt than Ward while being extremely efficient with the ball and avoiding turnovers.

Ward did have significantly more attempts than Mertz, which will bring down the yards per attempt.

Ward had no one on a ****** Washington State team, Mertz played a really tough SEC schedule on a mediocre team.

Mertz was 41st in attempts and 38th in yards per attempt, so that doesn't really paint this picture of quarterback only able to throw 4 yards check downs all game off play action.

Based on last season...If Mertz manages the game well, and is efficient with the ball and Ward fumbles a couple times he can easily have the better game.

But really the wild card here is if Ward just completely explodes with talent, protection and a running game around him and blows the doors off the league this year. That seems to be the feeling from inside the program. We'll see, that's where my money is anyway.
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Nope.

This is bull****. You spit out a lot of numbers with zero context.

First, Mertz was #26 in yards per game. Look who was #4. Look who is #36.

Second, you bragged about Mertz's yards per ATTEMPT, which was even worse for Mertz than his yards per game ranking. In this metric, Mertz (#39) is lower than TVD and barely above Cam Ward (#47).

Third, on interception ratio, Mertz (#5) is only slightly ahead of Ward (#17).

Fourth, as I've stated a million times, "yards per attempt" is one of the ****tiest metrics on the planet. It favors Checkdown Charlies like Graham Mertz, and it ignores the impact of things like throwaways and pass-interference-incompletions. Yards per CATCH is the much more impactful metric, and here Mertz plummets to #79 (11.1 yards per catch), while Ward is at #66 (11.6 yards per catch).

The reality is that Ward attempts (and makes) bigger plays. He just does. I'm not going to sit here and say that Mertz is terrible, but we've now seen multiple Gator fans (@flagator86 and whoever @grover talked to) try to tell us how Mertz suffered from all of these short behind-the-line-of-scrimmage passes, but then they still try to take credit for his gaudy completion percentage. You can't have it both ways.

Reading ALL of the stats, in context, yields the correct answer. Mertz was a game manager who benefited from making a LOT of short passes. When he went downfield, his completion percentage plummeted and he didn't make many big plays. I've already shown that his 5 longest completions all year yielded ONE touchdown. So that leaves you with 19 dink-and-dunk touchdowns.

With a healthy and energetic Miami front 7, I don't think that Mertz will do a lot of damage against us, unless his receivers turn into YAC beasts.



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grover said:
I'm bored, and since we have no news out of camp, I figured I'd get you guys all fired up. So here it is:

The host of Locked on Gators took time off as an extra on Swamp People to stake out a claim that Mertz will be the better QB in game 1 even if Ward has more NFL potential.

His first argument is that Ward coughs up the ball 3 times a game across fumbles and interceptions, whereas Mertz does so less than 1 time a game. He acknowledges that Mertz is a game manager, but refutes the "Checkdown Charlie" nickname, by citing the statistics that average depth of target was 6.7 yards for Merz vs. 7.7 yards for Ward, and that if you take away behind LOS passes throws, that increases to 10.9 for Ward vs. 11.4 for Merz.



Do you buy that argument?
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Miami's offensive line and running game are both a boost for the athletic Cam Ward.

Florida's offensive line will have fits with Miami's front seven, which could be a long day for Graham Mertz.

Mertz is good at holding onto the ball; but he also doesn't do anything overly-exceptional—more of a game manager.

The Canes feel like the more complete team by a bit; the Gators are an SEC team with underachieving talent—that could wake up at some point.

The Swamp is always a tough place to play; 3:30 pm ET kickoff gives Miami time to get a lead and hopefully stay with on as you don't want to be in a close one down the stretch once that fourth quarter kicks in and nightfall is upon us.

If Ward protects the ball and Miami wins the turnover battle; double-digit win for the Canes—27-17 or something to that effect.
 
You know what's hilarious? People who try to tell you that THIS stat is so amazing...while they ALSO try to tell you to ignore all the passes behind the line of scrimmage...

Don't fall for The Gator propaganda...

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JayCane20 said:
I hope we're studying Kentucky and what Brad White and Stoops do to UF because they have owned Napier the last 2 years.

Which is typically 3 down and zone on the backend.
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Very high confidence in Guidry to be prepared to wreak havoc and protect our secondary with more zone than man.
This game I’m a little more concerned about the offense in the beginning, although I do think they will have enough explosive plays to win comfortably.
How long does it take Ward to realize he’s with superior talent and evolve from hero ball mentality to aggressive facilitator/point guard of the offense? That can be hard habit to break. And in that environment.

That said, even if he does go hero ball mentality in the beginning and has a couple missed opportunities, I think Dawson will help settle him in with the playcalling, where the OL and the running game will demoralize them and then Ward will have several explosive plays where he will then settle in and for the rest of the season, it’s going to be glorious.
 
Pentagon Cane said:
Not only that but Pearsall was such an integral part of their pass game time and time again. Of the three above only Jackson is on the roster.
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Yes.

The Gator fans will try to tell you that "Chimere **** from Wisconsin transferred to Florida", as if he is an adequate replacement for Pearsall. Spoiler alert, HE'S NOT.

The Gator fans will try to tell you that Mertz will be so much better in Year 2. But some combination of Slingblade Billy and the players around Mertz are STILL preventing the downfield passing game and "explosives" from being a part of The Gator offense.

The Gator fans will try to tell you that their offensive talent has been upgraded. Meanwhile, they have half of an offensive line, they will not have their two best runners from 2023 to line up against Miami, and they are relying on a talented (but heavily misused) returning WR, a talented transfer who hasn't learned the playbook yet, and another WR transfer who is a former teammate of the QB, but who is not among the five most talented WRs on their roster.

I'll believe in the Gator offense when they actually demonstrate that they have an offense. Until then...

Will Ferrell Lol GIF
 
I think our offense is going to mix it up well, and many will probably think that we are running too much.

With that, our offensive line will have a great game. I think we win this game in the trenches, and Cam doesnt have to put up ridiculous numbers.

Mertz will be fighting for his life out there
 
I expect it from other fanbases but it’s wild to me that so many in this fanbase still don’t seem to realize how good Cam Ward is lol
 
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