I'm a big proponent of exploiting weakness, especially when I'm confident in my entire operation. So, for me, this week is a big Fletcher/Pringle week. Run right at their edges using outside zone and pin & pull. Get all the OL out in space against their smaller front 7.
A&M's weakness on defense is against the run. Their defense is 136th in the country in yards after contact allowed. They're 93rd in missed tackle rate (which obviously correlates to giving up a lot of YAC). They're 32nd in yards before contact, which is better but not great. Now, my concern is, we're not good at this on offense. We're 111th in yards before contact created, and we don't break any tackles. But I still feel like this is a better method of attack than dropping back 40 times against a very good pass rush and creative coach like Elko with 2 weeks to prepare.
It's imperative we stay on schedule. We don't need to be in 3rd and 8 with that crowd going berserk. IMO this has a very good chance to turn into a Mario wet dream game...where we hit them with hammers in the first half and we start to bury them late in the game with our physicality in the run game.
In the throw game, honestly just keep doing what we've been doing. I trust our pass pro to hold up (we are #1 in the country in pressure rate allowed), but they do have good pass rushers, so I want the ball out quick. Their entire defense is completely focused on Toney, and for good reason. And I'm not saying use him as a decoy the entire night, I still want the ball in his hands 10+ times, but if I'm Dawson, I'm finding the most creative way to "show" Toney, and go elsewhere. I want him in motion on almost every play. I want him lined up all over the field. I want him running fake jet sweeps and we hand the ball off going the other way. We're going to have 22 eyes on #10 on every snap, take advantage of that. And I think we NEED to run at least 1-2 bubbles to Toney but fake it and slip a blocker up the sideline on a wheel route. You know their DBs are going to be flying up the field, especially when Toney is on that side. Make them pay by faking a block and getting vertical on the sideline.
But A&M thrives on negative plays. We thrive on not allowing any. It really is a fascinating game. A&M is #1 in America this year in "busted drives", which are drives that end allowing 0 or negative yards. That means they get a lot of negative plays. TFLs, and sacks. If you don't give those up, though, you can get them. IMO they're on the same scale as Pitt and Louisville.
We are better on the OL than they are on the DL. Our strength is pass pro, their strength is rushing the passer. Where I think the game will be won is, who wins "what they're not great at"...meaning, A&M doesn't stop the run very well, and gives up a ton of explosives. But Miami doesn't run it great, and gets very few explosives. Which side wins that match-up, when Miami runs the ball? If we average 5+ yards a carry, we're gonna win. By the way, A&M is 70th in the country in YPC allowed.
giving up 5.5 a clip.
