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What I'm looking for on Friday statistically

TwentySix said:
Gotcha. If that link @MiamisMoperiestMopes posted is legit it lines up with what my eyes are telling me but I haven’t been watching the play clock that close. Mensah just seems like he wants to move a lot quicker than we did last year.

And agree. We have such a talent gap (and a qb that’s not turnover prone) we need to make each individual play matter less all season and keep the pedal down.
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Yeah that's interesting. I'm not sure if it's correct or not but I'm glad he posted it because that's not a site that was on my radar. I'll keep my eye on it, and for sure, if we're going at 21.7 between plays for the first 3 drives of games, I'm thrilled with that. FAU was the fastest team in the country last year, and they were at 21.4. For full games, not just the first 3 drives but still, if we're even close to those low 20 numbers, we're moving WAY faster than last year.
 
NCCanefan said:
PLays per game a very imperfect measure when the offense is scoring from a long ways out and a number of scoring drives with very few plays.
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I agree, and I wasn't using it as any kind of data point other than stress and fatigue. If you face 82 snaps, you face 82 snaps. I don't care if they all go for 1 yard or 80 yards, that's a lot of energy to exert for a defense and you'd think coming back in 6 days, I'm not sure those kids will have their full legs under them for 60 minutes. I agree completely about plays per game from a pace perspective. But having to defend 82 plays is exhausting, period.
 
Want to see:
3 sacks
15 hurries
3 turnovers

The D line and blitzers need to pressure Lopez to help our injury-riddled defensive backfield...
And it's time to finally get some interceptions and recovered fumbles..
 
I just feel like this defense does better against teams that are trying to beat it. When teams come out ****y thinking they are just gonna run thier ish and we have to stop them they get their **** pushed in more often than not.

But...

If a team comes out and takes what the D is designed to give them then they have to be patient and happy with small gains, stay on schedule, play mistake free, and hope one of our elite talents don't make some sort of play to upset even the easy stuff we are giving them.

This can be frustrating to watch as a fan because it looks like we are getting beat out there but it's really just a bet that the opposing team can't stay perfect and won't stay "boring" to quote Dawson. It's really hard to beat teams 5 yards at a time all game without making mistakes.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I know, just win. We got it.

But how you win, and what you do when you win, can give us some clues about the overall trajectory and ceiling of a team. I think we're going to win a national championship this year, and teams have scares all the time, but I don't expect Wake to even look like they belong on the same field with us, at least when we have the ball.

So what am I looking for from a statistical standpoint on Friday night that will make me encouraged we are truly on our way to being one of the very best teams in America?

When we have the football:

- 40+ points -- Only 2 teams averaged 40+ last year (4 if you round up and include Indiana and Utah at 39.5). Our team total is right at about 38. Wake is bad on defense. We need to drop 40 on them, period.
- 3.4+ points per drive -- Mario has talked several times about how the college game is seeing fewer possessions per game compared to prior years. The clock rules have a lot to do with that, but he's expanded on it talking about the need for explosives. This year, Miami has 7 plays of 40+ yards. Last year, in 16 games, we had 14. Explosive plays lead to points, and in games where possessions are limited, you need to score points every drive. 3.4 points per drive is easily a Top 5 mark in the country, I want it on Friday
- 7.0+ yards per play -- A favorite of Shannon Dawson's, in 2024 we led the country with 7.56 yards per play. If this is the best offense in America, and it might be, you go get 7.0+ per play against Wake Forest
- 15 plays of 10+ yards, 6 plays of 20+ yards, 3 plays of 30+ yards. -- Last year, Miami averaged 13.4 plays of 10+ yards, but only 4 plays of 20+ yards, and less than 2 plays of 30+ yards per game. Not good enough. We need to be more explosive.
- Snapping the ball no more than 25 seconds apart -- this one can be skewed if we get up late, but we are WAY too slow on offense. We need to increase the number of plays, and increase the pace. 25 seconds between plays ranked 39th fastest last year, so I'm not looking for some breakneck fast-paced operation, but Miami was 129th in pace last year. Even with Cam in 2024, we were 77th. We have to get much faster.

When Wake has the ball:

- 17 points, max -- Again, context. If we give them a pick six, or some turnover deep, or they have 13 and score a TD with 5 seconds left against walk-ons when its 55-13, then I'll allow it. But our defense cannot allow more than 17 "real" points.
- Less than 4 yards per carry -- Wake has ran it well in their 2 games, they are 18th in the country in yards per carry, at 5.26. They are getting 194 yards per game on the ground. We held Stanford to 3.39, and remember QB sacks are rushing attempts in college football. So we got 0 sacks, meaning that's a true rushing number, 3.39 YPC. It's not skewed because we sacked the quarterback. We need to hold Wake under 4, and make them throw the ball from behind the sticks.
- Less than 55% completions -- This is a big one, so far this year, Wake is completing only 61% of their passes, good for 78th in America. We know our corners are banged up, we also think we'll have a lead in this game and be playing from ahead. So, if they have to throw it 40 times, can we shut it down to the tune of 55% completions? If we do, and hold them under 4 yards a carry, we win by 30.
- 1.50 points per drive or less -- That number usually ranks you about 15th nationally. If we're going to have a national championship defense, we hold Wake Forest to a number that equates to 15th nationally
- 5.0 Yards per play or less -- Again, a number that's about 20th nationally, year over year. I'm not expecting the 85 bears here, but I will feel very good about our defense if we can hold them under 5 a play. Obviously way early in the season, but Wake is 15th right now in yards per play. They got 8.22 against Akron, and 6.04 last week against Purdue. No reason to think we can't be a yard better than Purdue was.

Overall, Wake looks better on offense than they are on defense. I don't think a team like that has much of a chance against us. You're not going to beat us being one-dimensional, and if you do, I think the team who plays us close is one with an elite defense that can at least hold us in check, and a decent offense that can keep a game close. I just don't see being challenged much by a team that ranks 45th in yards per play allowed, and those 2 games were against Akron and Purdue's offenses.

I'll come back on Saturday and check in on how well we hit these, but I want to see Miami take their crowd out very early, let's do exactly what we did against Stanford and score 2 TDs in the first quarter, and drop 40+ on these dudes. They have given up 80% (!!!!!) completions in their first 2 games. EIGHTY. Akron went 28/33 and Purdue went 32/42. Mensah should be having target practice out there.
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An example where they get the ball to start and we go in 20 - 7 at the half expecting to get the ball to put it away to open the 2nd half.
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ScorpionKane1 said:
Did famu or stanford QB look like heisman locks?
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Through G2, Miami's D has given up 21 first downs and 406 yards of offense.

I believe Mensah alone accounted for same production in Q1 vs FAMU.

Panic meter: WATCHING

I believe this is a reasonable and prudent assessment.

On a serious note, we'll see what they do against Wake's QB...I think we're all expecting more domination, fair or not. I still don't have faith in #2 to consistently lock down his man and our LBs aren't known (yet) as great in coverage.

I am encouraged that Heathermann doesn't have a DL cover their #1 WR on go routes, so huge improvement since he arrived.
 
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TwentySix said:
Gotcha. If that link @MiamisMoperiestMopes posted is legit it lines up with what my eyes are telling me but I haven’t been watching the play clock that close. Mensah just seems like he wants to move a lot quicker than we did last year.

And agree. We have such a talent gap (and a qb that’s not turnover prone) we need to make each individual play matter less all season and keep the pedal down.
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We are definitely more tempo to start out the games.. I pay attention to stuff like that as Mensah was high tempo at duke so he is comfortable operating it. Especially after first down we will get lined up quick and go from there.. With soo much subs in game, I would imagine it holds down entire number if just looking at it raw..
 
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