You're not wrong, but just because I know other people don't, these are purely raw numbers. We have only played 4 FBS games. There are only 5 other programs in the country who have only played 4 FBS games as well. But regardless, we know we need to be more explosive on offense.
Especially in the run game. Last year, we averaged 1.75 runs of 20+ yards per game.
This year, we only have 4 in 4 games.
Last year, we had nine runs of 30+ in 12 games.
This year, we have one.
Agreed but while it's very apparent that we need to be more explosive on offense and some of those numbers seem like cause for concern, the raw numbers above are not necessarily surprising for the more discerning among us.
There are many factors that have gone into the numbers above being what they are after our first 5 games(4 FBS games). The bottom line is that this offense is a work in progress and was always going to be an offense that was far more likely to be playing it's best football late in the season(barring injury).
First, we have an entire new cast of WRs and TEs for the most part. Cam Ward was the #1 pick in the NFL Draft and we are replacing our top 6 pass catchers from last year. We have a very experienced and productive QB in Carson Beck but he missed all of spring as he recovered from surgery on his throwing arm.
We had to replace Damien Martinez and while Fletcher and Brown have played very well we have been without Jordan Lyle who won the #1 RB spot in Fall. He's been hurt since the 1st series vs ND in game 1. He is our most complete back and by far the most explosive of the top 3. His return will certainly help over the last half of the season.
We have played 3 of the most talented defenses on our schedule and we have by far played better defenses than any top 25 team in the nation. Couple that with the fact that our run scheme is not something that is a mystery to any of our opponents. We usually run right up the gut and defensive coordinators have had 3 years of film of which to study all of our tendencies.
Our starting center James Brockermeyer is a very good center and he excels in pass protection. However his only knock is in his run blocking that while certainly not terrible, isn't at the level of Lee and Carpenter who came before him. Add the loss of Lyle and our more run centric offense this year and defenses have made it very difficult to gain rushing yards consistently.
Elija Lofton and Jojo Trader who were supposed to be a big part of the offense have both been hurt to start the season. CJ Daniels and Malachi Toney have been excellent but the offense has bogged down at times due to a lack of options in the passing game when Daniels and Toney are covered.
The return of Lyle and Trader plus Lofton getting back to 100% will be a shot in the arm for this offense. In addition to those three, the continued development of Josh Moore could be a major factor. We could also see possible late season contributions from talented freshmen like Daylin Upshaw, Chance Robinson, Luka Gilbert and Brock Schott.
Carson Beck will continue to become more comfortable in this offense and develop more chemistry with Lyle, Lofton, Trader and Moore in addition to what he has currently with Daniels, Toney, Fletcher and Brown. Dawson will also find better more effective ways of using experienced talents like Keelan Marion and Tony Johnson.
Finally, after Louisville, we will experience a steep decline in the quality of defenses this offense will face with squads like Syracuse, SMU, NC State, Stanford and Virginia Tech being truly abysmal.
