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Week 12 Rooting Guide — Path to CFP

Handsome Squidbum said:
Kinda hoping espn is low key telling the playoff committee “we have deals with the sec and acc. Miami gets eyeballs. Name carries weight. No one is tuning in for Duke vs GT in the ACC championship. It actually makes them look like a clown conference for putting a 4 loss Duke in over 2 loss Miami. We’re moving up Miami in the FPI for beating a bad Cuse team because they need to be in the playoffs. Understand what we’re saying?”
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It’s also how other teams that we have already played continue to perform. ND bodied Navy. USF obliterated UTSA. Those wins continue to look better and better.
 
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LA\^/ said:
I know we think committee is retarded but there is a ZERO% chance ND gets ahead of us if we're both 10-2. We have more ranked wins and the head to head. We'll both probably make it and the committee would have to concede and leave out an SEC team

JUST WIN FOR THE LOVE OF GOD
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They are ranked 8 spots ahead of us.

You are using logic rather than looking at what the committee told us.

2-loss ND is in over 2-loss Miami.
 
LA\^/ said:
I agree it helps but to be honest i wouldn't categorize it has a must win for Pitt because the alternative doesn't ruin our chances. It arguably enhances our chances in another way.
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With all due respect, I would rather PASS UP teams 9-15 because they LOSE, without having to trust the CFP Committee to give us a fair shake "by comparing similar 2-loss teams".

**** ND. Let Pitt beat them. No shame in that, so long as we beat Pitt.
 
Just win, also not sure why TX is getting so much love they're *** lol. Got beat by a UF team we slaughtered but whatever. UGA will handle them next week.
 
scrantoncane said:
They are ranked 8 spots ahead of us.

You are using logic rather than looking at what the committee told us.

2-loss ND is in over 2-loss Miami.
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Yep. If someone tells you how they really feel, believe them.

Don't wait until after Thanksgiving for "head-to-head logic" to save us.

Outside of losing to Miami, ND only has a 1-point loss to undefeated aTm. While I HATE "quality losses", that is a much better "quality loss" than losing to Louisville and SMU.
 
Genghis Cane said:
Getting to the playoff will come down to us winning out — I firmly believe that if we take care of business, we’ll get the help we need.

Now, THAT’s A HUGE “IF,” but instead of assuming we’re going 0-3 to end the season, I’m going to stay positive. Gun to my head — do we win out? Absolutely not. But I’m a glutton for punishment, so here we are..

Here are the games to watch next week, along with my assessment on the probability of an upset:

Clemson over Louisville (possible — we only need this for the 10% chance we get to the ACC championship, but it doesn’t matter for an At-Large bid.)

**edit: even if Louisville wins, we’re still fine, but then our path is SMU winning out**

Minnesota over Oregon (unlikely, but not necessary)

Pitt over Notre Dame (possible — WE NEED THIS…BIGGEST GAME OF THE WEEKEND)

Northwestern over Michigan (unlikely, but not necessary. Just want Michigan off our back)

Alabama over Oklahoma (possible — WE NEED THIS)

UCF over Texas Tech (unlikely, but not necessary)

Duke over UVA (possible. Only necessary for ACC race. If Duke loses, it wouldn’t be the worst result. We need them to lose as well, but now we need VT to beat UVA the final week)

Boston College over GT (unlikely, but not necessary)

Iowa over USC (possible — not necessary. But it does get USC off our back)

Florida over Ole Miss (unlikely — also, rooting for UF makes me want to kill myself, but it would help us if they won, although not necessary)

Baylor over Utah (possible — WE NEED THIS)

Georgia over Texas (possible — WE NEED THIS)

TCU over BYU (possible — WE NEED THIS)

USF over Navy (bolsters our resume. We want USF to be the G5 playoff rep and that will happen if they win out.)

Too long, didn’t read rooting guide:

— ND @ Pitt (root for Pitt)
— OU @ Bama (root for Bama)
— UVA @ Duke (root for Duke)
— Iowa @ USC (root for Iowa)
— Utah @ Baylor (root for Baylor)
— Texas @ Georgia (root for Georgia)
— TCU @ BYU (root for TCU)

Of all the games above, we need Pitt, Bama, and Georgia the most this week. I’ll bump this post for next week, but as you all can see….a lot of these outcomes are not far fetched.
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VT has beaten UVA 19 out of the last 20 times

They are literally their *******, no matter how bad VT is they beat them. UVA is finished regardless if Morris is out, they looked horrible last night after he was knocked out

Saying that Trumpycane thinks Duke beats them and then we need Wake or UNC (who’s playing a lot better recently) to grab a win which is possible, Duke is so up and down
 
TheOriginalCane said:
If Miami beats a "better" Pitt (that has quality victories over ND and GaTech), it also helps our case, and helps us to be ranked ahead of Utah. We would be the "best" 2-win team.

I don't have a lot of hope for dislodging any of the current undefeated or 1-loss teams that comprise the Top 8.

MAYBE Oregon loses to USC.
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Trumpycane thinks we don’t want that because then USC jumps us if they beat Oregon unless Iowa beats USC next week
 
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I also agree if we handle business we could be in the playoff. I also do not expect us to win out, this offense is regressing terribly. What I didn’t realize was that ND already played NC State and they play Pitt/Syravuse coming up. So not only did we beat them head to head, but we have the match ups with NC State/Pitt/Syracuse to compare against.
 
TrumpyCane said:
Trumpycane thinks we don’t want that because then USC jumps us if they beat Oregon unless Iowa beats USC next week
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I didn't say I "want it", I'm just pointing out a game that a top 8 team could lose to another ranked team.
 
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Jk. Bigger things in life than canes football but really just want to see this team have some urgency and realize that we still have a shot here and it starts with Mario

Go canes
 
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Even as I type this, I am well aware that this is probably not true sight, but actually hopium, but...

I think we'll go undefeated through the next 3 games. Yes, I realize there's a high chance I'll be eating this post, but what is life for anyway but to reach for the stars. I don't have quite the same feeling about getting into the ACCCHMG or the CFP, but I am cautiously optimistic that we'll go 11-2.

As always, vee zhall zee...
 
filmcane said:
Even as I type this, I am well aware that this is probably not true sight, but actually hopium, but...

I think we'll go undefeated through the next 3 games. Yes, I realize there's a high chance I'll be eating this post, but what is life for anyway but to reach for the stars. I don't have quite the same feeling about getting into the ACCCHMG or the CFP, but I am cautiously optimistic that we'll go 11-2.

As always, vee zhall zee...
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10-2*, unless we get to the ACC title game. That’s possible but far less likely than an At-large bid.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
Yep. If someone tells you how they really feel, believe them.

Don't wait until after Thanksgiving for "head-to-head logic" to save us.

Outside of losing to Miami, ND only has a 1-point loss to undefeated aTm. While I HATE "quality losses", that is a much better "quality loss" than losing to Louisville and SMU.
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And as much as the committee says the timing of losses doesn’t matter, it does. ND lost early. With a freshman QB, so the narrative writes itself.

ND IS a good team and worthy of a playoff spot imo. But head to head should matter. Miami shouldn’t be 18, but bad losses at bad times (including a stand alone game on a Friday night with everyone watching) and here we are.

I heard someone say the committee only ranks teams 3 at a time. Meaning rank 1,2 & 3. Then move on to 4,5&6. And head to head only gets discussed if the teams are in the same bucket. They said that on either the cover 3 podcast or the orange bowl boys. Can’t recall which.

Regardless, ND losing opens up an at-large spot that is ours for the taking if we can win out. So hail Pitt.
 
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