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Week 12 Rooting Guide — Path to CFP

scrantoncane said:
And as much as the committee says the timing of losses doesn’t matter, it does. ND lost early. With a freshman QB, so the narrative writes itself.

ND IS a good team and worthy of a playoff spot imo. But head to head should matter. Miami shouldn’t be 18, but bad losses at bad times (including a stand alone game on a Friday night with everyone watching) and here we are.

I heard someone say the committee only ranks teams 3 at a time. Meaning rank 1,2 & 3. Then move on to 4,5&6. And head to head only gets discussed if the teams are in the same bucket. They said that on either the cover 3 podcast or the orange bowl boys. Can’t recall which.

Regardless, ND losing opens up an at-large spot that is ours for the taking if we can win out. So hail Pitt.
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They only COMPARE three teams at a time. Which, of course, is not what their mission-statement and by-laws say, but whatever.

I understand comparing Teams 1-3, they are all undefeated. But they should then compare THE NEXT FIVE teams, all of whom have 1-loss. The CFP's own description of their role is to compare "similarly situated" teams. Not "every 3 teams".

Compare the undefeated teams. Rank them.

Compare the next 5 teams that have 1-loss. Rank them.

Next, move to the 2-loss teams (including weak 1-loss teams like BYU). Rank them.

It really isn't that difficult. The "every 3 teams" bull**** is just ridiculous.

"Dear lord, please smite down the 7 teams directly ahead of Miami in the polls."

Simple.
 
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LA\^/ said:
Why do we NEED Pitt to beat ND?

I know right now ND is 8 spots ahead of us, but if both teams win out they'll be much closer in the standings and the committee would be forced to put us ahead of them. I don't see a scenario where a 10-2 ND team gets ahead of a 10-2 Miami team. I'd argue ND winning out is beneficial for us
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you want to chance the committee? lol look where we are in the rankings vs ND right now
 
LA\^/ said:
Why do we NEED Pitt to beat ND?

I know right now ND is 8 spots ahead of us, but if both teams win out they'll be much closer in the standings and the committee would be forced to put us ahead of them. I don't see a scenario where a 10-2 ND team gets ahead of a 10-2 Miami team. I'd argue ND winning out is beneficial for us
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You don't see a scenario where a 10-2 ND hers in ahead of us also at 10-2? The committee already gave us that scenario. We're EIGHT spots behind them with a head to head win and identical record.

I don't see a scenario where a 10-2 Miami gets IN over a 10-2 ND.
 
Yoyo423 said:
You don't see a scenario where a 10-2 ND hers in ahead of us also at 10-2? The committee already gave us that scenario. We're EIGHT spots behind them with a head to head win and identical record.

I don't see a scenario where a 10-2 Miami gets IN over a 10-2 ND.
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No way dude that'll be the worst thing i've ever seen
1) We beat them
2) We have more ranked wins. Their best win would be against a mediocre USC team
3) We share 4 opponents on their schedule (NC St, Pitt, Stanford, Syracuse) which should matter if we handle business

There is no way for them to have a better head to head resume than us IFFFF we win out
 
LA\^/ said:
No way dude that'll be the worst thing i've ever seen
1) We beat them
2) We have more ranked wins. Their best win would be against a mediocre USC team
3) We share 4 opponents on their schedule (NC St, Pitt, Stanford, Syracuse) which should matter if we handle business

There is no way for them to have a better head to head resume than us IFFFF we win out
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But that's all true right now, and we're ranked 8 spots behind them.
 
Looking forward to the week 13 thread about how a 3 loss Miami team can get in after Mario gets his shït pushed in by a local QB product he didn’t recruit hard enough.
 
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Yoyo423 said:
But that's all true right now, and we're ranked 8 spots behind them.
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Because we got penalized for playing like **** for 2/3 weeks

I'm talking about at the end of the year, IF we win out, there's no way that'll be the case imo. We'll see i guess. I'll go bat **** crazy if ND gets in and we don't. There just isn't a valid explanation
 
LA\^/ said:
Because we got penalized for playing like **** for 2/3 weeks

I'm talking about at the end of the year, IF we win out, there's no way that'll be the case imo. We'll see i guess. I'll go bat **** crazy if ND gets in and we don't. There just isn't a valid explanation
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The better scenario is that Pitt beats Notre Dame - gets Notre Dame out of the conversation - and then gives us the opportunity for a huge win to end the season.
 
TaylorWalls said:
The better scenario is that Pitt beats Notre Dame - gets Notre Dame out of the conversation - and then gives us the opportunity for a huge win to end the season.
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Definitely agree with that and that's what i'm rooting for. I'm just saying it's more likely ND wins and if they do it's not the worst thing. We'd still be alive
 
IF ND doesn't drop one, we will likely need one or both of Utah (@Baylor, K-State, @ KU) and BYU (TCU, @ Cincy) to lose along the way to clear enough path for us to backdoor our way into an At-Large bid.

that and a Vandy loss @ Tennessee to finish the season probably gets us in the CFP - provided we take care of bidness next 3 weeks

this also assumes losses from OU and Texas down the stretch, which is the expectation given their remaining schedules.
 
I got maybe 10% as ****ed as I usually would when the refs raped Miami in the SMU game...mostly because it looks like the team would lose multiple times anyway. However, if Miami does win out and look good (they won't but still), I think that other 90% of rage will return. I've never seen a team get that ****ed by the refs in my life. Those refs should not only be investigated, but publicly executed.
 
LA\^/ said:
Because we got penalized for playing like **** for 2/3 weeks

I'm talking about at the end of the year, IF we win out, there's no way that'll be the case imo. We'll see i guess. I'll go bat **** crazy if ND gets in and we don't. There just isn't a valid explanation
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That’s just the thing. The CFPC doesn’t have to give a valid explanation. They apply criteria however they see fit. The problem is that their shifting criteria heavily favors the B1G, SEC and Notre Dame, at the expensive of everyone else. That’s how you end up with some people last year seriously trying to argue Bama should have gotten in despite losing 3 of the 9 games they played against real competition, including a late season clunker against OU. Why? Because they had that “good win” against UGA.

I can guarantee you if Miami and ND end up 10-2 there will be real talk about ND getting in over us because the Miami loss was first game of the season and things happen. That’s the kind of reasoning we will never benefit from.
 
BoludoCane21 said:
IF ND doesn't drop one, we will likely need one or both of Utah (@Baylor, K-State, @ KU) and BYU (TCU, @ Cincy) to lose along the way to clear enough path for us to backdoor our way into an At-Large bid.

that and a Vandy loss @ Tennessee to finish the season probably gets us in the CFP - provided we take care of bidness next 3 weeks

this also assumes losses from OU and Texas down the stretch, which is the expectation given their remaining schedules.
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Yup
 
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Gi0logy said:
Looking forward to the week 13 thread about how a 3 loss Miami team can get in after Mario gets his shït pushed in by a local QB product he didn’t recruit hard enough.
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If we win, I’ll be back here same time next week.
 
LA\^/ said:
No way dude that'll be the worst thing i've ever seen
1) We beat them
2) We have more ranked wins. Their best win would be against a mediocre USC team
3) We share 4 opponents on their schedule (NC St, Pitt, Stanford, Syracuse) which should matter if we handle business

There is no way for them to have a better head to head resume than us IFFFF we win out
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1. Doesn't matter.
2. Doesn't matter.
3. Doesn't matter.

Keep ignoring what the CFP Committee does at your own peril.
 
BishopEli said:
The fact that we need nd to lose when we have the head to head, more top 25 wins and the same record is the ultimate in cfb bs, but you're right we do.

All of this will probably happen and then we'll lose to Pitt but like all canes fans I'm a glutton for punishment so bring on the Hope!
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There’s no point in stacking your schedule in the beginning of the year.

Beat up some cupcakes, get our young guys some PT and keep our guys fresh for the end. We keep peaking too early. And I kinda wonder if we’re not wearing down guys like Bain and Mesidor.
 
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