Miami: 5.5 (over -160, under +120)
The over bet is juiced.
It's even higher now: -170 over and +130 under
That essentially means 6 flat, or even 6 with slight juice to the over. 5Dimes -- like many major joints -- doesn't like pushes on future book wagers so they stick it on a half number whenever possible.
I'll stay with what I posted here a couple of weeks ago, that Chris Andrews' online article that generated quite a bit of publicity was too low at 5.5 over -120. I wrote that the applicable math, via a quick glance, looked more like 6 over or 6.5 under. I think that's where this will settle, once more spots get involved.
Notice that 5Dimes is using a 40 cent cut. That's the chicken method, meaning they aren't fully confident in the early numbers but want to put them out there, for early action and some publicity, like the mention in this thread. Other spots will wait until solidification later in the summer and then use a 20 cent cut.
It's a very basic process. Pointspreads and associated money lines are projected for every game on the schedule. Then a formula is applied to arrive at a base over/under. It doesn't have to be perfect. Las Vegas thrives based on three aspects -- power ratings, 11/10, and ***** ups from bettors based on subjectivity and too much decision making. That's it. Any other version is bunk. Sportsbooks sit back and absorb, allowing the bettors to find ways to lose. I have to laugh every time somebody proposes that the town and methodology is ultra sophisticated. That's the simpleton view from afar, wanting to buy into the mystique. If you've ever been directly involved it's remarkable how simple everything is. If Las Vegas has reliable power ratings, they own the edge. Those power ratings do a great job of summarizing a team's default ability. Unlike bettors, the power ratings aren't subject to wild swings based on emotion or short term results. Just like planting seeds and adding water, Las Vegas takes the power ratings and sows them via home field advantage, if any. The town only gets in trouble in unusual situations in which the books lack substantive power ratings, like when a new league starts. The USFL was easing pickings. Incredibly easy. That's what drew me to town in the first place. Unfortunately, in the three subsequent decades the power ratings have become more readily available, in the major sports and virtually every sport. The sportsbooks don't have any shame in stealing the power ratings from online sources and blending them.
Las Vegas indeed has an opinion on every game. It's comical ignorance to believe otherwise. Their opinion is that our power ratings and 11/10 in our corner will grind a profit, since that the small edge is applied tens of thousands of times every year. They don't care about scattered outcomes that deviate from the steady grind, other than some sportsbook managers who whine often behind closed doors and occasionally for public consumption. The casino bigshots often don't appreciate that the sportsbook takes up space but doesn't match other areas in terms of percentage of profit, hence the downward pressure on sportsbook managers.
