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Updated Regular Season Win Totals

canecrazy23 said:
Do people forget that an ENOS offense put up 500 yards and 7 TD's against UL last year. Now we actually have a Real offense can you imagine what we will do to them.
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Miami fans: Who cares that we lost to FIU, Duke, and Louisiana Tech??? That was last year!! We’re going undefeated, New year baby!!!!

Also Miami fans: Louisville stinks because they stunk last year.

Makes perfect sense.
 
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I mean, it is fair to say six wins would be a spectacular failure so I’m not willing to even go there. 8-3 seems like a reasonable place to end up - lose to Clemson, a team in our same range (UNC) and our annual defeat to a much lesser program.
 
If King doesn’t have a great year we for sure go under 7, but if he is who he most people think, and we can’t go 8-2? Idk what else to say other than it’s a complete failure.
 
Ajcane8 said:
Just curious, who's the 4th loss? I'm guessing there are 2 maybe 3 games on the schedule where we are a dog - @Clem @VT and UNC. Then what? @Ville or FSU? I guess the thinking is we go 2-3 in those 5 and drop one head scratcher. If so, that would be an unmitigated disaster of a season.

I’m closer to 9-2 than 8-3.
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Pitt is a game I'd watch out for. They are the type of team that gives us trouble (gritty), and we play them the week after Clemson. The week after Clemson isn't ideal any way you slice it: if we win or play them close, it's the perfect letdown opportunity. If we get blown out, this team hasn't handled adversity well over the past few years. And Pitt should be solid.
 
Houstonhurricane said:
I mean, it is fair to say six wins would be a spectacular failure so I’m not willing to even go there. 8-3 seems like a reasonable place to end up - lose to Clemson, a team in our same range (UNC) and our annual defeat to a much lesser program.
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8-3 wouldn't be an unreasonable record, but it would probably leave me feeling very "bleh" about the year.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Clemson is what it is and then the UL game will probably not be easy.

Doubt we’re much of a favorite against VT and UNC, if at all. So potentially 4 games as either a big dog (Clemson) or at best a small favorite.

So even if we split those, we’d have to sweep the rest of the schedule, and we *should*....but we all know how that usually goes.

I think that’s how this number is derived and really with the vig being what it is, Vegas has us much more of a favorite for 8 wins vs 7.

Is 8-3 a success? I doubt you get to Charlotte with 3 losses, but anything is possible with how the schedule is set up now.
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Fair enough.

The only one I’m having a tough time wrapping my head around is Louisville. Their defense was bad last year. Really bad. Like, worse than our offense bad. Not sure what they’ve done to rectify that situation - I’d bet Saterfield did something.

But they seem to be the acc media darling this year. We’ll know in a few weeks.
 
BRO - We got some idiots here, bro, thinking that FSPoo is going to have a better record than Miami.

BOOK IT - 10-2 (both loses coming to Clemson).

razor ramon wrestling GIF by WWE
 
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Ajcane8 said:
Fair enough.

The only one I’m having a tough time wrapping my head around is Louisville. Their defense was bad last year. Really bad. Like, worse than our offense bad. Not sure what they’ve done to rectify that situation - I’d bet Saterfield did something.

But they seem to be the acc media darling this year. We’ll know in a few weeks.
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Agreed. They seem to be everyone's darling this year for sure. I think it stems from Saterfield (he's legit as ****) and that offense, and also they won 3 out of 4 to end the year including a bowl game. But yes, the defense was a train wreck last year.
 
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It is unlikely that we will be favored at VT. Obviously, we will be substantial dog vs. Clemson. The rest of the games we will be favored, at least right now. Who knows what might happen with opt outs, outbreaks, etc.

Anything less than 9-2 and a ACCCG appearance is a fail.
 
Ajcane8 said:
Fair enough.

The only one I’m having a tough time wrapping my head around is Louisville. Their defense was bad last year. Really bad. Like, worse than our offense bad. Not sure what they’ve done to rectify that situation - I’d bet Saterfield did something.

But they seem to be the acc media darling this year. We’ll know in a few weeks.
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They won 8 games, have a pretty solid returning starter at QB (along with Hawkins and Atwell, who were special last season), and people are generally positive on Satterfield as a HC. I get the reason for some of the pre-season "hype" around them.

But on the flip side, they lost their two best starters on the OL (including a 1st rounder in Becton), their defense looked pretty horrible most of 2019 (they return 7 starters, so maybe they can mature some on that end), and they need to replace their starting kicker and punter (never a good thing).

They're not a Top 25 team, but their ability to put up points will keep them in a lot of games and make them difficult to deal with for most ACC teams. Plus, they don't have Clem$on on the schedule this season. I honestly think they have a better chance of hitting their season win total (7) than f$u (also 7).
 
canecrazy23 said:
Do people forget that an ENOS offense put up 500 yards and 7 TD's against UL last year. Now we actually have a Real offense can you imagine what we will do to them.
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Does Ville have all the same players back on D? Did none of them gain experience, offseason S&C? Did they have a recruiting class? Do they have all of the same defensive coaches? Schemes?

LOL
 
JeddTheFisch said:
Does Ville have all the same players back on D? Did none of them gain experience, offseason S&C? Did they have a recruiting class? Do they have all of the same defensive coaches? Schemes?

LOL
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From their website:

While Louisville's offense should be among the best in the ACC, their defense has a ton of questions to address. In 2019, the Cardinals' defense struggled with the speed and size of teams such as Clemson, Miami, and Notre Dame. With several new players entering the program, improving the defense is a priority. So expect competition at many vital spots this spring with limited experience.
 
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No_Fly_Zone said:
They won 8 games, have a pretty solid returning starter at QB (along with Hawkins and Atwell, who were special last season), and people are generally positive on Satterfield as a HC. I get the reason for some of the pre-season "hype" around them.

But on the flip side, they lost their two best starters on the OL (including a 1st rounder in Becton), their defense looked pretty horrible most of 2019 (they return 7 starters, so maybe they can mature some on that end), and they need to replace their starting kicker and punter (never a good thing).

They're not a Top 25 team, but their ability to put up points will keep them in a lot of games and make them difficult to deal with for most ACC teams. Plus, they don't have Clem$on on the schedule this season. I honestly think they have a better chance of hitting their season win total (7) than f$u (also 7).
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Yeah, I was more so speaking on our game vs Louisville not their season total. I don’t hate them at over 7.

I was trying to figure out how we get to 7-4. Clem not being a loss would shock nearly everyone. Then @VT we might be a coin-flip dog. After that, there isn’t much teeth to the schedule. If we get to 4 losses, Louisville seems like it would have to be one of them - and I just don’t see it. (Then again, I thought I was safe penciling in GT and fiu as Ws last year...)
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I don't want to turn this into a coaching thread, but anyone who thinks Manny is even remotely considered to be removed if this team goes 8-3, you're out of your god**** mind.

I don't care what you THINK should happen. But if he goes 8-3, there is a literal 0.0% chance he's fired. And it might not even be that high.
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I don't see many (any?) HCs getting fired during/after this season at all. They all will pretty much get a pass due to the unique circumstances.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Miami fans: Who cares that we lost to FIU, Duke, and Louisiana Tech??? That was last year!! We’re going undefeated, New year baby!!!!

Also Miami fans: Louisville stinks because they stunk last year.

Makes perfect sense.
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In defense of the overly optimistic Miami fan, Miami has made a lot of improvements to their coaching staff and roster. I'm not sure what Louisville has done in the off season for me to believe that their defense won't be hot garbage again. Everyone wants to be optimistic but you have to have a reason to be besides, "new year, new team".
 
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@ Louisville, @ Clemson & @ Wake will be our toughest games.

@ Va Tech got significantly less tough when Caleb Farley opted out, he was arguably the best CB in the ACC & a potential 1st round corner, he was also the main catalyst for their whole Defense because their pass rush is average at best. They also have a brand new DC, Bud Foster retired, so the transition to a new DC will be a young guy in Justin Hamilton who has never called plays in P5 football before.

LVille won't be a tough game due to talent, it will be because Satterfield is a really good offensive coach & understands how to scheme his guys open to create big chunk yard plays. Their Defense is still devoid of talent particularly in the secondary but they're a team you have to prepare for heavy & play 4 quarters of complete football or else they'll catch you slippin.

Same with Wake, it's not talent it's Dave Clawson & Waren Ruggiero's ability to scheme & create impactful offensive productivity. But with losing Jamie Newman & their best offensive weapon in Sage Suratt they should have a loss of firepower that makes them less dangerous. They also have Paul Williams (yes that Paul William) as their CB's coach, so our WR's should eat that game lol.

Everyone will be hyping the UNC game, but we'll beat them at HR, they're the most overhyped team this offseason, that Defense is still trash.

I have us going 9-2 or 8-3, it's possible we go 10-1 but highly unlikely. I don't think we go 7-4.
 
Ajcane8 said:
Yeah, I was more so speaking on our game vs Louisville not their season total. I don’t hate them at over 7.

I was trying to figure out how we get to 7-4. Clem not being a loss would shock nearly everyone. Then @VT we might be a coin-flip dog. After that, there isn’t much teeth to the schedule. If we get to 4 losses, Louisville seems like it would have to be one of them - and I just don’t see it. (Then again, I thought I was safe penciling in GT and fiu as Ws last year...)
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I got you. And on that, I agree - I think UM should be a solid favorite over UL this season. I'd guess the media has UNC as another coin flip, and a lot of people are still hyping F$U for some reason.

Overall, part of the problem predicting season win totals is most fans only look at a schedule in binary terms (Win or Loss). Then they add up Ws and Ls and call it a day. But it's a violent game played with a funny oblong ball that bounces all sorts of unpredictable ways over the course of a season. And every season teams that are heavy favorites lose.

I always try to think of games as likelihood (%chance) to win instead. For instance, most rational fans are looking at our first four games and penciling in UM as 3-1 (UAB - Win; UL - Win; F$U - Win; Clem$on - Loss). But let's say we have a 97% chance of beating UAB, a 75% of beating UL, a 75% of beating f$u, and a 30% chance of beating Clem$on. The chances of UM having a 3-1 record would only be 49.6% ((.03 x .75 x .75 x .30) + (.97 x .25 x .75 x .3) + (.97 x .75 x .25 x .30) + (.97 x .75 x .75 x .70)). And there's about a 35% chance we end up worse than 3-1 with those numbers.

Obviously I made up the % chances and changing those numbers changes everything, but I'd bet this is closer to the sort of analysis going on in Vegas when the lines are made. Come up with the % chance to win each game, then do the math to come up with potential win totals to set the line.
 
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Hurracanes said:
That’s fair but he better not get an extension for that considering Flake’s history..
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The only extension he’s given is the standard one he gave CMR after his second season, she they went 10-3 and had put together a 15 game winning streak.
 
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