He's not getting a starting spot at Oklahoma. But for the sake of argument, let's say he buys what Riley is selling. At best it's a dogfight with Rattler til the end. If, somehow, Hurts wins the starting gig and Oklahoma drops a game or Hurts makes mistakes because of unfamiliarity with the system, all he will hear is Rattler should be the starter and he gets to replay the Tua Tagaviola experience. If he gets pulled, that's probably the end of his career. At best he goes 5th round.
At Miami with Hurts, we likely go into the ACC championship game serving as the play in game for the playoffs. Do we beat Clemson? Probably not. But if they lose Lawrence due to injury during the season, anything is possible. Even with an ACC championship game loss, if he leads Miami to an 11-1 season, Hurts shows scouts he can carry a team and has a shot at going 3rd round or earlier. He is in almost no danger of losing his job due to a bad performance.
And Rutgers doesn't have quite the national name recognition that Miami does.