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UNC GAME: Head & Gut Predictions

NC is going to use their athletic LBs to run up and try to time our snap just like Clemson did and spy king all night. If we find a way to run on that we win. If they blow 20 coverages like they seem to every week we win. If no to both of the above I don’t think we hold them enough times on D to win. I like the odds
 
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UNC is #73 in defensive YPP allowed
They are #70 in defensive scoring
They are #69 in defensive yards per attempt allowed passing
They are #59 in yards per rush allowed
They are #79 in TFLs
They are #50 in opponent 3rd down %
They are #63 in opponent red zone TD %
They have forced 9 turnovers in 9 games, and are 56th in turnover margin
They have given up TWENTY-EIGHT plays of 30+ yards on defense, good for 120th in the country
FOURTEEN plays of 40+ yards, good for 117th

Literally the only thing they do reasonably well is rush the passer, they are 17th in the country, averaging 3.22 sacks per game.

This is a BAD defense in every single regard. They get run on (55th in the country in YPG allowed rushing), they get thrown on (102nd in the country in YPG allowed passing), they get scored on (as I mentioned above), and they can't get off the field.

BUT.....they have probably the most explosive offense in the country, including Bama (NOTE: I didn't say best or most efficient, but it's the most explosive). I've said this for a few days now and I'll repeat it....I'm an offensive guy, and I VERY RARELY put the onus of a football game on anything other than the offense. It's 2020, you have to score to win. But this game is on our defense, IMO. Just limit them somewhat, and we should win going away. They're going to score. They're too good and too creative on offense, and we don't have an elite defense. They're going to get 30-ish points, minimum. So, prepare yourselves. Don't flip out if they have some success on offense. But to me, our offense is going to eat. If we lose this game 24-20, I will be BEYOND shocked. Our offense is going to chew these dudes up. So, it's on the defense to hold up their end of the bargain. They average 41 a game. 12th in the country. IMO if we hold them a TD under that number, we win. Because we're scoring close to 40 on these clowns. Jay Bateman and Tommy Thigpen are trash.
 
1st quarter will tell the tale of this game, one way or the other. I could see either team up by 17 points.
 
Win. A lot of confidence on both sides of the ball after last week. The only thing my gut is telling me is that it won't be a big enough W and the committee will probably drop us out of the top 10 (joking but could totally see it)
 
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Our offense is humming and the defense is rounding the corner. UNC's offense is good, but their D is garbage.

Think it'll be a close first half, but Canes pull away in the second half. Something like 37-21, good guys.
 
PCBcanefan said:
******* FSU found a way to beat them. We should be able to put an ever loving *** kicking on these fools.
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The FSU game was incredibly weird. If they play 10 times, UNC wins easily 9 of them.

I watched every snap of that game. FSU blocked a punt after UNCs first series, and scored on the next play.
They blocked ANOTHER punt after the 3rd series, although it didn't lead to points.
FSU then had a defensive end return an interception for a TD.
UNCs defense was terrible, as always, in the first half and gave up an additional 17 points beyond the INT TD and blocked punt set up score, and it was 31-7 FSU at the break.

UNC put up over 300 yards on them just in the 2nd half, and made a 31-7 game 31-28 late, and they dropped 3 straight passes on 2nd, 3rd, and 4th down that would have kept the drive alive for a tying FG or game winning TD, and they lost 31-28. But they just straight slept through the first half and it was 31-7 before they woke up. They dominated the **** out of the 2nd half. FSU only had about 120 yards of offense to UNC's 300+ in the 2nd half and they outscored them 21-0.

If they block 2 punts against us and return an INT for a TD with a defensive end, we'll probably lose too. But they're MUCH better than FSU, obviously. Just one of those really odd games.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
The FSU game was incredibly weird. If they play 10 times, UNC wins easily 9 of them.

I watched every snap of that game. FSU blocked a punt after UNCs first series, and scored on the next play.
They blocked ANOTHER punt after the 3rd series, although it didn't lead to points.
FSU then had a defensive end return an interception for a TD.
UNCs defense was terrible, as always, in the first half and gave up an additional 17 points beyond the INT TD and blocked punt set up score, and it was 31-7 FSU at the break.

UNC put up over 300 yards on them just in the 2nd half, and made a 31-7 game 31-28 late, and they dropped 3 straight passes on 2nd, 3rd, and 4th down that would have kept the drive alive for a tying FG or game winning TD, and they lost 31-28. But they just straight slept through the first half and it was 31-7 before they woke up. They dominated the **** out of the 2nd half. FSU only had about 120 yards of offense to UNC's 300+ in the 2nd half and they outscored them 21-0.

If they block 2 punts against us and return an INT for a TD with a defensive end, we'll probably lose too. But they're MUCH better than FSU, obviously. Just one of those really odd games.
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Yeah, in any event, we’re not getting the UNC team that showed up at FSU, I wish we were, but I think they’re gonna come in hot. Their offense is no joke. Their defense sucks, but to beat them you have to handle their offense enough.
 
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Having everyone healthy and coming off a big win really plays into the minds of this team. I think we are all still a little weary because of years of let downs. But they are bucking the trend of late, winning after bye weeks, not going on a 3 game losing streak after Clemson, not losing to teams we are supposed to beat... Roche said it best this morning on Packer and Durham this team is on a mission and they're not done yet. He also said they all understand that they have yet to play their best game. He's also ready for this game because he didn't like losing to them in their bowl game last year.
 
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RemainMack said:
I also thought UNC would put up 40 plus on us but I’m having faith that our defense is actually maturing and progressing. UNC has underachieved this year and we’re finally playing at home as well. Hopefully Im right.
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playing at home doesn’t mean as much without fans. Imagine if this was a night game with a packed stadium. Then home filed matters. We will miss Blades against this team. We need Ford, Brooks, JHH all back for this game and no new Covid issues
 
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This is the reason that I never bet, I can't separate my heart and head. I think we are on the other side and both Offense and Defense are at a new level. I think we roll big here and keep UNC in the teens as far as scoring.
 
Just win. Not knowing (both teams) who may be out makes can make predictions pointless. Head and gut says we win this one. Cane's are on an upwards track and should keep it that way
 
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