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UM +2.5

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Result of them playing at not the highest level and us playing the best we have in the last 5 years last three games
 
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They were only favored by 3 against Louisville. The oddsmakers seem to be expecting them to fold soon. Didn't pan out in the UL game as they covered easily.
 
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Little bit lower than I expected. Florida State's power rating continuing to slide is the cause. They lost another 1.5 points in the power ratings this week, after defeating Virginia by 14 as a 21 point favorite. Normally a result like that wouldn't have as much impact on the power rating, but in this case it's continuation of the season long trend. A power rating of a powerhouse from a year earlier often takes quite a bit of time to adjust downward.

Last week I checked several sources and Florida State's power rating was 6-9 points above Miami. Tonight I looked at the same reference points and now it's 4.5 to 7.5. So if you want a fairly simple route to the -2.5, take 6 points for average power rating gap, assign 2.5 points for Sun Life home advantage, and give the Canes 1 point boost for the bye week.

That may not be perfect, without being in those oddsmaker meetings, but it's close enough. Certainly more valid than all the fans who try to assert that Las Vegas numbers are ultra sophisticated and the result of specific evaluation of personnel and trends in every game. That is laughable. When you are receiving 11/10 on every game all season you don't have to be perfect and there's no time to be perfect. Another slate of games tomorrow, along with halftime numbers, etc. Power ratings are a simple method to get your numbers out there quickly and without second guessing or much vulnerability.

I was impressed that many posters here didn't take that other link at face value the other day, the one asserting that Miami would open as the favorite. For some reason the term Las Vegas carries aura and mystique. Meanwhile, the books make one gaffe after another. Lots of guys like myself who have enjoyed some success in that town did it via dependable mistakes by sportsbooks, not by any great wagering insight on our side. My systems are good but not spectacular. Designed to grind a profit. But year after year I could depend on stupidity from certain sportsbooks, like forgetting that college basketball first halves are lower scoring than second halves. When there were 30+ independent books the number of mistakes was huge. Everybody shared info and got to know the terrain, the personality of each book. Only when corporate mergers severely reduced the playing field did the number of outs decrease, and therefore the inherent edge if you knew what you were doing. Naturally anybody who merely shows up for a weekend and plops in one popular sportsbook is not going to enjoy those advantages, or have any idea they exist. That type has to play into the pure 11/10 disadvantage. Best of luck.

Besides, R.J. Bell is a nice guy but hardly ultra sharp. He was the source of that link. Somebody might have told him Florida State would be underdog. R.J. Bell wasn't energetic or instinctive or smart enough to check another source, a superior source. There are different levels of competence in Las Vegas, just like everywhere else. If Jay Kornegay had said Miami would be favored, then I'll pay attention.

At least it's becoming understood that bye weeks are important in college football. For some reason lots of Canes fans scoffed earlier this season when Al Golden spotlighted bye weeks, like Duke having the extra week to prepare for Georgia Tech. It's the media's fault for not emphasizing how important it can be. Bye weeks in the NFL are hit and miss. Some advantage spots, like road favorites faring better than typical but some areas performing below average. In college football it's a benefit. Great boost this season to slot bye weeks prior to Virginia Tech and Florida State. It was probably unintentional or a coincidence.

I remember when the Canes specialized in that type of thing. Sam Jankovich was very bright and ahead of his time in understanding and utilizing bye weeks. The Canes in 1983 played 11 consecutive weekends. They got away with it but I remember Jankovich saying the schedule had to be improved. As an independent Miami had tons of leeway. Sure enough, by 1986 Miami had bye weeks prior to both Oklahoma and Florida State. Brilliant. Likewise two years later in 1988 when Miami had three bye weeks, all preceding huge road games at Michigan, Notre Dame and LSU. Then in 1989 we had a bye prior to the road game at Florida State. It didn't always work. You'll never hit 100% against foes of that caliber. But Jankovich understood how to apply the vital 2-3% edge to our side. I started to worry once he was gone and we were stuck in the Big East, without as much control. In 1992 we had back to back road games at Florida State and Penn State. Then once we joined the ACC and it adopted the conference title game, now you've got a cemented date at the end of the season and therefore fewer weeks to finish the 11 or 12 games. This is one of the rare seasons in which our schedule has been helpful, other than the Fury of Anti-Revenge opener at Louisville.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see which way the sharp guys take this number. One group routinely plays big on Tuesday, shifting many spreads a point or two. This number already seems low.
 
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2.5 is such a weak number the game is basically a pick em ... Sharp money or not this have to go to 3 or above anything from 2.5 down is mute
 
While i give no credit to guys like rj and jay.... I will tell you his info was pretty much spot on miami plus 2.5 is basically close enough to being a fav to me
 
Early movement looks like it's moving down....-1.5 in a lot places. Also, am I crazy or is the money line look like a pick em game?
 
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Hate this on multiple fronts. Don't need to give them any bulletin board material, wanted to place a huge ML bet on Canes and don't need any idiots claiming we were actually favored in this game when we're reminiscing about the win 10 years from now.
 
I will probably move like 5 times before saturday! before stablizing around 2.5 to 3.5.
 
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