UM +2.5

[edge3241]

Down to 1 now in some places....

Wow! They're trying to encourage money on FSU because people were loading up on UM at +2.5.

The public is actually betting 75% on FSU. So the public is betting FSU and Vegas is adjusting the line the other way for a home underdog. Essentially, Vegas is extremely confident in Miami winning this game. Only thing that gives me hope

 

[BigCaneAl]

Down to 1 now in some places....

Wow! They're trying to encourage money on FSU because people were loading up on UM at +2.5.

The public is actually betting 75% on FSU. So the public is betting FSU and Vegas is adjusting the line the other way for a home underdog. Essentially, Vegas is extremely confident in Miami winning this game. Only thing that gives me hope

Is that 75% count or sum? Could mean big money is coming in on canes while general smaller betting public is on the Noles.

 

[edge3241]

Down to 1 now in some places....

Wow! They're trying to encourage money on FSU because people were loading up on UM at +2.5.

The public is actually betting 75% on FSU. So the public is betting FSU and Vegas is adjusting the line the other way for a home underdog. Essentially, Vegas is extremely confident in Miami winning this game. Only thing that gives me hope

Is that 75% count or sum? Could mean big money is coming in on canes while general smaller betting public is on the Noles.

Count, not sum. So that could be the case.

 

[The Franchise]

Down to 1 now in some places....

Wow! They're trying to encourage money on FSU because people were loading up on UM at +2.5.

The public is actually betting 75% on FSU. So the public is betting FSU and Vegas is adjusting the line the other way for a home underdog. Essentially, Vegas is extremely confident in Miami winning this game. Only thing that gives me hope

That makes no sense. Vegas adjusts the line in response to money and money only, so the big money must be coming in on UM if that 75% number is accurate.

 

[westcoastcanes]

assign 2.5 points for Sun Life home advantage

but interesting post

 

[edge3241]

Down to 1 now in some places....

Wow! They're trying to encourage money on FSU because people were loading up on UM at +2.5.

The public is actually betting 75% on FSU. So the public is betting FSU and Vegas is adjusting the line the other way for a home underdog. Essentially, Vegas is extremely confident in Miami winning this game. Only thing that gives me hope

That makes no sense. Vegas adjusts the line in response to money and money only, so the big money must be coming in on UM if that 75% number is accurate.

http://www.thespread.com/ncaa-college-football-public-betting-chart#.VGJfivnF9wY It's halfway down the page. It's 80% FSU, 20% Miami. Vegas tends to do this for road underdogs where they think the public is off. Right off the bat when the line came out at 2.5 they knew the public would be all over FSU. The fact they are going the other way implies either someone is putting real big money on Miami or Vegas is very confident the Canes will win and or cover.

 

[itsacanething]

Down to 1 now in some places....

Wow! They're trying to encourage money on FSU because people were loading up on UM at +2.5.

The public is actually betting 75% on FSU. So the public is betting FSU and Vegas is adjusting the line the other way for a home underdog. Essentially, Vegas is extremely confident in Miami winning this game. Only thing that gives me hope

That makes no sense. Vegas adjusts the line in response to money and money only, so the big money must be coming in on UM if that 75% number is accurate.

http://www.thespread.com/ncaa-college-football-public-betting-chart#.VGJfivnF9wY It's halfway down the page. It's 80% FSU, 20% Miami. Vegas tends to do this for road underdogs where they think the public is off. Right off the bat when the line came out at 2.5 they knew the public would be all over FSU. The fact they are going the other way implies either someone is putting real big money on Miami or Vegas is very confident the Canes will win and or cover.

the only thing plausible is general public going fsu and big money going Miami. otherwise the line would be moving the other direction.

 

[The Franchise]

Down to 1 now in some places....

Wow! They're trying to encourage money on FSU because people were loading up on UM at +2.5.

The public is actually betting 75% on FSU. So the public is betting FSU and Vegas is adjusting the line the other way for a home underdog. Essentially, Vegas is extremely confident in Miami winning this game. Only thing that gives me hope

That makes no sense. Vegas adjusts the line in response to money and money only, so the big money must be coming in on UM if that 75% number is accurate.

http://www.thespread.com/ncaa-college-football-public-betting-chart#.VGJfivnF9wY It's halfway down the page. It's 80% FSU, 20% Miami. Vegas tends to do this for road underdogs where they think the public is off. Right off the bat when the line came out at 2.5 they knew the public would be all over FSU. The fact they are going the other way implies either someone is putting real big money on Miami or Vegas is very confident the Canes will win and or cover.

Bookmakers don't have crystal balls, and they don't guess like that. They adjust lines based on dollars to even stuff out. They, unlike their customers, don't gamble.

 

[edge3241]

That is always how I understood it too. However, I follow these lines and how the public and vegas reacts each week. Usually there is one or two games a week where this happens and it's always a home dog. Even though these plays don't always work out, they hit more than ordinary. A few good friends of mine who are high end sports betters made me aware of this so tfwiw.

Another thought I have is if Vegas was trying to get a 50/50 split on this game from the public, why would they ever put FSU as only a 2 1/2 point favorite to start? They knew the public would jump on FSU so there has to be more to this than them just trying to collect their fee.

 

[Cal jimmy]

Unranked UM vs "mighty" #2 and is a near pick em?

I would have figured 7+ as mentioned earlier. If UM was playing whoever is a #17 would UM be a favorite?

 

[The Franchise]

That is always how I understood it too. However, I follow these lines and how the public and vegas reacts each week. Usually there is one or two games a week where this happens and it's always a home dog. Even though these plays don't always work out, they hit more than ordinary. A few good friends of mine who are high end sports betters made me aware of this so tfwiw.

Another thought I have is if Vegas was trying to get a 50/50 split on this game from the public, why would they ever put FSU as only a 2 1/2 point favorite to start? They knew the public would jump on FSU so there has to be more to this than them just trying to collect their fee.

I doubt they care about the general public. They care about the total amount of money bet by the public and by whales.

 

[TallyCane]

I thought it would be a 7 or 7.5

 

[Cane Dynasty]

Right back to where it started.

 

[HighSeas]

Vegas cleans up on these primetime games so there's a reason why Miami is favored/slight underdog. That reason is the simple fact that Miami has been running the ball well and taking care of the football, while FSU has done neither recently. Supposed "talent level" and past long-term success/failure is irrelevant compared to how the teams are structured and match-up. FSU does not match up well with Miami this year, especially relative to past years/match-ups.

Miami - 45
FSU - 41
then I get to change my avatar

Also Vegas doesn't adjust spreads based on dollar movement alone. The best plays every week are the games where the public $ is on one side and the line moves in the opposite direction.

 

[PopeJackson]

Easy money. Golden is a loser, there was no way we were gonna win with that piece of **** at the helm.