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Two simple rules for recruiting QBs

DMoney

DMoney

D-Moni
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I've spent way too much time studying why quarterbacks hit or flop. Of course, you need baseline arm talent and size. And work ethic is another non-negotiable. But from what I've found, the separators are often athleticism and instincts.

There are so many kids with private QB coaches who flourish in camp settings, but struggle in real games. Jake Garcia is a recent example. Conversely, there are a lot of instinctive athletes who improve their passing skills with full-time coaching in college. The things you can't get by training-- reactive movement, competitive reps -- are readily available by playing other sports.

My rule of thumb is that a quarterback needs to be: (1) a multisport athlete; or (2) if he's a football-only guy, a legitimate dual-threat with major running ability. There are always exceptions, but in this case I wouldn't make many. Our most recent superstar QB was a multisport zero star (Cam Ward), and the last great quarterback we had (Ken Dorsey) got offered by Butch Davis at a high school basketball game.

The top QBs in the NFL- Pat Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, CJ Stroud- all fit into this framework.

Am I being too simplistic here?









 
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IMO you're never really going to solve this puzzle. If you could, the NFL would have done it long ago, and all they're doing is throwing **** at the wall and seeing what sticks as far as picking QBs.

I like some of your pre-qualifiers, but honestly, it's the most nuanced and cerebral position in all of sports. You simply have to be "wired" correctly, and even if you are from a cerebral standpoint, you have to have "feel" that cannot be taught. The only way to find out if you have it or not is to play football in real football games with real lights and real big people on the other side who want to end your life on every snap.

And the Peter Principle is exemplified in full on a football field. Because you were a successful HS Quarterback makes no guarantees to college. Because you had "it" in college translates zero to the NFL. You simply have to get into the arena, and do it, before anyone knows how it's going to work out.

So I'm all for doing what you're doing....compile as much data as possible, make as an informed decision as you can. But it is quite simply THE MOST difficult position in all of sports to project from one level to the next. There is no magic bullet you're going to find. Recruit the best athletes you can who have the best grasp of the game and who want to be great, and hold your breath. That's what the guys who get paid a lot of money to perform this exercise are essentially doing at the professional level.
 
Being a successful QB is more like a formulaic balance.

A weak armed QB, can be successful, if he has high IQ and lives in the film room.

A slow bad athlete, can be successful, if he has a rocket arm and good accuracy.

A qb who can't read a defense consistently, can be successful, if he is an elite athlete who can improvise.

There are many factors that create a balance like formula. Sticking to one data point only will lead to rigid results.

But to me, the most important characteristic, is the intangibles. IQ and leadership. As long as you have one of the other + skills, you can be a really good QB.
 
DMoney said:
I've spent way too much time studying why quarterbacks hit or flop. Of course, you need baseline arm talent and size. And work ethic is another non-negotiable. But from what I've found, the separators are often athleticism and instincts.

There are so many kids with private QB coaches who flourish in camp settings, but struggle in real games. Jake Garcia is a recent example. Conversely, there are a lot of instinctive athletes who improve their passing skills with full-time coaching in college. The things you can't get by training-- reactive movement, competitive reps -- are readily available by playing other sports.

My rule of thumb is that a quarterback needs to be: (1) a multisport athlete; or (2) if he's a football-only guy, a legitimate dual-threat with major running ability. There are always exceptions, but in this case I wouldn't make many. Our most recent superstar QB was a multisport zero star (Cam Ward), and the last great quarterback we had (Ken Dorsey) got offered by Butch Davis at a high school basketball game.

The top QBs in the NFL- Pat Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, CJ Stroud- all fit into this framework.

Am I being too simplistic here?









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I put work ethic to the top of the list. TVD was a great two sport athlete, but did he have Cam’s work ethic. All 4-5 stars have been told how great they are since they were 12 yo. The kid who comes into college and throws that all away and keeps improving getting better. Get to the pros. This goes for all positions. Talent keeps improving as you move up, not improving and getting better is what separates great players.
 
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JHallCanes said:
There’s a reason why Pat Mahomes and Brock Purdy are two of the highest paid players on the planet

There is no rhyme or reason to it

probably lends heavily to work ethic and mentality
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My focus in the OP is more about excluding guys.

Just because you fit one of those two categories doesn't mean you will succeed. But if you don't fit either, it seems the odds of greatness go down considerably.
 
DMoney said:
My focus in the OP is more about excluding guys.

Just because you fit one of those two categories doesn't mean you will succeed. But if you don't fit either, it seems the odds of greatness go down considerably.
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No doubt. Thought your OP was good stuff

Just wanting to take a second to say again why I’ve always said Cam would be successful in the NFL even when people continue to bash his “hero ball” style

Some of these guys are just wired differently
 
DMoney said:
My focus in the OP is more about excluding guys.

Just because you fit one of those two categories doesn't mean you will succeed. But if you don't fit either, it seems the odds of greatness go down considerably.
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sure. Brad Kayaa wasn't in either and made it to the NFL, then gave it up after back surgery.

We can also name off a ton of false positives.
 
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DMoney said:
I've spent way too much time studying why quarterbacks hit or flop. Of course, you need baseline arm talent and size. And work ethic is another non-negotiable. But from what I've found, the separators are often athleticism and instincts.

There are so many kids with private QB coaches who flourish in camp settings, but struggle in real games. Jake Garcia is a recent example. Conversely, there are a lot of instinctive athletes who improve their passing skills with full-time coaching in college. The things you can't get by training-- reactive movement, competitive reps -- are readily available by playing other sports.

My rule of thumb is that a quarterback needs to be: (1) a multisport athlete; or (2) if he's a football-only guy, a legitimate dual-threat with major running ability. There are always exceptions, but in this case I wouldn't make many. Our most recent superstar QB was a multisport zero star (Cam Ward), and the last great quarterback we had (Ken Dorsey) got offered by Butch Davis at a high school basketball game.

The top QBs in the NFL- Pat Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, CJ Stroud- all fit into this framework.

Am I being too simplistic here?









Click to expand...

It’s only if the game is slow for them and they can feel pressure and make plays. Are they throwing early and seeing things before they happen. Can they escape and do the exact same thing. Is the game slow for them?

If you have that along with an arm and accuracy you are good to go. The question is can you do while the defensive talent gets faster and faster as each level. Then you have a qb. If they start to struggle at each level they reach then it’s to fast for them pause. They can have success but are they a true qb that can make others better and carry a team. You can never tell till they are on the field and bullets are flying. That’s why it’s a crap shoot and roll of the dice
 
A few thoughts as I am around a lot of good QBs in SoCal and around our QB Coach who has a number of kids starting in college (Aiden Chiles, Justyn Martin, Jalon Daniels, Kadin Semonza to name a few in D1 and there are more and a ton of backups as well).

Most of the top kids can throw the ball - yes velocity differs with guys but the D1 guys we are all looking at - can sling it. The difference on most throws is not material - because very few big deep balls are thrown in a game. But where I see things is when things break down whose accuracy and footwork hold up. That's huge.

But most importantly what I've seen is mentality and some guys are mentally just built different. Like Cam and Dorsey they are just different guys. The guys above are all great ball players but there's one kid who I freaking love who is the QB that signed with Wake Forest - Steele Pizzella. He's not a Miami guy frankly because he's 5'11 and 190 but I've watched all these guys and a number of others top 100 kid who signed with big programs over the last 4 years and I'm watching all the top 26,27, 28 and 29 kids as well and he's got a mentality that reminds me of the top guys. He may never play in college or get moved to WR like Edelman, he's not big, he's a true freshman who just go there for spring and he's now 3rd string but the way he prepares and practices - he's built different. Not to mention he was the fastest QB in CA last year and runs 4.45. Every throw is calculated, every movement is precise, he's directing the WRs, he's a step ahead even when the older kids come back and we get a bunch of D1/D2 guys out there. He's no nonsense in practice - he's dialed in. He's a top athelte and runs track but his approach, how he speaks, you can really see a difference.

I think the big thing is some guys just want to be great. Other guys are naturally built, can sling it, and have been better than everyone their whole life but it came easy. They've been coddled, nutured, told they were amazing and they are great but they have th ability to be even better but don't put that last 10-15% in. They could work at 100% and crush everyone but with 10-15% more effort and a killer instict they are like Cam, Dorsey, etc.

We train with another QB Coach sometimes and he played a little bit in the NFL and he played one year of HS because the starter was there, his college he played his last year because the guy in front played 4 years. He made it the NFL because he's freaking smart and the little nuances he tells us about kept him there - Big dude too, rocket arm, patiencly waited got a shot and knew every play to be successful.

You have to want to be great, make significant sacrifices at the expense of having fun, relationships, going out, being a teenager or a college kid. Some guys are great but don't have the desire to truly be GREAT.
 
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DMoney said:
I love Kaaya and think he’s been underrated here. But if he had a major weakness, it was athleticism.
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I don't disagree at all.

The issues are false negatives ( a few like Brad) and false positives (lots) show that these two methods alone leave lots of room for error.
 
jdg3158 said:
You have to want to be great, make significant sacrifices at the expense of having fun, relationships, going out, being a teenager or a college kid. Some guys are great but don't have the desire to truly be GREAT.
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Scott Covington comes to mind. He had the talent to play. Just wasn't 100% focused on being that guy at QB.
 
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