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Turnovers in 2018

scrantoncane

scrantoncane

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I read a comment where a poster predicted we wouldn't be as good this season because we wouldn't cause/create as many turnovers. It got me thinking, will we?

We caused 31 turnovers last year - 14 fumble recoveries and 17 interceptions. For reference, we lost 4 fumbles and threw 14 INTs, for a +15 margin - good for (t) 5th in the nation.

While my initial gut feeling was "no, we have to go down," I am not so sure. Assuming no changes to the style and playcalling, there is no reason the aggression shouldn't continue to cause TOs. Conversely, it leaves us suspect to gaps, holes, big plays, etc. But I, and many others here, would prefer to err on the side of aggression (a byproduct of the D'Nof years).

What does everyone think? Will we continue at our current pace, or will it come back to earth a little?
 
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Once you get accustomed to making turnovers the culture usually carries over. The players who made them are still here
 
Turnovers are such a slippery stat to track, because so much goes into them. Sometimes a turnover is absolutely the result of a brilliant defensive play - Garvin's strip/sack/fumble recovery, Bandy's pick-6, etc. Sometimes it's a dumb play by the offense - QB throwing a duck, muffed punt, etc. Sometimes it's just dumb luck. My main focus would be that our general turnover stats remain relatively consistent year-to-year (i.e. we don't drop from 5th to 117th or something) and that from an "eye test" perspective we're still playing with the kind of mentality that *creates* turnovers, if that makes sense.
 
Aggressive teams that are instructed to go after turnovers tend to get lots of turnovers. Maybe they won't quite match last year's number but even if the number drops, it won't be by much.
 
I’m more concerned w converting our TOs into points (7). I’m also more concerned w 3rd down conversions on both the O and D, and most importantly, limiting our TOs (ints) at the most inopportune times.
 
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If our O can be more efficient and score more, I believe it will put pressure on other teams, and the number could very well go up. But like ghost2 said, a lot of turnovers are unforced errors and we have no way of knowing how many of those we will get. However, when your team has a knack of getting the ball, they tend to get those unforced errors as opposed to stumbling all around the ball and letting a golden opportunity go down the drain. There is NOTHING worse than seeing 4-5 players around a loose football, and none of them coming up with it. That seemed to happen less last year than any season in recent memory. A lot less.
 
Teams will focus more on trying not to turn the ball over against us, but turnovers aren't anything anyone prepares to give in a game. Its a right time right place, stars and moons aligned type thing. With the schemes and playing calling if continued this season I see no reason why the numbers shouldn't be nice. If we are hunting for it taking those risk, they will come
 
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I feel the numbers will be around the same zip code. I want to see a jump in 3rd down on both sides of the ball to go along with the turnover chain.
 
OBLIVION said:
I feel the numbers will be around the same zip code. I want to see a jump in 3rd down on both sides of the ball to go along with the turnover chain.
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Congratz on the mod tag. Just noticed it.

Looks like D$ is down to let the inmates run the asylum huh?:black-eyed:
 
I am not sure if it will be the same or lower, I doubt it goes up but the thing I want to see us do a lot more of is turning them into points. We might have had 31 turnovers last year but I'd bet we had less than 31 points off of those turnovers.
 
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We will no doubt have more non-called holding plays against us than turnovers and we are going to have quite a few turnovers.
 
Fumbles are a tough one because it's literally changed by the way the ball bounces. There's a lot of luck involved. That play against VT where the ball bounced right into RJ's arms doesn't happen that way too often. I'd expect that number to go down by a couple. Hopefully the INT number goes up though.
 
Don’t hold your breath on getting that amount of turnovers again. Three to four a game is just nuts , and we needed everyone of them.
 
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RiDLer80 said:
Fumbles are a tough one because it's literally changed by the way the ball bounces. There's a lot of luck involved. That play against VT where the ball bounced right into RJ's arms doesn't happen that way too often. I'd expect that number to go down by a couple. Hopefully the INT number goes up though.
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I’ve always said it’s luck to a degree, the law of averages always comes back around. Normally as soon as the next year.

I always use the Saints SB year and the Gators title team in 08. Both survived on an ungodly amount of turnovers, the next year neither got anywhere close. Saints didn’t make the playoffs and the Gators dropped four games.

It’s kindve of flukie.
 
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Champ said:
Teams will focus more on trying not to turn the ball over against us, but turnovers aren't anything anyone prepares to give in a game. Its a right time right place, stars and moons aligned type thing. With the schemes and playing calling if continued this season I see no reason why the numbers shouldn't be nice. If we are hunting for it taking those risk, they will come
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I agree, I live in Texas I talk to a lot of people who absolutely fear the Canes. Man I’m telling you that **** turnover chain has had a major psychological effect on our opponents.

I’m expecting teams to change their whole game plan and go real conservative like boxers use to do against Floyd. It won’t change the outcome though, chain still coming out.
 
Champ said:
Teams will focus more on trying not to turn the ball over against us, but turnovers aren't anything anyone prepares to give in a game. Its a right time right place, stars and moons aligned type thing. With the schemes and playing calling if continued this season I see no reason why the numbers shouldn't be nice. If we are hunting for it taking those risk, they will come
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I kind of had the same thought. Teams don’t want to see the turnover chain, and might be extra careful to not turn the ball over. However, that would inevitably lead to teams being overly cautious, and that is not a good thing. If we are in their heads to the point if them being extra careful, it’s a win for us.
 
Those turnovers weren't just dumb luck, we didn't accidentally get those fumbles & INT's, they were forced.

Our team didn't have a lot of turnovers in the 2016 season, so the Defense went into 2017 with the clear cut objective to force more turnovers. That's where the Turnover chain idea came from, Diaz, Rumph & Banda thinking of something to incentivize the Defense to be more hungry & have something to rally around.

It was strategic, not random. Bandy didn't just wander into that lane, he knew where the Ball was going before it was thrown & housed it. Go watch all the fumbles we had last year, the ball carrier didn't just drop it, our guys hit or knocked the ball out of their possession.

Will we have as many as we did last year, who knows? But TO's are apart of the identity of a Defense, it's a concerted effort to create them as much as possible. Usually, whichever team wins the turnover battle wins the game.

We have more depth in the Secondary, sucks we won't have Malek this season but I think they'll be fine. The LB corps is deep spearheaded by veteran leadership of Shaq & Pinckney. The only real question is how much will losing 4 starters on the DLine impact us? Can Coach Simpson get Willis, Bethel, Ford, Silvera, Miller & Tito to all play lights out? I believe he will.

I expect major improvements on 3rd down as well. Also, we're probably going to have to score more on Defense this year too.
 
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